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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   Edmonton Oilers 2018-19 Season Preview   September 10, 2018
 11:22 AM *  

The Edmonton Oilers were quick to turn the page on a forgettable 2017-18 season
 where nothing went their way. After coming within one win of the Western
Conference Final, the club nosedived through the NHL standings finishing 25
points lower and out of the playoffs for the 11th time in 12 years.

For fans, that meant another season of meaningless hockey from February
onwards. To be frank, the club was barely treading water after US Thanksgiving
last fall. With both general manager Peter Chiarelli and head coach Todd
McLellan coming back for another season, it';s a make or break year for the
franchise.Related: Make or Break Year for Chiarelli, McLellan, Oilers

If the club finishes outside of the playoffs for a third time in four years
under that regime, both could find themselves unemployed by season';s end. The
silver lining in all of this is the emergence of Connor McDavid, and with No.
97 in the picture, folks won';t be quick to dismiss the squad from Northern
Alberta.Connor McDavid (Andy Devlin/NHLI via Getty Images)

The Pacific Division isn';t going to be a waltz in the park either. The
defending Western Conference Champions, the Vegas Golden Knights, are once
again being seen as contenders. The Oilers will also be trying to keep pace
with the Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks.

Two teams that might fall behind are the Arizona Coyotes and Vancouver Canucks,
 but the parity of today';s NHL makes predictions that much harder. Case in
point - last year';s performance by the Golden Knights. So can the Oilers get
back to the playoffs or will they be forced to make some tough decisions next
spring?

Let';s take a deep dive into the Oilers 2018-19 season preview.Off-Season Moves

Key Roster Additions

Evan Bouchard (RD) - Drafted 10th overall (2018 NHL Draft), signed three-year
ELCKyle Brodziak (C) - UFA signing, two years at $1.15 million perKevin Gravel
(LD) - UFA signing, one year at $700,000Jakub Jerabek (LD) - UFA signing, one
year at $1 millionMikko Koskinen (G) - UFA signing, one year at
$2.5 millionTobias Rieder (LW/RW) - UFA signing, one year at $2 million

* Jason Garrison (D) and Scottie Upshall (F) were each signed to a professional
 tryout (PTO)Mikko Koskinen (Kelvin Kuo-USA TODAY Sports)

Key Roster Subtractions

Yohann Auvitu (RD) - signed with HK Sochi (KHL)Laurent Brossoit (G) - signed
with Winnipeg JetsEric Gryba (LD) - signed with New Jersey DevilsJoey LaLeggia
(LW) - signed with St. Louis BluesIiro Pakarinen (RW) - signed with Metallurg
Magnitogorsk (KHL)Anton Slepyshev (LW) - signed with CSKA Moskva (KHL)

Edmonton';s 2018 NHL Draft Picks

Oiler fans should be quite happy with the haul the club was able to walk away
with on draft weekend back in June. With the Arizona Coyotes and New York
Rangers going off the board by selecting Barrett Hayton (fifth), and Vitali
Kravtsov (ninth), Edmonton walked into an enviable situation.Related: Edmonton
Oilers - 2018 NHL Draft Review

With Evan Bouchard, Oliver Wahlstrom, and Noah Dobson available, Chiarelli and
company walked away with the top scoring defenseman out of the OHL. Bouchard,
18, has a legitimate shot at starting the year with a nine-game audition thanks
 to the injury to Andrej Sekera.Evan Bouchard (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

If he ends up back in the OHL with the London Knights, it';s hard not to fathom
 him eclipsing 100 points, and being a shoo-in for Canada at the upcoming World
 Junior Championships. Ryan McLeod is a smooth-skating two-way forward that has
 good offensive upside. He';s another candidate to play for Canada.

Olivier Rodrigue was the top-ranked North American goalie according to NHL
Central Scouting. The Oilers traded the 71st and 133rd selections to move up
and snag Rodrigue who has good overall upside and athleticism. This core group
of Bouchard, McLeod, and Rodrigue should give Edmonton three NHL players in due
 time.

Edmonton Oilers - 2018 NHL Draft Picks

PickPlayerPosDrafted FromGPGAPTS

1, 10thEvan BouchardDLondon (OHL)67256287

2, 40thRyan McLeodCMississauga (OHL)68264470

2, 62ndOlivier RodrigueGDrummondville (QMJHL)53312.54.903

6, 164thMichael KesselringDNew Hampton (HS)38112334

7, 195thPatrik SiikanenCBlues (Liiga- Jr A)2410717

Not to be outdone, the Oilers took a flyer on two other dark horses to round
out their draft class. Michael Kesselring is a tall, lanky offensive
defenseman who will suit up for the Des Moines Buccaneers in the USHL this
upcoming season. He';s a project that could provide some benefit down the road.

