This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563378787-2024-94
Content-Type: text/plain

AWUS01 KWNH 171553
FFGMPD
MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-172151-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0621
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1152 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Western/Upstate NY...Southern VT

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171551Z - 172151Z

Summary...Widespread steady moderate to locally heavy rainfall may
pose a flash flood risk into the afternoon across portions of
Upstate NY with hourly totals as high as 1.5" at times.

Discussion...A west/east oriented band of showers and
thunderstorms was located across portions of western/upstate NY
this morning, aided largely by the right entrance region of a 300
mb jet streak to the north. At the same time, an area of low
pressure was analyzed north of Lake Ontario, putting the outlook
area within a warm/moist/unstable environment with increasing
tropical moisture associated with the remnants of Barry. The
latest mesoanalysis showed around 1500 J/kg of SBCAPE with the
latest blended TPW showing values of 1.8 to 2.0", which is roughly
2-3 SD above the climatological mean.

Recent radar imagery from KTYX showed radar rate estimates of 1 to
2 inches per hour with a narrow stripe of convection along/north
of I-90 with several mesonet observations of 1 to 1.3" in the last
hour.

The expectation for the next 6 hours is that individual
cells/clusters will move eastward but with the mean flow nearly
parallel to the storm motions, some backbuilding/training is
likely to develop. The hi-res model consensus suggests areal
amounts of 2-3" with some locally higher amounts near 4" possible
through 22Z. Overall, much of the area has been drier than normal
in the last 7-14 days (except for areas just north/northeast of
SYR) so the latest FFG isn't exceptionally low and this reduces
the flash flood risk some. With that said, the hourly rates may
exceed the 1-hr guidance in localized places and this could lead
to some instances of flash flooding into the afternoon hours.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BOX...BTV...BUF...

ATTN...RFC...MARFC...NERFC...

LAT...LON   44227620 44027395 43707257 42897262 42527338
            42567383 42687500 42757563 42867659 43097827
            43517747 43537661


------------=_1563378787-2024-94
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563378787-2024-94--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)