This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563221610-51656-11345
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS11 KWNS 152013
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 152012
MNZ000-IAZ000-SDZ000-NEZ000-152145-

Mesoscale Discussion 1479
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0312 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...portions of southeast SD into southwest MN and far
northwest IA

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 152012Z - 152145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...A couple of strong cells could produce locally strong wind
gusts and possibly hail through this evening. Overall threat will
remain isolated and a watch is not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION...A CU field continues to develop in a strongly unstable
environment just ahead of the surface cold front from south-central
SD into southwest MN, with a few TCU noted in visible imagery.
Forcing for ascent associated with the shortwave impulse moving into
northern MN becomes weaker with southward extent, but isolated cells
are possible in a mostly uncapped environment. Effective shear is
weak, on the order of 20-30 kt, which may limit storm organization
in the absence of stronger forcing. Nevertheless, MLCAPE greater
than 2500 J/kg and midlevel lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km could
support briefly intense cells. Likewise, very weak low level winds
and steep low level lapse rates could promote strong downburst winds
in strongest cells. Overall, the threat is expected to remain
isolated and it does not appear a watch is needed at this time.

..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

LAT...LON   44029934 44509836 45359646 45479558 45279472 44889436
            44409424 44059422 43569459 43149558 42909673 42839822
            43069921 43599938 44029934



------------=_1563221610-51656-11345
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563221610-51656-11345--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)