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ACUS11 KWNS 151936
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151936
MTZ000-WYZ000-IDZ000-152200-

Mesoscale Discussion 1478
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...southern Montana and northern Wyoming

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 151936Z - 152200Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Storms will move off the higher terrain and spread
eastward this afternoon and evening across southern Montana and
northern Wyoming. Large hail and damaging winds may occur with these
storms and a severe thunderstorm watch issuance is possible.

DISCUSSION...Per satellite imagery and mesoanalysis it appears a
couple of weak mid-level disturbances are moving over central
Idaho/far western Montana and western Wyoming. Forcing for ascent
associated with these disturbances and deep terrain-thermal
circulations are helping to initiate storms over the higher terrain.
Temperatures are warming into the upper 70 to mid 80s F, but surface
moisture remains rather pedestrian west of the Big Horns (mostly
45-50 F). As a result, marginal buoyancy exists across the area,
although some steeper mid-level lapse rates (7.5+ C/km) and stronger
effective bulk shear (35-45 knots) should help compensate somewhat.

A mixed storm mode is expected with isolated-scattered supercells
before likely building upscale into loose cluster(s) this afternoon
and evening. Severe hail may occur given the shear, mid-level lapse
rates, and CAPE in the hail growth region while severe wind may also
occur with relatively high LCLs.

..Nauslar/Dial.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...RIW...TFX...PIH...

LAT...LON   43090733 42940789 42870831 42920880 43260902 43730930
            44260977 44591138 44801211 45341228 45701223 46171177
            46471110 46551100 46540811 46110698 45280591 44570578
            43840623 43650643 43340688 43090733



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