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ACUS48 KWNS 170735
SWOD48
SPC AC 170734

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest large-scale ridging will dominate the
CONUS until this weekend when a significant short-wave trough may
dig southeast across the northern Plains/Upper MS Valley region. If
models are correct and the ridge builds over the Rockies, a
substantial cold front should be shunted across the Plains-Mid MS/OH
Valley which would likely serve as the focus for convection.
Northwest deep-layer flow along the eastern plume of steeper lapse
rates would seem supportive of robust convection. However, too much
uncertainty currently exists to introduce 15%.

..Darrow.. 07/17/2019


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