Patrik Siikanen has shown year-after-year improvement while progressing through
 the Espoo Blues junior program. He';s got an opportunity to be a decent depth
scorer at the NHL level eventually. In the meantime, he';ll have a glorious
chance to suit up for Finland at the upcoming WJC.Oilers Top 10 Prospects

A few years ago the Oilers prospect pool was barren outside of the
first-rounders they were landing year after year. A colossal criticism has been
 Edmonton';s inability to identify talent outside of that round, essentially
the supporting staff around those building blocks.Related: Edmonton Oilers Top
10 Prospects

Since Chiarelli';s first draft in 2015, the club has managed to slowly restock
the cupboards with some compelling hopefuls that should pay dividends
shortly. The goaltending pool is as deep as it';s ever been with Stuart
Skinner, Olivier Rodrigue, Shane Starrett, Dylan Wells, and Hayden Hawkey
providing excellent depth.

Skinner turns pro this coming season and will get a hefty workload in the AHL
with Bakersfield. He';s the closest thing Edmonton has to a goalie with
starting potential down the road.Stuart Skinner (Robert Murray/WHL)

The defense is headlined by Bouchard, Ethan Bear, and Caleb Jones. They';re not
 alone as William Lagesson, and Filip Berglund are sleepers to make an NHL
impact in a few years. Lagesson joins a new group of prospects like Tyler
Benson, Joey Dudek, Cameron Hebig, and Cooper Marody (among others) that turn
pro and will strengthen the depth in Bakersfield.

Edmonton Oilers - Top 10 Prospects

RankPlayer2017-18 TeamGP

GPG

WA

GAAPTS

SV%

1Evan Bouchard (RD)London (OHL)67256287

2Kailer Yamamoto (RW)Spokane (WHL)40214364

3Stuart Skinner (G)Swift Current (WHL)56303.06.905

4Ethan Bear (RD)Bakersfield (AHL)3761218

5Tyler Benson (LW)Vancouver (WHL)58274269

6Cooper Marody (C)U. Michigan (NCAA)40163551

7Ryan McLeod (C)Mississauga (OHL)68264470

8Caleb Jones (LD)Bakersfield (AHL)5821517

9Kirill Maksimov (RW)Niagara (OHL)62344680

10Ostap Safin (RW)Saint John (QMJHL)61263258

Bouchard, Yamamoto, and Skinner are three future building blocks at three
different positions. With the prospect depth slowly coming together, it';s
created a ripple effect that brings in a fresh crop year after year that keeps
internal competition at a high.Related: 5 Oilers Prospects to Watch in 2018-19

Some sleepers that could end up surprising everyone are Kirill Maksimov and
Ostap Safin. Maksimov could score 50 goals in the OHL this year, while Safin
(if traded to a QMJHL contender) could explode offensively.Oilers';
Organizational Changes

This is undoubtedly a make or break year for Chiarelli, McLellan, and the
Oilers. The Oilers GM banked on his team to progress and perform along the
lines of the 2016-17 team that was one win away from the Western Conference
Final.

Instead, the group regressed, leaving everyone to wonder whether that year or
this last one was a real marker of where this team truly is. Chiarelli is back
 again after getting a vote of confidence from the organization';s higher-ups
(Bob Nicholson, and owner Daryl Katz). However this summer he wasn';t able to
add a top-four defender by dangling the 10th overall selection in the draft.

Instead, the club used the pick on the aforementioned Bouchard. He didn';t move
 Milan Lucic, who underperformed with a hefty contract. Chiarelli also didn';t
have the cap space to make a significant change or was at least unwilling.

He';s doubled down on the same core group, and aside from some bargain moves,
it';s essentially the same team returning in 2018-19. That could prove
troubling. There';s a glaring need on defense for someone to quarterback the
power play (PP).

There';s a need for a top-six goal scorer ever since Taylor Hall and Jordan
Eberle were traded. It';s questionable why they signed Mikko Koskinen to such
an expensive deal to be a backup as well. Instead, the only significant
organizational change made was behind the bench, to McLellan';s coaching
compadres.Related: New Coaches, Better Playoff Hopes?

Jay Woodcroft was re-assigned as the head coach down on the farm, while the
club parted ways with Jim Johnson and Ian Herbers. Glen Gulutzan, Trent Yawney,
 and Manny Viveiros are the new hires, and the hope is that the new staff can
fix the PP and penalty kill (PK) that finished 31st and 25th in the
league.Goaltending

There';s no way about it for Edmonton - for them to be a playoff team, Cam
Talbot needs to return to form. His 3.02 goals against average (GAA) and .908
save percentage (SV%) through 67 games only tell part of the story. An early
season injury forced him to miss two weeks with an undisclosed upper-body
issue.

