Message Area
Casually read the BBS message area using an easy to use interface. Messages are categorized exactly like they are on the BBS. You may post new messages or reply to existing messages!

You are not logged in. Login here for full access privileges.

Previous Message | Next Message | Back to National Weather Network  <--  <--- Return to Home Page
   Networked Database  National Weather Network   [238 / 900] RSS
 From   To   Subject   Date/Time 
Message   COD Weather Processor    wx-storm   DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook   July 15, 2019
 7:26 PM *  

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1563218819-51656-11326
Content-Type: text/plain

ACUS01 KWNS 151926
SWODY1
SPC AC 151925

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Valid 152000Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large hail, damaging wind, and
perhaps a tornado or two will be possible this afternoon into this
evening across portions of the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and
also the northern and central High Plains. A marginal tornado and
damaging wind threat will persist with the remnants of Barry across
the lower and mid Mississippi Valley.

No changes were made to the previous outlook except to tighten
severe probabilities behind the line of storms over northern MN.
Storm coverage will continue to increase across MN and WI, with wind
and hail expected. For more information see mesoscale discussion
1477.

..Jewell.. 07/15/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019/

...Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region...

As of late morning a cold front extends from extreme northwest MN
through southwest SD and into WY. A moist pre-frontal warm sector is
in place across MN through WI beneath the eastern extension of an
elevated mixed layer with 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates. Storms
are presently ongoing over northwest MN in vicinity of the front
within a weak warm advection regime and in association with a
low-amplitude shortwave trough. This activity is currently elevated,
but could pose some risk for marginally severe hail and gusty winds
through mid day (see swomcd 1475). As the downstream boundary layer
destabilizes due to strong diabatic warming, MLCAPE should increase
to 2500-3000 J/kg across MN into WI, but with rather modest (25-35
kt) effective bulk shear. Storms should increase in coverage and
intensity along and ahead of the front across MN this afternoon into
the evening, posing a risk for isolated damaging wind and hail.
Other strong to severe multicell storms might evolve over WI in
association with arrival of a progressive MCV that is currently
located over southern MN.

...Northern through central High Plains...

Low-level winds are expected to gradually veer to northeasterly in
the post frontal regime across the northern High Plains region with
dewpoints in the upper 40s to low 50s F over southern MT/northern WY
to near 60 F farther east across western SD and NE. Diabatic heating
and steep mid-level lapse rates will support MLCAPE from 1500-2500
J/kg in this region beneath belt of modest westerlies, resulting in
35-40 kt effective bulk shear. A plume of subtropical moisture and a
shortwave trough moving toward the northern Rockies will aid
thunderstorm initiation later this afternoon. Other storms will also
likely develop within weak upslope regime over the mountains of WY
and spread eastward into western SD and NE. Initial discrete storms
may eventually evolve into clusters with both supercells and
multicell modes capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts into
the evening.

...Lower Mississippi through lower Ohio Valleys...

The center of low pressure associated with the remnants of Barry is
currently over AR and will move slowly north today. VWP data still
show large hodographs with 0-1 km storm relative helicity from
300-400 m2/s2 along low-level jet east and north of the center.
However, primary limiting factor is expected to remain widespread
clouds and moist adiabatic lapse rates which will limit instability
and updraft strength. Nevertheless, a few breaks in the clouds are
evident across southeast AR spreading northward, and additional
cloud breaks might occur farther east. A few low-topped showers and
storms are expected this afternoon, and at least a couple of
tornadoes remain possible given the favorable low-level kinematic
environment. Will maintain MRGL risk category given the
thermodynamic limitations, but trends will continue to be monitored
for a SLGT risk should it begin to appear that more destabilization
will occur than currently anticipated.

$$


------------=_1563218819-51656-11326
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.
------------=_1563218819-51656-11326--

--- SBBSecho 3.07-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)
  Show ANSI Codes | Hide BBCodes | Show Color Codes | Hide Encoding | Hide HTML Tags | Show Routing
Previous Message | Next Message | Back to National Weather Network  <--  <--- Return to Home Page

VADV-PHP
Execution Time: 0.0935 seconds

If you experience any problems with this website or need help, contact the webmaster.
VADV-PHP Copyright © 2002-2024 Steve Winn, Aspect Technologies. All Rights Reserved.
Virtual Advanced Copyright © 1995-1997 Roland De Graaf.
v2.0.140505

Warning: Unknown: open(c:\Sessions\sess_jccvc8rrv7l40r7htkmabk9070, O_RDWR) failed: No such file or directory (2) in Unknown on line 0 Warning: Unknown: Failed to write session data (files). Please verify that the current setting of session.save_path is correct (c:\Sessions) in Unknown on line 0 PHP Warning: session_start(): open(c:\Sessions\sess_jccvc8rrv7l40r7htkmabk9070, O_RDWR) failed: No such file or directory (2) in D:\wc5\http\public\VADV\include\common.inc.php on line 45 PHP Warning: Unknown: open(c:\Sessions\sess_jccvc8rrv7l40r7htkmabk9070, O_RDWR) failed: No such file or directory (2) in Unknown on line 0 PHP Warning: Unknown: Failed to write session data (files). Please verify that the current setting of session.save_path is correct (c:\Sessions) in Unknown on line 0