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ACUS01 KWNS 171240
SWODY1
SPC AC 171238

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 171300Z - 181200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND THE NORTHEAST
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and large hail are
possible across portions of the northern High Plains and
mid-to-upper Mississippi Valley through tonight. Storms capable of
damaging wind gusts will be possible across portions of the
Northeast this afternoon and evening.

...IA this morning...
A mature bow echo is currently affecting northwest IA, and should
maintain significant intensity for a few more hours, posing a risk
of damaging wind across parts of IA.  Please see WW514 for further
information.

...Upper MS Valley this afternoon...
A large cloud shield is associated with the IA convection.  This
will limit daytime heating and destabilization over much of
southern/central MN today. Therefore have trimmed the SLGT risk in
parts of this area.  Redevelopment of strong/severe storms remains
possible this afternoon in vicinity of the outflow associated with
this morning's storms.  However, that may be shunted southward into
IA and adjacent parts of WI/IL/MO.

...Northern High Plains...
Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over eastern ID.  This
feature will move into MT/WY this afternoon, helping to develop
scattered thunderstorms.  A few severe storms capable of hail and
damaging winds will affect parts of the western Dakotas, where the
SLGT risk area was expanded slightly in this update.

...Northern MN...
A shortwave trough is noted over eastern MT.  This feature and its
associated large scale forcing will overspread northern MN later
today - with scattered thunderstorms expected.  The effects of the
ongoing convection farther south remains unclear, but it appears
possible that clearing will move into this region by peak-heating,
allowing pockets of moderate CAPE to develop.  Hail and damaging
winds would be possible in the strongest cells over this area.

...NY/PA/NJ into southern New England...
A moist and potentially very unstable air mass is in place across
this region today, with dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
early visible satellite imagery is showing the potential for strong
heating.  Afternoon SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg are expected,
with scattered thunderstorms forming by mid-afternoon.  Vertical
shear profiles will not be particularly strong, but sufficient
westerly steering flow will help organize outflows and pose a risk
of locally damaging wind gusts in the strongest cells.  Coverage and
intensity of storms will decrease farther south across the Delmarva
region, but isolated strong convection will be possible.

..Hart/Smith.. 07/17/2019

$$


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