During his absence, the Oilers other options in goal - Laurent Brossoit and Al
Montoya - struggled. On 13 different occasions last season, the Oilers allowed
 the first goal on the first shot of the game. Laurent Brossoit was eventually
banished to the AHL aside from a few recalls to fill a backup spot
periodically.

Al Montoya started just five games after being acquired mid-season. So once
again, McLellan had no faith in his backups.Cam Talbot (Charles LeClaire-USA
TODAY Sports)

Will the addition of a high ticket goalie like Koskinen at $2.5 million change
his mind? The cost of that deal leads you to believe one thing - Koskinen
isn';t here to wear a ballcap on the bench. Koskinen is here to push Talbot and
 dig into the 65.3 games he';s averaged over the past three years.Related:
Oilers Sign Mikko Koskinen: Expectations & Thoughts

That';s a lot of money and a lot of hope to be putting into a goaltender who
has just four NHL games under his belt, almost eight years ago. What happens
in the crease is going to be a noteworthy storyline all year.

Goaltenders 2017-18 Stats

PlayerTeamGPW-L-OTGAASV%SO

1. Cam TalbotEdmonton6731-31-33.02.9081

2. Mikko KoskinenSt. Petersburg SKA2922-4-11.57.9375

It';s likely that Talbot and Koskinen split the starts 60-22, and the Oilers
No. 1 has a year that';s more reflective of his career numbers at a 2.50 GAA
and a .918 SV%. Edmonton will eventually have to figure their goaltending
situation out.

Both goalies are set to become unrestricted free agents (UFA) next summer. If
Talbot knocks it out of the park in a contract year, Edmonton';s cap situation
is going to get that much tighter.Defense

Andrej Sekera';s injury has undoubtedly left a hole on the Oilers backend. Is
his absence a small leak or a gaping hole? Last season the Oilers struggled
without addressing his absence for the first three months of the year. In
total, Sekera missed 46 games last season.Related: Options to Replace Andrej
Sekera

Now that he';s torn his Achilles, Edmonton is right back to square one trying
to address their defense. He';s out indefinitely, and to be frank, could miss
the entire 2018-19 season. That means when the 23-man roster is finalized in
October, Chiarelli will be able to place Sekera';s $5.5 million cap hit on
Long-Term Injured Reserve (LTIR).

Before the Sekera injury, Chiarelli signed Kevin Gravel and re-signed Keegan
Lowe to compete for the No. 7 job. As soon as the Sekera injury was announced,
Chiarelli went out and signed Jakub Jerabek to a one-year $1 million deal, and
got Garrison to camp on a PTO.Andrej Sekera (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY)

Looking at the current depth chart, there';s an obvious need for a top-four
puck-moving defender, preferably on the right side. In the meantime, the
likelihood of Bouchard starting the year in Edmonton is quite high, whether
some fans think it';s the right decision or not.Related: Oilers Opening Night
Roster Predictions: Goalies & Defense

Adding another 18-year-old and asking him to solve the club';s woes hasn';t
worked in the past, and it';s even harder to do so as a blueliner. That said,
Bouchard';s NHL Equivalent (NHLe) from last season projected him at 34
points. Take all that with a grain of salt. The 10th overall pick in 2018 is a
 wild card of sorts.

If he stays, great. If he doesn';t, Chiarelli should be aggressive in
addressing the need for another strong defender. For his cap situation, it
might be more worthwhile looking at defensemen on expiring contracts. With the
ability to move Kris Russell to either side, it doesn';t matter what side that
defender plays.Evan Bouchard (Terry Wilson/OHL Images)

Loading up on the leftorium could mean icing three pairings with good
puck-movers. Erik Karlsson is a pipedream, but Tyler Myers, Jay Bouwmeester,
Alex Edler, Anton Stralman, Jake Gardiner, or a cheaper option like Jan Rutta
could all be a fit. But let';s let the situation play out and not put the cart
before the horse here.

A healthy year from Oscar Klefbom is a must for this franchise. The
25-year-old has missed 68 games over the past three years, and thus his
inability to stay healthy has become a glaring concern. When Klefbom is
healthy, he';s a true top-pairing defender.

