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ACUS11 KWNS 171759
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171759
ILZ000-IAZ000-MOZ000-172000-

Mesoscale Discussion 1502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...southeast IA...northeast MO and far west-central IL

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515...

Valid 171759Z - 172000Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515
continues.

SUMMARY...Damaging wind threat may be increasing, particularly
across parts of south-central into southeast IA. Trends being
monitored for possible downstream watch across parts of northeast MO
into far west-central IL.

DISCUSSION...After another lull in intensity, the bowing QLCS
tracking east/southeast into eastern and southern IA appears to be
undergoing intensification once again early this afternoon. As
temperatures have warmed into the upper 80s to low 90s ahead of the
convection across northeast MO into southeast IA, capping has eroded
and storms are likely now tapping into the strong surface-based
instability, fed by low to mid 70s surface dewpoints. At midday, the
outflow associated with these storms appeared to be advancing ahead
of the convection. Latest radar loop shows that convection has once
again developed and intensified along the outflow. Furthermore,
effective shear has increased some, with values now in the 35-50 kt
range as far south and east as northeast MO and far west-central IL.
Investigation of the DMX VWP supports this increase in deep layer
shear. As the southern portions of the bowing segment has become
better organized, convection has become re-oriented once again along
the instability gradient and tracking southeast into southeasterly
low level flow from Lucas County IA into northeast MO. Expect a
relatively greater threat for damaging wind gusts to translate
southeast along this corridor over the next couple of hours.
Additional development is possible across northern MO as area of
midlevel CU shifts east into weaker capping. A new watch may need to
be considered downstream of WW 515 across parts of northeast MO and
west-central IL.

Additional strengthening has also been noted further north with the
segment of the line heading eastward toward Fayette to Linn Counties
in eastern IA. While instability and effective shear are a bit more
modest across this area, conditions remain favorable for a continued
severe threat across eastern IA toward the MS River through this
afternoon.

..Leitman.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   42729242 42709205 42459135 41939066 41469030 41019020
            40579022 40129030 39559087 39419156 39579236 40159382
            40739442 41019436 41689307 42199262 42729242



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