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AWUS01 KWNH 171946
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-VTZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-NJZ000-180145-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0623
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Southern New England

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171945Z - 180145Z

Summary...Thunderstorms developing across southern New England
will be efficient rain producers and capable of producing hourly
totals up to 2". Some localized flash flooding will be possible
through early evening as a result.

Discussion...GOES IR imagery now showing rapidly cooling cloud
tops with convection that is moving across portions of
east-central NY into southern New England as of 1930Z this
afternoon. Area radar estimates also show hourly totals now
approaching 1" or more with a couple recent mesonet observations
with around 1.5" in 1-hr totals.

The air mass is very conducive for locally heavy rainfall and
potentially flash flooding, characterized by anomalously high PWs
(1.8-2.0"; 2-3 SD above the climatological mean) within more than
sufficient instability (2000-3000 J/kg SBCAPE). Combined with
large scale forcing for ascent from the right entrance region of a
jet streak over southern Canada and the remnants of Barry
approaching from the west, the ingredients are in place for heavy
rainfall this afternoon.

Efficient rain producing thunderstorms are expected to continue
through early evening given the tropical air mass (warm cloud
depths > 4 km) and tall/skinny instability profiles seen in
forecast soundings. The mean flow is nearly parallel to the storm
motions, so some repeating rounds and backbuilding will be
possible. Expect hourly totals up to 1.5-2" locally with totals
through 03Z 2-3" with some localized 4" amounts possible. The 12Z
HREF shows 30 percent probabilities of 2" in 1 hour across
southern New England this afternoon (MA/CT/RI) with moderate to
high probabilities of 1" in 1 hour through early evening.

This type of rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding,
particularly over urban and more sensitive areas.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...GYX...OKX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   42887199 42867137 42737070 42337088 42137070
            41997068 41557063 41537122 41467158 41417207
            41337251 41287275 41157329 41037348 40937368
            40927393 41207418 41347440 41747450 42117435
            42697379 42867276


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