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ACUS03 KWNS 170647
SWODY3
SPC AC 170646

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 AM CDT Wed Jul 17 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES...

...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may develop across the upper Midwest into the
upper Great Lakes.

...Upper Midwest/Great Lakes...

Large-scale pattern will become increasingly hostile towards
organized deep convection later this week as upper ridging will
dominate much of the CONUS from the southwestern desert region into
the Middle Atlantic. Near the international border, strong
west-southwesterly flow will extend across MT into northern MN.
Within this flow a notable short-wave trough will eject into ON
which will allow a surface front to settle into WI by mid afternoon.
With neutral-weak height rises expected along the boundary south of
Lake Superior, it's not entirely clear how robust convection will be
along the wind shift. Latest model guidance does not warm surface
readings enough for parcels to reach their convective temperatures
and large-scale forcing for ascent is expected to be negligible.
However, a reservoir of significant instability will extend across
the warm sector such that if storms develop there may be some severe
threat. NAM allows convection to develop by early evening then drift
south across WI. Will introduce 5% severe probs to account for this
possibility.

..Darrow.. 07/17/2019

$$


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