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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   Oilers With the Most to Prove: Lucic, Rattie   September 17, 2018
 9:45 AM *  

As the pre-season gets underway, there';s one player in the Edmonton Oilers
dressing room that is embracing a 'clean slate'; in 2018-19. Milan Lucic';s
2017-18 season has been well documented within the Northern Alberta market. He
managed just ten goals and 34 points in a tumultuous 82 games and had brief
stints on the third and fourth lines on some nights.

It wasn';t ideal considering he was in year two of that seven-year, $42
million contract he signed as an unrestricted free agent (UFA) back in July
2016. Now entering year three, it';s a pivotal season for Lucic and the club.
Falter again, and he could find himself genuinely being shopped by the guy that
 ironically drafted him back in 2006 as the general manager of the Boston
Bruins.Milan Lucic (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

The internal hope, at least from the fan base, is that last year was a blip on
 the radar and not indicative of the eventual decline expected of the power
forward. Remember, he was pegged to be the left wing option with Connor McDavid
 for a number of years at the time of his signing. Through all the media rounds
 the club was making, it sounded like a great fit.Related: Milan Lucic Trade
Talk

However, it was dollars and term that gave cause for concern initially. Now
it';s dollars, term, and a potential decline in production while still being in
 the first half of an expensive contract that';s an albatross to move. In turn,
 Lucic saw his ice-time drop from his first season (17:09) to his second
(15:58). A large part of that was his horrifying second-half slump where he
scored just one goal in 43 games.The Oiler with the Most to Prove: Milan Lucic

What followed throughout the summer were rumors that Lucic had asked for a
trade, or that the club was close to dealing him. All that trade talk peaked
during draft weekend, where a day before the first pick was made, rumors were
rampant that Edmonton was nearing a deal for Lucic. When the smoke settled,
Lucic was still a member of the Oilers and will be here in October.Related: Why
 Trading Milan Lucic is Unlikely

The hope now is that the embattled forward can once again return to being a
20-goal scorer, and a physical presence on the ice. It would help the club
avoid missing the playoffs for the 12th time in 13 years. If he can';t have
even a modest return to form, this signing will be seen as an absolute failure
within the market and across the NHL.

Trading him will be even harder than it already is with 1) clear evidence that
"the decline" has inevitably hit Lucic hard, and 2) the remaining dollars and
term left on the deal. If the asset isn';t already seen as a negative and
declining one, it will be if he has another season like his last. Some other
deterrents include a significant amount of bonus dollars he's entitled to over
the deal, and a modified no-trade clause (NTC).

He's still due $11.5 million in signing bonuses over the remaining four years
(his 2018-19 bonus was paid on July 1). In total there';s $19 million still
left to be paid when you add up the bonuses and salary owed. His modified NTC
limits a deal to eight teams unless waived before June 30, 2022. After that,
the NTC extends to a list of ten teams he can be traded to. So can he return to
 form and avoid a messy divorce from the club? He';s the Oiler with the most to
 prove.Ty Rattie';s Golden Opportunity

Another player with a lot to prove is Ty Rattie. The 25-year-old has played
sparingly in the NHL with just 49 career games under his belt spread over five
seasons. Of those 49 games, 14 of them came in 2017-18 during a late-season
call-up from the AHL';s Bakersfield Condors. The five-year 'veteran' put up
nine points in 14 games to end the 2017-18 season and enters training camp with
 the job to lose.Related: Ty Rattie';s Golden Opportunity

Rattie is arguably in the most enviable position of any player in the NHL -
having a golden opportunity to start the year riding shotgun to McDavid on the
Oilers top line. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is expected to fill the spot on the left
side, thus reuniting a line that had modest success to end last season. The
real question with Rattie is whether or not he can fill those big shoes and
lofty expectations.Ty Rattie (Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports)

The Hockey News is predicting a modest 21-point year for Rattie in their
Ultimate Pool Guide. That likely means what most others believe - that Rattie
will eventually lose the job to someone whether internal or external at some
point. The right wing depth chart is a complete wild card, so anything is
possible, and Rattie could fit anywhere from No. 1-4 on the depth chart, and no
 one would blink an eye.

He';s on an excellent value contract at $800,000 and is a restricted free agent
 (RFA) next summer with arbitration rights. One criticism that can be made is
this; outside of that 14 game stint with Edmonton, Rattie hasn';t done much in
the other 35 games in his career (five points). Another is when you look at his
 2017-18 season in two parts.

In his first eight games, Rattie registered four goals and seven points, but in
 his final six games, he got on the scoresheet in just one game (two points).
Thus, the jury is still out on the 32nd overall pick in the 2011 NHL Draft. Can
 he be a consistent top-six scorer for the Oilers?

We';ll know soon enough.Cam Talbot: Is He a True No.1?

Lastly, this team is not going anywhere without goaltending. Cam Talbot was a
shell of his 2016-17 self as the wheels completely fell off the bus for him.
The 31-year-old had a rough 3.02 goals against average (GAA) and a .908 save
percentage (SV%) through 67 games. Those numbers are well below his career
average (also factor in that his career average has now dipped due to this
year) of a 2.50 GAA and a .918 SV% through 253 career games.

He wasn';t sharp early, and more often than not, the Oilers were allowing the
first goal of the game, sometimes even on the first shot of the game. That
can';t happen again if this team is going to try to get back to the playoffs.
With his inconsistency last year, Chiarelli went out and signed KHL standout
Mikko Koskinen to one of the more costly deals for a backup goalie at $2.5
million. He';s expected to compete for time in the crease with Talbot.Cam
Talbot (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

So far Koskinen has turned a lot of heads and even made them look upwards due
to his massive 6-foot-6 frame. The jury is out on him as a backup, and a 60-22
or a 55-27 split in the starting duties seems like the plan. Will more rest for
 Talbot mean more quality starts? Time will tell. In the meantime, the Pacific
Division has some quality starters playing for some quality teams.

If Edmonton is going to catapult themselves back up the standings, they';ll
need Talbot to deliver in whatever number of starts he has this year. From all
accounts, the Oilers are getting a motivated goalie looking to silence his
doubters while entering a contract year. If that doesn';t give you the recipe
for a bounce-back year, what does?

The post Oilers With the Most to Prove: Lucic, Rattie & Talbot appeared first
on The Hockey Writers.

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