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ACUS11 KWNS 172059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172058
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1506
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...portions of northeast/east-central MO into
west-central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517...

Valid 172058Z - 172230Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 517
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind gusts will continue to be a concern with
storms tracking southeast across portions of northeast to
east-central MO into west-central IL the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Strong to severe thunderstorms associated with a bowing
QLCS is continuing to advance southeast along a tight instability
gradient. Several reports of wind damage and estimated wind speeds
as high as 70 mph have been noted over the last hour or so across
far southeast IA. Downstream of the bow echo, a hot and very moist
boundary layer is in place and low level lapse rates have increased.
Additional CU development has been noted in vis satellite loop just
ahead of the line with some isolated thunderstorms now evident.
Effective shear around 25-35 kt as far south as roughly the I-70
corridor will help maintain organization and stronger low level
lapse rates may help to increase damaging wind potential. The bow is
expected to continue tracking southeast along the instability
gradient at around 30-40 mph. This should bring the toward the St.
Louis Metro vicinity in the next couple of hours, along with a
threat for damaging winds in current intensity is maintained.
Depending on trends, a new watch may be needed downstream of WW 517

..Leitman.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...

LAT...LON   40578981 40148937 39688920 39058924 38518987 38409051
            38479131 38929220 39679251 40019232 40179174 40319146
            40499114 40849112 40969087 40578981



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