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AWUS01 KWNH 171706
FFGMPD
MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-172305-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0622
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
105 PM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Southern NY...PA...Western MD...Northern WV

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171705Z - 172305Z

Summary...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms developing this
afternoon will pose a flash flood risk. Hourly totals up to 2"
will be possible at times.

Discussion...The latest GOES IR imagery shows convective cloud
tops beginning to cool across western/central PA and is confirmed
by regional radar mosaic showing an uptick in thunderstorm
intensity/coverage as the air mass begins to destabilize and reach
convective temperatures. The region lies within the
warm/moisture/unstable air mass ahead of the remnants of Barry
(latest low center over north-central Ohio).

The environment is very tropical in nature with the 12Z soundings
from PBZ/ILN/IAD all showing deep saturation, tall/skinny CAPE
profiles, and PWs of 1.8 to near 2" which is roughly 2-3 SD above
the climatological mean for the area. Additionally warm cloud
depths are 4000 to near 4500 meters from the latest model
guidance. All of this points to very efficient rain producing
thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability per the latest RAP
mesoanalysis shows the best instability to be across central PA,
far southern NY and into eastern PA where 2000-2500+ J/kg of
SBCAPE exists.

With peak heating this afternoon, thunderstorm coverage is
expected to increase coincident with the better moisture/forcing
from the remnants of Barry. With the mean flow oriented from the
southwest to northeast, the best training potential looks to be
from northern/northeastern PA into far south-central NY. This
lines up well with the 12Z HREF probabilities, which show 40-45
percent chances this afternoon for hourly totals to reach/exceed
2". There is also a smaller signal (20-30 percent) for 3"/hr
totals along the NY/PA border this afternoon as well.

Through 23Z, totals of 2-4" will be possible with some locally
higher amounts possible. The lowest Flash Flood Guidance lies
across western PA, portions of the central Appalachians of MD/WV,
and then again across NY/PA border where 1-hr guidance is 1.5" or
less. With this in mind, some localized flash flooding will be
possible.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CLE...CTP...LWX...OKX...PBZ...
PHI...RLX...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...OHRFC...

LAT...LON   42887782 42657563 42367332 41517414 41337483
            40697623 39657768 38887872 38447959 38628047
            39768087 41468021


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