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ACUS11 KWNS 151858
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151857
WIZ000-MNZ000-152030-

Mesoscale Discussion 1477
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019

Areas affected...southeast MN into central WI

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 151857Z - 152030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated strong storms could produce hail and locally
strong wind gusts.

DISCUSSION...Isolated thunderstorms are developing across
west-central WI this afternoon in an area of strong instability
downstream from an MCV currently over southeast MN. These storms may
pose a marginal risk for hail approaching 1-inch in diameter and
locally strong wind gusts. However, weak effective shear will limit
overall organization of any storm clusters that develop.
Additionally, an area of low to midlevel dry air has been noted on
water vapor imagery to the north of the MCV and south of the
southeastward-advancing cold front. This is further evident in
visible satellite imagery, where little cloud cover is present from
near AQP in southwest MN eastward to near RZN in western WI. This
may be suppressing convective potential across central/southern MN
and adjacent parts of WI in the short term, until stronger ascent
arrives with the approach of the cold front and shortwave impulse.
Hi-res guidance continues to struggle with ongoing convection,
providing little confidence in overall evolution of potential severe
threat across parts of southern MN into central WI through the
afternoon. As such, trends will be monitored for possible watch
issuance, but a watch does not appear necessary in the short-term.

..Leitman/Dial.. 07/15/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   45359223 45629147 45749032 45408976 45068959 44678968
            44219074 43739229 43619304 43889343 44419334 45039277
            45359223



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