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ACUS02 KWNS 171717
SWODY2
SPC AC 171717

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN BORDER EASTWARD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN...

...SUMMARY...
Areas of severe storms are possible mainly across Wisconsin and
Lower Michigan on Thursday.

...Synopsis...
A belt of moderate to strong westerlies will stretch from the
Pacific Northwest eastward across the Northern Plains and Great
Lakes, with low amplitude waves moving through the flow. One wave
will move across WI and MI during early in the day in association
with a complex of thunderstorms, with neutral to slightly rising
height tendencies for the rest of the day as the air mass recovers.
Height falls will occur over the Northern Plains later in the day,
as the primary midlevel speed max develops across MT and ND.

At the surface, a broad region of low pressure will exist over the
northern Plains and Upper MS Valley, with a convectively reinforced
warm front from MN across WI and into Lower MI. A very moist and
extremely unstable air mass will develop with heating and mid to
upper 70s F dewpoints, conditionally supporting areas of severe
storms throughout the period.

...WI/MI and vicinity...
Models show an early day MCS affecting much of central WI, which
will then move into MI. This system will likely produce strong
winds, with significant outflow, and may rejuvenate with heating
into Lower MI. The tail end of the line may extend into northern IL.
Strong heating and air mass recover is then expected across the
region, aided by 30+ kt southwesterly 850 mb winds, with strong to
extreme instability developing. New development is anticipated late
in the day and into the evening, along or north of the residual
outflow, from the MS River across parts of WI and MI. The exact
corridor is difficult to ascertain, but damaging winds and hail
appear likely given a focus for development and such strong
instability. The Slight Risk area will likely be adjusted in future
outlooks as predictability increases.

...Dakotas into northwest MN...
Isolated storms are forecast to develop throughout the day in
association with a wind shift, beneath lengthy hodographs. Strong
heating will occur upstream of this area, which will support
boundary layer mixing and erosion of CIN. Isolated hail appears to
be the main concern.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:   2%     - Marginal
Wind:     15%     - Slight
Hail:      5%     - Marginal

..Jewell.. 07/17/2019

$$


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