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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   St. Louis Blues 2018-19 Season Preview   September 16, 2018
 4:22 PM *  

What a difference a summer makes.

Five months ago, the Blues were sputtering to the end of their season, losing
five of their final six games to miss the playoffs by just one point. Fans were
 disgusted with their team and their general manager, certain that they were
headed towards another offseason with minor tweaks instead of major changes.

Flash forward one month: the Blues are declared the winners of the offseason by
 ESPN';s Greg Wyshynski. Though they lost out on the John Tavares sweepstakes,
the Blues made a bevy of moves that overhauled their roster in significant
ways. Add to that a farm system that is consistently ranked in the top five in
the league, and the Blues are once again poised to be a significant competitor
for many years to come.Blues'; GM Doug Armstrong (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY
Sports)

Blues'; fans are now chomping at the bit to get the season started, because
there are still many questions to answer: will new star center Ryan O';Reilly
find chemistry with Vladimir Tarasenko? Where will prospects like Robert Thomas
 and Jordan Kyrou end up? How will Jake Allen stand up to the rigors of another
 season?

The Blues need to answer these questions and many more this season, and they
must find themselves in a playoff position at year';s end. But the moves
they';ve made make them look like a legitimate contender in 2018-19.

2017-18 Record: 44-32-6, 94 points (5th in Central Division, 9th in Western
Conference, 17th in NHL standings) Offseason MovesKey Roster Additions:

Tyler BozakChad JohnsonPatrick MaroonDavid PerronRyan O';Reilly

Patrik Berglund, St. Louis Blues, January 6, 2018 (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)Key Roster Losses:

Patrik BerglundKyle BrodziakCarter HuttonVladimir SobotkaPaul Stastny (at trade
 deadline)Tage ThompsonScottie Upshall

2018 NHL Entry Draft:

Dominik Bokk (1st round, 25th overall)Scott Perunovich (2nd round, 45th
overall)Joel Hofer (4th round, 107th overall)Hugh McGing (5th round, 138th
overall)Matthias LaFerriere (6th round, 169th overall)Tyler Tucker (7th round,
200th overall)

Organizational Changes

Other than Ken Hitchcock';s firing a year and a half ago, the Blues';
organization has remained remarkably consistent in the Doug Armstrong era. Mike
 Yeo remains as head coach, despite his struggles on the power play. Darryl
Sydor stepped down as an assistant coach, but was replaced by former Blue Mike
Van Ryn.

The biggest single change organizationally is the partnership the Blues have
established with the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL. With the expansion last
season, the Blues were the odd man out in having a steady AHL partnership, an
error which negatively affected many of their prospects. Now, the Blues have
their farm system in order again, and have installed Drew Bannister, OHL coach
of the year, as the head coach in San Antonio.Drew Bannister, San Antonio
Rampage Head Coach (Photo by Terry Wilson / OHL Images)

In the front office, Martin Brodeur';s tenure in the Blues organization came to
 an end rather suddenly. Brodeur returned to the franchise with which he is
synonymous, the New Jersey Devils, in order to spend more time with his family.
 Taking his place as assistant GM will be Bill Armstrong, who will maintain his
 title as Scouting Director. It';s a much-deserved promotion for Armstrong, who
 would have been an appealing target for other franchises had the Blues not
moved him up in their own.

With Doug Armstrong signed to a four-year extension last season, and given the
ensuing success of the Blues'; offseason, it will be Yeo who starts the year
under the microscope. He';s not exactly in the hot seat, but if the redesigned
Blues can';t find traction, particularly on the power play, you can expect to
hear much of the St. Louis fan base';s discontent directed at
Yeo.ForwardsProjected Lines

Patrick Maroon - Ryan O';Reilly - Vladimir Tarasenko

Jaden Schwartz - Brayden Schenn - David Perron

Robby Fabbri - Tyler Bozak - Alex Steen

Ivan Barbashev - Robert Thomas - Dmitrij JaskinRyan O';Reilly

The biggest acquisition of the offseason came when the Blues traded a haul of
roster players, picks, and prospect Tage Thompson in exchange for Ryan
O';Reilly. O';Reilly was the final piece in an overhaul of the Blues'; center
core that included trading for Brayden Schenn at the 2017 draft, trading Paul
Stastny, signing Tyler Bozak, and drafting Robert Thomas.Ryan O';Reilly,
Buffalo Sabres, Dec. 14, 2017 (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The time was right for the Sabres to part ways with O';Reilly, particularly
after he opened up about his struggle with the culture in Buffalo in some
controversial comments at the end of the year. Now the Blues hope O';Reilly
will recapture his love of the game playing in St. Louis, and find chemistry
with star winger Vladimir Tarasenko. If he has the kind of breakout year that
Schenn did last year after joining the Blues, St. Louis will find itself with
one of the strongest center cores in the league very quickly.Robby Fabbri

Robby Fabbri is expected to return this season after missing a season and a
half with consecutive knee injuries. Before his first injury, he was one of the
 Blues'; young stars, posting 18 goals and 37 points as a rookie and was on
pace for a 46-point season before his injury. But two consecutive injuries can
take a serious toll on the body, not to mention the damage it could do to a
young player';s confidence.

