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AWUS01 KWNH 152132
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-160326-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0611
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
532 PM EDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...South-Central Louisiana

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 152126Z - 160326Z

Summary...Showers and thunderstorms are beginning to organize into
another line across portions of southeast Texas into south-central
Louisiana. Rain rates 2-3"/hr will be possible and this rainfall
over very saturated soils could lead to more flash flooding.

Discussion...Radar imagery from KPOE, KLCH showed clusters of
thunderstorms beginning to congeal into a southwest to northeast
oriented line from portions of southeast Texas into south-central
Louisiana. After morning convection waned, instability has
remained more than sufficient with the most recent mesoanalysis
showing 2500-3500 J/kg of SBCAPE in the region. Deep tropical
moisture associated with Barry continues to be focused into the
area along convergent surface boundaries within relatively weak
steering flow.

Over the next 6 hours, the latest hi-res guidance suggests a
northward push of the best boundary layer moisture convergence as
Barry moves northward. This would act to pull any remaining bands
northward as well, but could stubbornly hang on across portions of
south-central Louisiana. The latest runs of the HRRR have
performed well with this activity and suggests a stripe of 2-3" is
likely with some localized higher amounts 3-4" possible through
03Z.

This additional rainfall is likely to fall on or very near the
heavy rainfall footprint from the past 24-36 hours, where 10-15
with locally 20" fell. As such, the flash flood guidance is
extremely low in this area and the additional rainfall could
worsen ongoing flooding or initiate new flooding concerns.

Taylor

...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   32199180 32039077 30809105 30229203 29779296
            29829349 29689415 29899430 30339439 31189378
            31519330


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