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AWUS01 KWNH 171351
FFGMPD
TNZ000-ALZ000-MSZ000-ARZ000-171730-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0620
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
951 AM EDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...Northern Alabama, Northern Mississippi, Western
Tennessee

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 171332Z - 171730Z

Summary...Localized flash flooding will be possible this morning,
particularly in northern Alabama with some persistent
thunderstorms. Additional thunderstorm development is possible
into the midday hours and early afternoon over southwest Tennessee
and northern Mississippi.

Discussion...Thunderstorms have persisted over northwest
Mississippi this morning, with a relatively favorable
configuration for backbuilding. Weak mid-upper level winds were
leading to deep layer mean winds of only around 15 knots, while
low-level inflow at 850mb was stronger around 25 knots. This was
leading to an easterly component to the Corfidi vectors, with
magnitudes around 5-10 knots. That is a setup that favors slow
backbuilding and persistence of thunderstorms, especially when the
instability axis is positioned upstream. In this case, MUCAPE
values were around 2000 j/kg in N MS. An MCV was noted in KHTX
radar velocity data over SC TN, and thunderstorms were generally
anchored along a trailing convergence band. Although this will
steadily move to the east this morning, thunderstorms may continue
to regenerate upstream given the mesoscale environment. PW values
in excess of 2 inches will support significant rain rates of 2+
inches per hour, and this may lead to localized flash flooding
where backbuilding can occur. Hi-res models have a signal for
additional convective development in W TN and N MS by the early
afternoon, and this could link up with ongoing activity to produce
additional training and flash flood potential further to the west.

Lamers

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN...JAN...MEG...OHX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON   35918943 35478850 35088778 34918716 34828640
            34618609 33918633 33558792 33988921 34959024
            35658998


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