Message Area
Casually read the BBS message area using an easy to use interface. Messages are categorized exactly like they are on the BBS. You may post new messages or reply to existing messages! You are not logged in. Login here for full access privileges. |
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to National Weather Network <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
|
||||||
From | To | Subject | Date/Time | |||
COD Weather Processor | wx-storm | DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook |
July 15, 2019 7:26 PM * |
|||
This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1563218819-51656-11326 Content-Type: text/plain ACUS01 KWNS 151926 SWODY1 SPC AC 151925 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon into this evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and also the northern and central High Plains. A marginal tornado and damaging wind threat will persist with the remnants of Barry across the lower and mid Mississippi Valley. No changes were made to the previous outlook except to tighten severe probabilities behind the line of storms over northern MN. Storm coverage will continue to increase across MN and WI, with wind and hail expected. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1477. ..Jewell.. 07/15/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/ ...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region... As of late morning a cold front extends from extreme northwest MN through southwest SD and into WY. A moist pre-frontal warm sector is in place across MN through WI beneath the eastern extension of an elevated mixed layer with 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Storms are presently ongoing over northwest MN in vicinity of the front within a weak warm advection regime and in association with a low-amplitude shortwave trough. This activity is currently elevated, but could pose some risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds through mid day (see swomcd 1475). As the downstream boundary layer destabilizes due to strong diabatic warming, MLCAPE should increase to 2500-3000 J/kg across MN into WI, but with rather modest (25-35 kt) effective bulk shear. Storms should increase in coverage and intensity along and ahead of the front across MN this afternoon into the evening, posing a risk for isolated damaging wind and hail. Other strong to severe multicell storms might evolve over WI in association with arrival of a progressive MCV that is currently located over southern MN. ...Northern through central High Plains... Low-level winds are expected to gradually veer to northeasterly in the post frontal regime across the northern High Plains region with dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F over southern MT/northern WY to near 60 F farther east across western SD and NE. Diabatic heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500 J/kg in this region beneath belt of modest westerlies, resulting in 35-40 kt effective bulk shear. A plume of subtropical moisture and a shortwave trough moving toward the northern Rockies will aid thunderstorm initiation later this afternoon. Other storms will also likely develop within weak upslope regime over the mountains of WY and spread eastward into western SD and NE. Initial discrete storms may eventually evolve into clusters with both supercells and multicell modes capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts into the evening. ...Lower Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys... The center of low pressure associated with the remnants of Barry is currently over AR and will move slowly north today. VWP data still show large hodographs with 0-1 km storm relative helicity from 300-400 m2/s2 along low-level jet east and north of the center. However, primary limiting factor is expected to remain widespread clouds and moist adiabatic lapse rates which will limit instability and updraft strength. Nevertheless, a few breaks in the clouds are evident across southeast AR spreading northward, and additional cloud breaks might occur farther east. A few low-topped showers and storms are expected this afternoon, and at least a couple of tornadoes remain possible given the favorable low-level kinematic environment. Will maintain MRGL risk category given the thermodynamic limitations, but trends will continue to be monitored for a SLGT risk should it begin to appear that more destabilization will occur than currently anticipated. $$ ------------=_1563218819-51656-11326 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1563218819-51656-11326-- --- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) |
||||||
|
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to National Weather Network <-- <--- | Return to Home Page |
Execution Time: 0.0935 seconds If you experience any problems with this website or need help, contact the webmaster. VADV-PHP Copyright © 2002-2024 Steve Winn, Aspect Technologies. All Rights Reserved. Virtual Advanced Copyright © 1995-1997 Roland De Graaf. |