Oilers Defense 2017-18 Stats

Left DefenseGPGPTSCF%Right DefenseGPGPTSCF%

Oscar Klefbom6652052.6Adam Larsson6341350.6

Darnell Nurse8262650.9Matt Benning7362151.6

Kris Russell7842148.9Evan Bouchard672587*NA

Jakub Jerabek362846.6Ethan Bear*181445.4

* Evan Bouchard's stats are from his season with the OHL's London Knights

Having him play through much of last year with lingering injuries didn';t help
matters. One thing that stood out was Klefbom';s desire to shoot the puck more.
 He exceeded his shot totals compared to the previous year by one (399 after
398) but did so in 16 fewer games.Related: 5 Predictions for the Oilers in
2018-19

If he can stay healthy, he';ll be expected to shoulder much of the heavy
lifting for this club. The same can be said for Adam Larsson who missed some
time due to his father';s passing and some minor injuries. The Oilers need
their top shutdown rearguard to take a step forward desperately.

Larsson will never win the public opinion battle that';s spewed out after the
Taylor Hall trade, but that doesn';t mean he isn';t a useful piece in the
puzzle in Edmonton. Another piece that';s unsigned is Darnell Nurse.Adam
Larsson (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Nurse led all Oiler blueliners in points (26) and took another step forward in
his evolution. A deal will be done in due time, and a bridge deal favors both
sides. Once signed, between Nurse, Klefbom, Bouchard, and Matt Benning they';ll
 have to fix the scoring issue from the backend.

Edmonton was one of the lowest scoring teams in the league from the backend in
2017-18, that can';t continue. Jakub Jerabek is a nice addition, but don';t
expect him to exceed much more than being a No.  6-7 tweener. He';s similar to
 what the club had with Yohann Auvitu last year, but with a little more upside.

Others in the system that could push for minutes include Ethan Bear, Caleb
Jones, Gravel, and Lowe. One guy who might surprise a lot of folks down on the
farm is William Lagesson who is quietly coming off a breakout year in
Sweden.Forwards

The onus offensively will once again fall on McDavid and a 50-goal, 110 point
season is not out of the question. Can he win a third straight Art Ross Trophy
in 2018-19? Entirely possible. With his concussion issues behind him, a
healthier Leon Draisaitl should provide this club with a solid one-two punch
down the middle.

The big question mark, however, is on the wings. Ty Rattie is being set up for
the most significant opportunity of his career with a shot at starting the year
 on the Oilers top line next to McDavid. Tobias Rieder is being expected to
bounce back after what was widely seen as a down year.Related: Ty Rattie';s
Golden Opportunity

Will we finally get a breakthrough for Jesse Puljujarvi? What about Milan
Lucic? Is he steadily on the decline or was last year an aberration? Kailer
Yamamoto is expected to start the year in Bakersfield, but if others falter,
he';ll be asked to help out in Edmonton.Connor McDavid (Andy Devlin/NHLI via
Getty Images)

It';s a lot of uncertainty, and a lot of hope and prayers that';s being put
into this team';s offensive depth. Rightfully so, it';s going to create some
uneasiness for fans that are hoping last year wasn';t reflective of what this
team is capable of.Related: Oilers Opening Night Roster Predictions: Forwards

The additions of Brodziak, Rieder, and potentially Scottie Upshall if he';s
signed after his PTO, should bolster the penalty kill (PK).

Left WingCenterRight Wing

1. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins1. Connor McDavid1. Ty Rattie

2. Milan Lucic2. Leon Draisaitl2. Tobias Rieder

3. Drake Caggiula3. Ryan Strome3. Jesse Puljujarvi

4. Jujhar Khaira4. Kyle Brodziak4. Zack Kassian

5. Pontus Aberg5. Cooper Marody*5. Scottie Upshall (PTO)

* Denotes players expected to start the year in the AHL

If Rattie, Rieder, Puljujarvi, and company fail to deliver the offense in their
 supporting roles, look for Chiarelli to make an early move to acquire a
veteran top-six scoring winger with some of the cap relief that';ll come once
Sekera is placed on LTIR.

This is a make or break year for Lucic. No one is expecting him to score just
one goal in the final 43 games of the year. But another 34 point season with a
$6 million price tag will likely see him jettisoned from Edmonton.Break Out
Player: Jesse Puljujarvi

Leading up to the 2016 NHL Draft there were three names people were raving
about; Auston Matthews, Patrik Laine, and Jesse Puljujarvi. All three were
expected to be taken within the top three selections.

Matthews and Laine went one and two respectively, but when the Columbus Blue
Jackets and their general manager Jarmo Kekalainen got to the podium they
passed on Puljujarvi who eventually went to the Oilers at No. 4. Thus sparked
a theory that Kekalainen knew something about his fellow Finnish native that
others maybe didn';t.

