There were 217 picks made over seven rounds in the 2018 NHL Draft, and the
reality is that only a few of them will be winners. Most draft selections are
risks - sometimes they pan out, but many times they fizzle away or become
smaller-role players, finding a place on the third lines or bottom pairings of
teams.

According to TSN (and with a little math on my end), players drafted in the
second round have about at 10.4% chance of becoming top-six forwards or
top-four defensemen. That number drops to 7.5% in the third round, and 4.3% in
the fourth round. And yet, the Anaheim Ducks have defied worse odds in later
rounds thanks to Director of Professional/Amateur Scouting Martin Madden and
his team.

Since 2009, they have drafted two top-pairing defensemen in the fourth and
sixth rounds and an electric goalscorer in the seventh round, with potential
for more on the way. Just how surprising are these successes? Let';s take a
look.Josh Manson

What could be truly one of the most interesting picks in recent NHL history,
the 6-foot-3, 215-pound stud defenseman was drafted in the sixth round with the
 160th pick. What';s more, Manson spent much of his youth and Junior hockey
days playing as a forward. As Kyle Shohara at NHL.com notes, Manson billed
himself as an "everyday fourth-line winger" until one of his coaches at the
Salmon Arms Silverbacks BCHL team convinced him to make the switch.Josh Manson
controlling the puck. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

That fourth-line winger has evolved into one of the best shutdown defensemen in
 the league. A quick video search will tell you that Manson is well-known for
his heavy hitting, a stat in which he';s tallied 609 times over his 261 games
played, including this one against the Maple Leafs'; Jordan van Riemsdyk:

At pick No. 160, the 26-year-old didn';t have great odds of becoming a regular
roster player, let alone a top pairing defenseman. In fact, only 4.4% of
defensemen drafted between picks 151-165 have cracked the top-four. Despite
this, Manson continues to improve his game with every season. 2017-18 was no
exception, with his underlying advanced stats looking solid while posting his
best offensive season ever, scoring more points than in the previous three
seasons combined.Ondrej Kase

While Andrew Cogliano is famous for his durability and "never quit" attitude,
he';s got some competition from youngster Ondrej Kase. Constantly skating
around the ice at impressive speeds, Kase';s sophomore season was a huge year
for him. In just 66 games, the Czech forward netted 20 goals and 38 points,
more than doubling his points total from the year before despite only playing
11 more games.

What';s most impressive about his jump is that Kase plays on the third line,
averaging only 13:55 a night and spending little time on a weak Ducks power
play. In February of 2018, Kase ranked second in the league for 5-on-5 goals
per hour - outranking players like William Karlsson, Alex Ovechkin, and Nathan
Mackinnon.

Ondrej Kase had my curiosity this summer when I was looking at the most
interesting breakout candidates, and now he certainly has my attention..
pic.twitter.com/91cGlebh9Y

- Dimitri Filipovic (@DimFilipovic) February 13, 2018

Here';s the kicker: Kase was drafted 205th overall in 2014. As in the seventh
round with only five people drafted after him. By TSN';s numbers, only 2.2% of
forwards picked between 196 and 210 will see top-six time. In fact, only 8.3%
of them play over 100 games at all, with 96.1% of them playing at most on the
fourth line. It';s safe to say that Kase has far exceeded expectations, and
rumblings from the Ducks'; camp indicate that he will be rewarded with his
achievements with more playing time in the 2018-19 season, perhaps on a line
with Adam Henrique and Jakob Silfverberg.

Kase has benefited from having softer competition while on the third line, but
there is hope that he can continue to succeed playing against tougher foes.
While he may be small, he';s very defensively responsible and would benefit
from the excellent backchecking of Silfverberg and Henrique. His recent
contract extension could prove to be an incredible move.Sami Vatanen

Although he may no longer wear a Ducks jersey, Sami Vatanen was an important
part of Anaheim';s team for several years. He now plays an even more important
role for the New Jersey Devils, where he averaged over 22 minutes a night in
the 2017-18 season. The Ducks drafted Vatanen in the fourth round, 106 overall,
 a spot where only 4.2% of defensive picks will play a top-four role.Sami
Vatanen post-trade. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Known for his offensive talents, especially on the power play, Vatanen had
several crucial goals for the Ducks. In the 2017-18 season, he struggled under
Randy Carlyle';s system and had difficulty recovering from a shoulder injury
sustained in the season before.

Being traded to New Jersey seems to have been the change Vatanen needed. He
scored 28 points in 57 games for the Devils and added what Gerard Lionetti at
All About The Jersey called "a stabilizing presence that the Devils have craved
 on the back end."Troy Terry, Matt Beleskey, and More

In addition to the three players already listed, the Ducks have made several
other crucial, late draft picks. Maple Leaf';s goaltender Frederik Andersen,
who once shared the net with now-starter John Gibson, was picked in the third
round at 87th overall at the 2012 draft. Of course, this was after Andersen had
 already been picked 187th overall by the Carolina Hurricanes in 2010, but the
two couldn';t come to terms on a deal.

In 2006, Matt Beleskey was taken in the fourth round at pick No. 112. Beleskey
played crucial minutes for the Ducks and had an excellent playoff performance
in the Ducks'; 2014-15 season. The performance would earn him an impressive
contract with the Boston Bruins.

Finally, looking towards the future. In 2014, the Ducks used their fifth-round
pick to select Troy Terry. Although he has not yet proven himself, Terry has
shown flashes of high-level skill, including his performances for the 2018 U.S.
 Olympic Hockey team and his time on the U.S. WJC team. Time will tell how
effective Terry can play at the professional level, but Ducks fans and staff
have high hopes.

The post Ducks'; Draft Success Goes Beyond the 3rd Round appeared first on The
Hockey Writers.

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