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ACUS11 KWNS 152021
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152020
NEZ000-SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-152245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1480
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming...southwest South
Dakota...western Nebraska

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 152020Z - 152245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Storm coverage will increase this afternoon/evening across
portions of the central/northern High Plains. Severe hail and wind
are the main threats, and a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is
likely.

DISCUSSION...An upper-level disturbance is moving over western South
Dakota and northwest Nebraska while another disturbance is moving
over western Wyoming. These disturbances are helping to provide
forcing for ascent and aiding convective initiation along with
insolation, terrain, and surface boundaries. The best buoyancy is
located across western Nebraska and south/east of the Black Hills in
South Dakota where surface dewpoints are in the 50s to upper 60s F
and temperatures in the 80s to low 90s F. Storms will move eastward
off the higher terrain in Wyoming and onto the High Plains this
afternoon/evening. Additional development is also possible along the
cold front in South Dakota and along surface convergence ahead of
this (possibly a pre-frontal trough).

Supercells are possible, at least initially, given the 40-50 knots
of effective bulk shear across the area, but upscale growth and a
mixed storm mode are likely this evening with the upper-level
forcing. Storms will likely intensify with time as they move into
better instability. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the main
threats and a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is likely for a
large portion of the MCD.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   41730110 41040225 41040328 41250421 41610519 42300602
            42940648 43480655 45050560 45510536 45620464 45430389
            44300234 43570164 43320087 42940012 42739983 42549975
            42270001 42060043 41730110



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