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ACUS11 KWNS 172105
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172104
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-172330-
Mesoscale Discussion 1507
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0404 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Areas affected...eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and
northwest Nebraska
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 172104Z - 172330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are likely to develop and move eastward across
eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota and northwest Nebraska.
Storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. A watch
issuance is possible.
DISCUSSION...Building Cu are evident across eastern Wyoming along
the western edge of the MCD, and this Cu field is expected to
develop into storms and move eastward this evening. Effective bulk
shear of 40-50 knots and MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg will support
supercell development, although some upscale growth is likely around
the Black Hills/vicinity later this evening. Given the CAPE/shear,
large hail is possible with any storm and steepening low-level lapse
rates and LCLs approaching 3 km could result in damaging wind gusts.
A severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible late this afternoon
into the evening.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...
LAT...LON 42450618 43110656 44340686 44680702 44870686 44950589
44980426 44870348 44320298 43530261 43050266 42280312
42080348 41960425 41800508 41880590 42450618
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