This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563383087-2024-126
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 171703
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 171703
MAZ000-NHZ000-RIZ000-CTZ000-NYZ000-VTZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-171930-

Mesoscale Discussion 1500
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1203 PM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 171703Z - 171930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase in the coming hours and
storms will move east-northeast across the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast along and east of the Appalachians. Damaging wind is the
main severe threat with these storms, and a severe thunderstorm
watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level shortwave trough is currently moving
over the Great Lakes and into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast per
satellite imagery. Forcing for ascent is spreading downstream of
this trough helping to initiate storms across the Appalachians.
Ahead of the cloud cover, surface temperatures have already warmed
into the 80s F with dewpoints mostly in the 70s resulting in MLCAPE
of 500-2000 J/kg. Storms will develop as areas reach their
convective temperatures and along a weak pre-frontal trough that is
focusing surface convergence south-southwest across the region with
building Cu already on visible satellite imagery.

Flow through the vertical layer is marginal, but effective bulk
shear of 25-35 knots is expected this afternoon/evening that will
result in isolated supercells. Overall, the storm mode will be mixed
given the strong upper-level forcing, forecast 2000-3000 J/kg of
MLCAPE, and marginal shear. Upscale growth is possible with these
storms and any QLCS or supercell could pose a damaging wind threat.

..Nauslar/Guyer.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

LAT...LON   42687573 43057309 43047296 42897151 42667109 42277091
            42007089 41697090 41447112 41157195 40677303 40327393
            39997485 39867653 39787722 39807785 40217840 40917876
            41497847 41747834 42237704 42687573



------------=_1563383087-2024-126
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563383087-2024-126--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)