As such, Fabbri is perhaps the biggest wild card on the Blues'; roster. If he
is somehow able to recapture the momentum he had a year and a half ago, he will
 be an incredible addition to the Blues'; forward group and round out one of
the more formidable top-9';s in the Western Conference. If Fabbri cannot
perform at that level, it may open up an opportunity for one of the Blues';
prospects, like Jordan Kyrou or Sammy Blais, to earn regular playing
time.Patrick Maroon

The final big move of the Blues'; offseason was signing hometown kid Patrick
Maroon to an outrageously team-friendly, one-year, $1.75 million contract.
Maroon, who turned down bigger and longer-term offers from other teams,
expressed his excitement about coming home in a tweet, saying, "Excitement is
an understatement! Can';t wait to join the @StLouisBlues, this is a dream come
true!!"New Jersey Devils left winger Patrick Maroon (Kim Klement-USA TODAY
Sports)

Maroon, affectionately known as "The Big Rig," will bring much-needed size and
grit to a Blues roster that has been without it since losing David Backes and
Troy Brouwer two years ago. There';s no telling what impact Maroon might have,
but the story of the local boy playing for the hometown team will be one to
watch all season.The Fourth Line

One of the areas of least certainty on the Blues'; roster is their fourth line.
 Longtime fourth line stalwarts like Kyle Brodziak, Scottie Upshall, and Ryan
Reaves have left, leaving a completely new group to take on their energizing
role. More and more it seems like the fourth line will also be home for Blues';
 top prospect Robert Thomas entering the season.Robert Thomas (David Banks-USA
TODAY Sports)

Whether Thomas stays on the fourth line long term depends on how quickly he
adjusts to the NHL game, as well as where other needs open up. Entering the
season, Thomas will likely play with Dmitrij Jaskin consistently, while the
other wing will be manned by a rotation of several different players that could
 include Chris Thorburn, Oskar Sundqvist, and Ivan Barbashev. Nikita Soshnikov,
 who figured to be a part of the fourth line group, is already on the shelf
with a concussion, one of many in his career.DefenseProjected Pairings

Joel Edmundson - Alex Pietrangelo

Vince Dunn - Colton Parayko

Jay Bouwmeester - Carl GunnarssonVince Dunn

Vince Dunn surprised a lot of people, including many Blues'; fans, with his
breakout season last year. He averaged over 17 minutes per game and finished
with 24 points in 75 games. Later in the season, Dunn was paired more regularly
 with Colton Parayko, a potent pairing of two-way defensemen that can produce
points at a high rate.Blues defenseman Vince Dunn. (Brad Rempel-USA TODAY
Sports)

Dunn';s primary goal this season will be avoiding the notorious "sophomore
slump". If he can, he is poised to play 18-22 minutes per game and could evolve
 into the quarterback of one of the power-play units. He has that level of
speed, hockey-IQ, and puck-moving skill. If Dunn slumps, the Blues have lots of
 defenders who can pick up some of the slack; however, no one behind him offers
 the overall upside that Dunn';s game presents.The Third Pairing

As it stands, the Blues'; third pairing seems most likely to be the partnership
 of Gunnarsson and Bouwmeester, if both are healthy to start the season. It
will be a strange transition year for the Blues, with both players being on the
 final year of their contract and likely heading elsewhere after the season.

This pairing could go one of two ways. At its best, the two veterans will be
helped by the limited minutes they';ll receive in a third pairing role and
evolve into a steady, experienced partnership that could put out fires. At
worst, Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson will show the rust that long careers and
recent injuries have put on them, and will be a real weakness for the team.

In the worst-case scenario, the Blues do have options. Robert Bortuzzo remains
with the team and is a steady hand that the Blues are willing to deploy up and
down the lineup. Behind him, the team has several prospects, including Jordan
Schmaltz (who recently signed a two-year extension), Jake Walman, and Niko
Mikkola. Each provides a different set of skills that could help but as long as
 Bouwmeester and Gunnarsson are healthy, their contracts will likely earn them
the first shot at playing time on the third pairing.Goaltending

The team';s Achilles'; heel is goaltending. Jake Allen was inconsistent at best
 last season, and now sits as the unquestioned number one with the departure of
 Carter Hutton. Allen had a great month of October and was all right through
December, but struggled mightily in January, where he posted an .871 save
percentage and a 4.93 goals-against average in just three games, and in
February where he collected an .877 SV% and a 3.32 GAA in eight games.Jake
Allen (Dennis Wierzbicki-USA TODAY Sports) 

Last year, Allen was buoyed by the exceptional play of backup Hutton. But
Hutton has moved to a bigger role in Buffalo, while the Blues have signed
erstwhile Sabres backup Chad Johnson. As Johnson';s numbers last season
weren';t much better than Allen';s at his worst, the onus is on Allen to hold
down the net this year. If he';s again inconsistent, the Blues'; offseason
moves may be for nought.