Matthews and Laine went on to near instant success in the NHL while Puljujarvi
is still spinning his wheels trying to get going. There';s a lot of factors
that have come to light. His maturity hasn';t been at the level it needs to be,
 he';s having difficulty adjusting to the North American life and the English
language, and he simply needs more time to reach his potential.Jesse Puljujarvi
 (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

A lot of fans believe that Puljujarvi can be the triggerman Edmonton needs in
their top-six. There are very few Oilers, if any, that have the kind of shot
release Puljujarvi has. He could one day be the shooter on the power play,
similar to how Alex Ovechkin, Nikita Kucherov, and Laine are utilized by their
clubs.

He might not have the same upside, but there';s a talented player that has yet
to break through here. Maybe it comes down to utilization. In his rookie year,
 he averaged just 11:15 in ice-time, of which just 0:49 per game was on the
power play. That made him the 12th most utilized forward.

That';s fourth-line territory. In 2017-18, he averaged just 13:22, once again
putting him 12th among Oiler forwards. Once again, only 0:45 in PP time. If you
 want this guy to break through, he needs to play. Expect McLellan to learn
from Puljujarvi';s lack of usage, and watch him blossom.Player With the Most to
 Prove: Milan Lucic

Without skipping a beat, the player with the most to prove in 2018-19 for the
Oilers is Milan Lucic. The 30-year-old is entering year three of seven of his
$42 million contract signed in July 2016. Lucic was more or less as advertised
during the first year of the deal putting up 23 goals and 50 points in 82
games.

Not just a physical presence, Lucic was a factor in the playoffs as well
registering six points in 13 games. It was the second year of that deal where
things turned sour. The power forward managed just ten goals and 34 points in
82 games and at times found himself playing on the third and fourth lines for
brief periods on some nights.Related: Milan Lucic Trade Talk

As he declined through the year, Lucic saw his ice-time drop from 17:09 in
2016-17 to 15:58 last season. The exclamation point was during the second half
of the year when Lucic managed just one goal through 43 games.Milan Lucic
(Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

After the year Lucic had naturally there were trade rumors that circulated
throughout the off-season. At one point it looked like Edmonton was going to
deal him during draft weekend in June. The smoke has settled, and Lucic is
still a member of the Oilers and will be here on opening night.

The hope is clear; Lucic must rebound or else the club will have to call this
signing a failure and find a way to deal the embattled forward. Trading him
won';t be easy, and the club would come out on the losing end of any Lucic
trade if he posts similar numbers for a second straight year.

Some other deterrents include a significant amount of bonus dollars he';s
entitled to over the deal, and a modified no-trade clause (NTC). He';s still
due $11.5 million in signing bonuses over the remaining four years (his 2018-19
 bonus was paid on July 1).

His modified NTC limits a deal to eight teams unless waived before June 30,
2022. After that, the NTC extends to a list of ten teams he can be traded
to.Players to Watch: Call-Ups

Ethan Bear: The 21-year-old shook off an early-season concussion, and overall
he had an impressive first year as a pro. He emerged as a top-pairing AHL
defender scoring 18 points in 37 games for the Condors. Bear also got into 18
games with the Oilers where he scored his first career NHL goal.

Now it';s about building on that success. So far this looks like a steal of a
pick at 124th overall in 2015. He';ll need to work on his defensive game to
earn another long opportunity, but he';s inching closer.

Tyler Benson: When anyone thinks of Tyler Benson these days almost always the
injury issue is brought up immediately. It';s true that Benson hasn';t had the
best of luck, and has yet to play a full season at any level since being
drafted 32nd overall in 2016.Related: Tyler Benson Back on Track

He turns pro this fall and is looking to make a mark, and the Oilers
undoubtedly want to know where he';s at after missing 95 games going back to
his draft year. An early season spark and some scoring concerns in Edmonton
could be Benson';s way into a bottom-six audition.Tyler Benson (Marissa
Baecker/Getty Images)

Cooper Marody: This guy is on the outside looking in, but he';s currently No. 5
 on the depth chart down the middle. There';s a real possibility Marody makes
enough noise to push himself ahead of Pontus Aberg and Drake Caggiula and will
his way into a bottom-six job on the wing this fall.

He was one of the best collegiate forwards last season with 51 points in 40
games with Michigan. His three-game run at the end of the year with the Condors
 was quite impressive as well.

Kailer Yamamoto: If and when the forward ranks have a significant slump in a
prominent scoring role, or there';s an injury, the first call-up is likely
going to be Kailer Yamamoto. After making the club out of training camp last
fall, it';s likely Yamamoto starts the year in Bakersfield.Related: Yamamoto
Tore Apart the WHL

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