The transactions made by the Ottawa Senators during the offseason were both
controversial and harmful to the team. Trading Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman
for far less than their value have damaged the team's identity and talent pool.
 But the most damage was arguably done to Guy Boucher's long-term future as
head coach of the Senators.

Boucher is entering his third season behind the bench in Ottawa and cracks have
 already begun to show after last year's disastrous campaign. The '1-3-1';, or
neutral zone trap, Boucher is so fond of seemed to fall apart as the Senators
finished 30th in goals allowed and Ottawa went from making the Eastern
Conference Final the year prior to picking fourth overall in the 2018 NHL Entry
 Draft.

You could attribute this fall to bad goaltending, a lack of elite players
outside of Erik Karlsson, or management not giving Boucher resources to help
the team, but it all falls on his shoulders in the end. Now, with Karlsson
gone and the Senators looking like they will finish in the bottom five of the
league for the second straight year, Boucher could be running out of time in
Ottawa.Guy Boucher's third season in Ottawa is shaping up to be a rough ride.
(James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)

But what's interesting is if you look at Boucher's time as head coach of the
Tampa Bay Lightning, you would see many similarities that have followed him to
Canada's capital. Unfortunately, not all of those similarities are
positive.2010-11: Boucher Hired By Lightning, Finds Success

Boucher was named head coach of the Tampa Bay Lightning for the 2010-11 season.
 That Lightning team finished seventh in goals scored in the NHL, offsetting
their defensive performance (24th in goals allowed). Martin St. Louis and
Steven Stamkos both recorded 90-plus point seasons, propelling the team to a
second-place finish in the Southeast Division and a playoff spot. The Lightning
 made it to the Eastern Conference Final against the Boston Bruins. The series
went all the way to a seventh game, where the Lighting finished one goal away
from the Stanley Cup Final in a 1-0 loss. The Bruins would go on to win the
Stanley Cup in seven games against the Vancouver Canucks.Guy Boucher's career
with the Ottawa Senators has many similarities to his first time as head coach
of the Tampa Bay Lightning. (IconSMISelect)

Boucher's defensive scheme seemed to be effective at preventing shots, as the
Lightning finished third in the league in shots allowed (2,106). The team also
had a surplus of gritty, physical players like Nate Thompson, Ryan Malone and
Sean Bergenheim. His tactics prevented shots and helped create offensive
chances that more than made up for the goals opposing teams scored.

A team with strong defensive capabilities and a gritty nature making it all the
 way to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final only to finish one goal away
from playing for the Stanley Cup?

That sounds awfully similar to the 2016-17 Ottawa Senators. Boucher's first
season with Ottawa had Erik Karlsson and Mike Hoffman leading the way with
Craig Andersen in net as the Senators finished 11th in goals allowed. Players
like Mark Borowiecki (364 hits, 201 blocked shots) and Tom Pyatt (89 blocked
shots) brought a physicality to the lineup and the Senators finished second in
the Atlantic Division and made the playoffs, only to lose in double overtime to
 the Pittsburgh Penguins in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Final, one goal
away from the final.2011-12: A Steep Fall

After exceeding expectations the season before, Boucher and the Lightning
experienced a sharp decline during the 2011-12 season. The team went 38-36-8,
missing the playoffs. The culprit of this decline? The team's defensive
performance. The Lightning allowed the most goals in the NHL (281 goals, 3.42
goals per game) and the defense that worked so well preventing shots went from
third in the league to 16th along with a team save percentage of .887%. The
Lightning placed 25th on the power play (15.24%) and 26th on the penalty kill
(79.23%), a massive drop from 2010-11, when the team finished sixth and eighth
in those categories, respectively. They also couldn't get shots to the net,
falling from seventh to 28th in the NHL (27.2 shots per game).An example of
1-2-2 formation changing into the 1-3-1, a favorite formation of Guy Boucher.

Last year the Senators not only missed the playoffs but finished 30th in the
NHL in goals allowed. They went from 17th in the league in shots allowed to
24th, and both their penalty kill and power play finished towards the bottom of
 the league (26th and 27th in the league, respectively). In both of Boucher's
sophomore seasons, his schemes were snuffed out by opponents and it hurt his
teams, especially on the defensive front.2012-13: Boucher is Fired

The Lightning brought back Boucher for the 2012-13 lockout-shortened season.
After a 6-1-0 start, the Lightning would lose 12 of their next 15 games and
falter to a 13-17-1 record, resulting in Boucher's termination. The team's
defense under Boucher continued to meander. In his 31 games as coach that
season, the Lightning allowed 95 goals, or 3.06 goals per game. The team tried
to score their way out of the issue, but 101 goals (3.25 goals per game) were
not enough. At season's end, the Lightning went 18-26-4 and finished 26th in
shots allowed (1,451), 24th in shots for (1,323) and tied for 24th in save
percentage (.899%).Guy Boucher (Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports)

After his firing, Boucher was hired as head coach of SC Bern in Switzerland's
National League. He coached there from 2013 to 2015, being fired by the team in
 November 2015. He would be hired by the Senators for the same position in May
2018 after the Senators fired Dave Cameron in April.Will History Repeat Itself?

The similarities between Guy Boucher's time with the Tampa Bay Lightning and
his time with the Ottawa Senators is not a coincidence. Every coach has his
tactics and team structure, and while Boucher's approach may work during the
first year, it appears that opposing teams adapt well and Boucher';s own teams
suffer offensively and defensively because of it.

Boucher';s third year in Ottawa does come with some asterisks. Pierre Dorion
and Eugene Melnyk are embracing the rebuild and much of the talent besides a
few key players are unproven, still developing, or just depth pieces to fill
roster spots. Management could end up cutting him a break even if the team
flatlines again. If he is a good presence and helps the younger talent develop
properly, Boucher could make it through the season. But with that way
management has been acting recently, it could go either way.

The post Boucher's Tenure with Senators Is Eerily Familiar appeared first on
The Hockey Writers.

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