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ACUS11 KWNS 172000
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171959
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-172200-
Mesoscale Discussion 1503
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019
Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516...
Valid 171959Z - 172200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 516
continues.
SUMMARY...The severe risk continues across WW516 with damaging wind
as the primary threat.
DISCUSSION...Storms continue to develop and move east-northeast from
Pennsylvania into southern New England this afternoon. Per radar
imagery, a mixed storm mode is evident with a few weaker, transient
supercells observed along the northern/northeast portions of WW516
where shear is stronger (30-35 knots effective bulk shear). Storms
are likely to develop south/east of current storms and merge
throughout the afternoon and evening with some clustering and
upscale growth likely. Damaging wind remains the primary severe
threat as low-level lapse rates steepen due to insolation and with
any QLCS that forms into the evening. The severe threat will
diminish west to east later this afternoon and into the evening.
..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 41857668 42207569 42677327 42787125 42737096 42337065
41887058 41577064 41137084 40907119 40677181 40397251
40267286 40057347 39957395 39897427 39857463 39837490
39827520 39867564 39917606 39997632 40167655 40617676
41857668
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