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ACUS11 KWNS 172029
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 172029
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-172230-

Mesoscale Discussion 1504
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0329 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...far eastern ND into northwest MN and far northeast
SD

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 172029Z - 172230Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to increase in
coverage late this afternoon and evening. A watch may be needed for
portions of northwest MN into far eastern ND and northeast SD.

DISCUSSION...A CU field across the MCD area has progressively become
more agitated this afternoon as strong heating has resulted in
1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE to the south and west of a northward advancing
warm front. A 19z RAOB from ABR indicated some subsidence may have
been impacting the region on the back side of a shortwave
impulse/MCV that tracked across the region early this morning. Based
on latest water vapor imagery, moisture appears to be moving back
toward the region ahead of the next shortwave impulse. As ascent
increases over the MCD area by early evening, additional
thunderstorm development is expected. This development could occur
in the vicinity of the warm front across northern MN and/or in a
zone of low level convergence along a surface trough extending
across western MN to a weak surface low over eastern SD. Any storms
that form in this area will have a moderately unstable environment
and effective shear of 35-45 kt to work with, allowing for organized
storms clusters capable of damaging wind and hail. Additionally,
backed low level easterly winds in the vicinity of the warm front
and the surface trough are enhancing low level SRH to around 150-250
m2/s2 across portions of the region. This could result in a tornado
threat with any stronger, more discrete cells that can develop.
Trends will be monitored and a watch may be needed for portions of
the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.

..Leitman/Guyer.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   49389469 48449382 47449335 45879445 44959572 44909683
            45139767 45649814 47049813 48899757 49149627 49149533
            49419532 49389469



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