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ACUS11 KWNS 170914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 170914
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-171045-

Mesoscale Discussion 1498
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0414 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Areas affected...southeast SD...northeast NE...northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 170914Z - 171045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...The risk for severe gusts may increase as the bowing
cluster continues to organize.  Convective trends will be closely
monitored for a possible severe thunderstorm watch.

DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic has shown the transition from a cluster of
thunderstorms over south-central SD to a bowing segment with an
associated warm advection wing to its east.  Large convective cores
have been noted with echo tops around 55kft and this evolution is
favorable for a balancing of the cold pool with ongoing updraft
development.  The area over southeast SD into northwest IA is
characterized as moderately buoyant and located in the vicinity of a
35kt LLJ terminus.  The LLJ is forecast to continue to veer during
the early morning and gradually weaken.  However, diurnal heating
will act to destabilize the airmass over IA this morning and may
contribute to this squall line maintaining organization and
intensity into the morning.  Nonetheless, there is uncertainty
regarding the details of whether the squall line can breach a
critical threshold for becoming an organized/severe-gust producer
during the morning.

..Smith.. 07/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

LAT...LON   44139884 43719586 42819475 42289480 41989557 42169702
            42889995 44139884



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