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ACUS11 KWNS 172042
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172041
NDZ000-MTZ000-172315-

Mesoscale Discussion 1505
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0341 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern Montana and western North
Daktoa

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172041Z - 172315Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms are developing across far eastern Montana into far
western North Dakota. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary
threats and a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Storms are developing along a surface front stretching
generally east-west across western North Dakota into eastern
Montana. A belt of mid-level 40 knot westerlies is moving over the
region with multiple embedded disturbances noted in satellite
imagery stretching across Montana and North Dakota. Low-level
moisture was not completely scoured out behind the front with
surface dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s to low 60s and strong
diabatic heating resulted in temperatures in to the 80s F. As a
result, MLCAPE of 500-1000+ J/kg has developed and strong
unidirectional flow through the vertical column has produced
effective bulk shear of 35-45 knots. A few supercells are possible
including splitting storms given the long hodographs. Given this
environment, large hail and damaging wind gusts may occur. A watch
issuance is possible, although storm coverage/intensity may fall
just below watch criteria.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BIS...BYZ...GGW...

LAT...LON   46030449 46380579 46750610 47170604 47720558 48250439
            48560303 48690210 48280172 47310165 46440184 46030212
            46010332 46010421 46030449



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