Behind Johnson looms Blues'; top goaltending prospect Ville Husso. Husso had a
tremendous season in the AHL last year, even being named to the AHL All-Rookie
Team. But the Finnish goaltender is only 23, and he would benefit from another
year of seasoning. It';s tough to say how he';d respond if thrust into a
significant NHL role, but it';s probable that the Blues'; front office would
rather not find out.Prospect Watch: Thomas, Kyrou, and More

One of the potential X-factors of the season is what impact if any, the
Blues'; top prospects will have. Thomas and Kyrou are both consistently ranked
in the top-3o NHL prospects and their styles offer very different things to
the roster. Thomas offers the Hockey-IQ and playmaking ability that could make
him the number one center the Blues have sought for many years, while Kyrou has
 the elite speed and shooting acumen that could make him almost as big a
scoring threat as Tarsenko.BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 26: Jordan Kyrou (Photo by
Kevin Hoffman/Getty Images)

Behind Kyrou and Thomas are a number of prospects that could make an impact in
the near future. Higher-rated prospects like Klim Kostin and Dominik Bokk are
probably farther off, but behind them are players like Sammy Blais, Erik Foley,
 and Nolan Stevens who are more experienced and ready to fill roles in the NHL.
 While none of them necessarily have futures as top-6 superstars, any of them
could play some role in the bottom six as soon as this season.

The Blues'; depth is an incredible turnaround from last year when a rash of
preseason injuries had Blues'; brass scrambling for external solutions. Now,
when the team suffers injuries, they';ll have any number of young players who
can step in to fill the void. Whether those players can fill their skates
remains to be seen, but the Blues have no shortage of options and that';s a
significant improvement from years past.What to Expect

Few teams look as different today from last season';s roster as do the Blues.
New arrivals like Maroon, Bozak, Perron, and O';Reilly have revitalized the
top-9, while a number of prospects are waiting in the wings to make an impact.
As Allen said in a press conference recently, "It';s a great time to be a
Blue."

"It's a great time to be a Blue, to be honest." - @34jallen #stlblues
pic.twitter.com/KKMqfVPo91

- St. Louis Blues (@StLouisBlues) September 15, 2018

Whether it remains fun to be a Blue rests largely on Allen';s shoulders. His
inconsistency last year was perhaps the primary reason the Blues missed the
playoffs by only one point and now he doesn';t have Hutton to bail him out. If
Allen can be the phenomenal goalie he';s been in the past, as he was when he
single-handedly carried the Blues through the first round of the playoffs in
2016, it';s shaping up to be an incredible year. But if the Blues fall short,
it will likely be because Allen has struggled again.

On defense, the Blues have one of the most impressive young groups of four in
the league, led by captain Alex Pietrangelo. Whether the third pairing is
staffed by aging veterans or young upstarts, defense should be a strength for
the team again.Alex Pietrangelo, St. Louis Blues, January 6, 2018 (Amy Irvin /
The Hockey Writers)

Up front, there are endless combinations of linemates for Yeo to play with. The
 Blues may face some of the challenges that overhauled teams often face early
in the year, starting slow as the forwards try to build chemistry. But if the
lines can find that chemistry, there';s no reason the forwards can';t compete
with the best groups in the West.The Bottom Line: Playoffs or Bust

Quite simply, the Blues must return to the playoffs in 2019. With the amount of
 work Armstrong has done to redefine his roster, there is no excuse for the
team to struggle to make the postseason, even in a loaded Western Conference.

While we can';t see the future, the most likely culprits if the Blues miss out
on playoff hockey are Allen and Johnson. The pressure will be on Allen from the
 drop of the puck on opening night to prove that he is the kind of goalie who
can carry the workload of a true number one. If Johnson is called upon, he
needs to prove that he can be a suitable backup.

If the Blues miss the playoffs, there';s no telling what will happen but it
likely won';t bode well for Allen and could mean the end of  Yeo';s tenure as
well.Mike Yeo, St. Louis Blues, January 6, 2018. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)

But Blues'; fans have no reason to be pessimistic. They are entitled to their
excitement and should expect playoff hockey to return to St. Louis. While the
roster may not quite measure up to the Nashville Predators, the Winnipeg Jets,
and the newly reinforced San Jose Sharks, they should be at the top of the next
 class of Western Conference teams and are poised to grow into a perennial
contender once again.

The post St. Louis Blues 2018-19 Season Preview appeared first on The Hockey
Writers.

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