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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   Ranking the Last Decade of NHL Draft Results   September 18, 2018
 2:52 PM *  

What follows is a team-by-team analysis of the last 10 years of the NHL draft -
 2008 until 2017, inclusive - with regards to the success of said teams' draft
picks at the NHL level.Methodology for Judging NHL Draft Success

This article revolves around the definitely-scientific-and-not-at-all arbitrary
 Drafting Score measure, which I definitely didn't think of just now. It's not
a perfect metric, but it's a quick and dirty way to assess a team's prospecting
 prowess.

Having only been through one draft, the Vegas Golden Knights are exempt from
this ranking. For everyone else, I took four categories - all traditional
statistics, and weighted them according to their (roughly) relative importance.

The four measures were GP (games played; the cumulative number of NHL games a
team's draft picks have played), 100+ GP (the number of draftees for a given
team that have played 100 or more NHL games), G (goals; the cumulative number
of NHL goals a team's draft picks have scored) and PTS (points; the cumulative
number of NHL points a team's draft picks have amassed).

Each team was ranked inversely from 1-30, with the best-drafting team in each
category receiving 30 points.The late Bryan Murray helmed the Ottawa Senators
from 2007 until 2016, amassing an unparalleled draft record along the way.
(Photo courtesy Wikimedia Commons)

For the sake of goaltenders, most defensemen and non-offensive forwards, the
two games-played measures received a weighting of 1.0, while points were
weighted at 0.5 and goals at 0.25.

Why even include goaltenders at all, given they're not really factors in two of
 the categories? Well, over the span of a decade, one would expect a roughly
equivalent number of goaltenders to be drafted by each team, so their dearths
in goals and points should even out, while the illuminating games-played
numbers would speak for themselves. Simply put, I felt the inclusion of
goaltenders would enrich the exercise.

Anyway, at the end of it all, all the rankings were added up to create a
drafting score, a metric which showed incredible variation across the
league.Ranking NHL Teams' Draft SuccessBow Down Before NHL Draft Dominance(The
Hockey Writers)

Likewise, perhaps no two teams underscore the importance of things other than
drafting than the Senators and Islanders. Both teams have exceptional records
when it comes to who they've drafted over the past decade, and yet both have
been perennially mediocre at best - hit or miss to get into the playoffs, and
bottom-feeding bad at worst. It's a shame both of these franchises are
consistently gong shows, as they've really wasted some fine work by their draft
 teams.Perhaps no two teams underscore the importance of good drafting like the
 Ducks and Lightning. In recent years, both teams have been beset by an
unfathomable amount of injuries to critical players. And yet, every single
season, both keep clawing their way into contention, filling every hole created
 by injury with impact players seemingly manufactured out of thin air, like
something out of Call of Duty's Zombies mode. Good drafting and development
can make up for much of the unpredictability of the NHL.Not Your First Rodeo,
Eh?(The Hockey Writers)

You've got teams that are perennially competitive thanks to their draft
excellence, able sustain their on-ice performance by eschewing players when
they become too expensive, knowing they've got the ability to replace them from
 within (Predators, Blackhawks, Capitals).Despite sustained draft success in
this bunch, the on-ice products have proven a real mixed bag.David Poile of the
 Nashville Predators is the NHL';s longest-tenured general manager, having
started in the role Jul. 9, 1997. (Photo by Shelley Lipton / Icon Sportswire
via Getty Images)

You've got teams that, at some point over the course of the past decade, have
had to rebuild, and have methodically amassed a well-stocked stable of talent
that is a piece or two away from challenging for the Stanley Cup (Jets,
Hurricanes).

And then you've got teams who've hit on plenty of talent at the draft, but have
 proved utterly incapable of surrounding them with complementary players and
competent staff, resulting in a decade of (mostly) futility (Oilers, Panthers,
Sabres).Crushing Draft Mediocrity Fuels NHL Playoff Bubble(The Hockey Writers)

Yes, the Blues were great for a long time - and have the potential to bounce
right back after a transition year in 2017-18, but did anyone really take them
 seriously as Cup contenders? And yes, the Rangers had a couple deep runs,
including an appearance in the Cup Final in 2014, but their success had more to
 do with Henrik Lundqvist dragging their sorry asses to respectability every
season than anything else.Much of this section is comprised of the teams you'd
expect to be here. Teams that, for the last decade, have been hovering around
the playoff bubble, generally never bad enough to raise eyebrows (except for
the Coyotes) but generally never good enough to be a Stanley Cup contender,
either.Don't Sell the Bike Shop, Orville(The Hockey Writers)

Now firmly in the draftually inept section of the rankings, we see an
assortment of teams that, for whatever reason, just haven't been able to figure
 things out.Doug Wilson has been the GM of the San Jose Sharks since 2003. His
draft record leaves much to be desired, but it';s hard to argue with the
Sharks'; consistent competitiveness. (The Hockey Writers)

The Bruins have figured out quality, but haven't been able to muster much
quantity. The Penguins have had a reasonable number of guys make the show for
100 or more games, but not many with substantial results to speak of.

The Sharks, Maple Leafs and Flyers have just plain seen their prospect
pipelines run dry for much the past decade (though the Maple Leafs in
particular have been much better of late).

It would be more than reasonable for these fan bases to be up in arms.
Fortunately for the teams involved, there are some who are even worse.You
Do Know There's a Draft, Right?(The Hockey Writers)

Yes, the Canucks were a top contender for a number of years this past decade
but so were the Kings and Blackhawks, and they've both done reasonably well,
draft-wise. Besides, Vancouver's had a first-round pick in each of the past 10
years, save for 2010 when they didn't pick until the Fourth Round.Seriously,
what have the Canucks and Habs been doing every June?

As for the Canadiens, they've graduated a league-low six prospects to 100 or
more NHL games since 2008, and only two from the First Round - Nathan Beaulieu
(2011; no longer with the organisation) and Alex Galchenyuk (2012; no longer
with the organisation).

Hilariously, the next closest to 100 games from the Habs' draft history is
Mikhail Sergachev (2016; no longer with the organisation).Marc Bergevin has not
 only underperformed at the draft since he became Montréal Canadiens GM in
2012, but he';s traded away many of the organisation';s best picks of the last
decade, as well. (Lisa Gansky Photography)

Given what we know about the philosophy of both teams, my only guess is that
both organisations entirely pooh-pooh the draft combine in favour of judging
players purely on their ability to make a specified amount of jam while
operating a gritting machine.(More) History Will Be Made

Certainly, many teams have not had the same regime running the show for the
past 10 years. Plus, on-ice success can lead to lower draft positioning,
theoretically - particularly in early rounds - making it less likely to find
NHL-calibre players. And yes, regardless of personnel and positioning, drafting
 is a decidedly inexact science, to say nothing of the development of said
draft picks.

However, it's still interesting to look at organisational draft histories, and
to speculate on what exactly might be fuelling a team's success, failure or
abject mediocrity. Is it a matter of scouting? An organisational philosophy? A
decade's worth of good fortune (or lack thereof)?

In any event, no team can change the past.

Starting Jun. 22 though, they'll have their once-per-year chance to improve the
 future. (originally written in June 2018)

The post Ranking the Last Decade of NHL Draft Results appeared first on The
Hockey Writers.

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