The 2018-19 NHL season is a make-or-break year for many young Winnipeg Jets
players. Marko Dano needs to prove himself worthy of a long-term deal, JC Lipon
 needs to turn years of solid AHL play into a full-time NHL position, and
Patrik Laine needs to see how far he can stretch the AAV on his impending new
contract.

Among this crop of young talent needing to prove the scouts right, is Nic
Petan.The State of Petan Today

It is no secret that the Jets have one of the deepest and deadliest offenses in
 the NHL. With 273 goals last season, the Jets were second in the league in
goals for, behind only their fellow blue-wearing offensive juggernaut, the
Tampa Bay Lightning who had 290 goals for. Scoring was also spread evenly
throughout the lineup, with only Laine and Kyle Connor cracking 30 goals, with
44 and 31 respectively, while Nikolaj Ehlers was close with 29.

Yet with the departure of talented forwards Joel Armia and Paul Stastny this
offseason, the battle for roster spot will be as hot as ever. The problem for
Petan will be the players occupying slots ahead of him on the depth chart. As
The Hockey Writers'; Rob Mahone argued, players like Brendan Lemieux and Mason
Appleton have leapfrogged  Petan in the eyes of management, and new forward
darling Kristian Vesalainen has captured the attention of fans and pundits
alike.Once touted as a key piece in a would-be Jets dynasty, Nic Petan has
fallen out of favour with management and the fans. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)

Petan has been marginally effective for the Jets, offensively speaking. In 95
career games, the B.C.-born winger has five goals and 16 assists for 21 points
at a 0.22 PPG pace. These numbers are not good enough to secure a spot on an
elite team like Winnipeg';s.Petan';s Junior Numbers Forecasted Decline

A cursory glance at Petan';s junior production makes you wonder why the young
winger';s star has fallen so far. Throughout his 252 game WHL career, he
amassed 110 goals and 248 assists, adding 84 points in 88 playoff games, and 16
 points in 14 games for Team Canada at the U20 World Junior Hockey
Championships.

With a 1.42 PPG pace at the WHL level, it';s no wonder that the Jets were
salivating when Petan - who posted 46 goals and 74 assists in his draft year -
fell to them at 43rd overall in the 2013 NHL draft. Then, during the 2015 U20
World Juniors, fans that were on the fence about the undersized playmaker were
put on notice when he notched a hat-trick against Slovakia, punctuated by his
father descending the Air Canada Centre steps to toss his own hat on the ice.In
 one of Petan';s most memorable moments, the winger scored a hat-trick for
Canada during the U20 World Juniors (John Kenney, Montreal Gazette)

Despite his junior production and heart-warming moments, Petan has yet to make
his mark on a Jets team with great 'Finnishers'; like Laine, let alone blossom
offensively at the professional level. A glance at his year-by-year production
yields some answers. In his draft year, he put up the aforementioned 120 points
 in 71 games, then began his decline, with 113 points in 63 games, and then 89
points in 54 games before making the jump to the AHL. Taking games missed into
consideration, these numbers become 1.69, 1.79, and 1.65 PPG respectively,
lessening the shock but still showing a decline.

There could be many reasons for this drop-off. Petan was named the Portland
Winterhawks captain for the final season of his WHL career, pushing him into a
 larger leadership role and lessening his focus on production. There was also
the extra physical and mental strain of the World Junior tournament and three
years of deep playoff runs with the Winterhawks.

A slight drop of 0.04 PPG may not be enough to worry an NHL GM like Kevin
Cheveldayoff, but if his numbers are analyzed more thoroughly, the drop-off
becomes significant and may reveal that Petan will amount to nothing more
than a bottom-six forward on any club.Portland';s Nic Petan was a scoring
dynamo in junior, posting over 100 points in two of his three post-draft
seasons. (WHL.ca)EQ Points and Petan';s True Nature

For the 2016 edition of "Stat Shot", hockey analytics guru Iain Fyffe
constructed a series of calculations that are meant to take a player';s
junior/college hockey numbers and statistically control for various conditions.
 In particular, Fyffe gave bonuses to points recorded in playoff and World
Junior competition, added a modifier based on the competitiveness of a league -
 lead by the OHL as the most difficult and WHL as second most - and
statistically controlled for a player';s age, to create the stat 'EQ Points';.

Through this, a player';s production is 'equalized'; and can be compared more
accurately to his peers. For Petan, the results speak for themselves: From
120.99 EQ points in his draft year, there is a steep drop to 80.66 in 2013-14
and then 59.94 in his final junior season. Despite being boosted by points
recorded in the playoffs and during the WJC, they were not enough to reduce the
 impact of the age adjustment. Petan did not improve statistically, even though
 he was playing against younger and less experienced players.At first glance,
Petan';s number seem outstanding but relative to younger players he did not
improve much throughout his junior career. (Marissa
Baecker/www.shootthebreeze.ca)

This can be taken a step further by looking at how Petan';s junior and AHL
production should have translated into NHL points. By multiplying his scoring
rate in junior and the minors by certain translation factors - as determined by
 Rob Vollman - we can see how these rates should have developed in the NHL.

It seems that Petan is still performing under expectations. The stats peg him
as a 31-point player over an 82-game season, and at this pace, he should have
36 points in his NHL career, compared to the 21 points he has. He simply
hasn';t been the player Jets fans were hoping he would develop into, and while
he is not bad by any stretch - and as many have pointed out, he hasn';t always
had the most talented linemates - considering these advanced stats, the future
looks bleak for the winger.

So here is Kyle Connor and Nic Petan at the same age... 
Connors 3 most common linemates:
Wheeler
Scheifele
Laine

Petan:
Copp
thornburn
armia

But I keep hearing Petan got a fair shot. pic.twitter.com/pdxVbNJZdn

- not affiliated 🐺 (@Tony_MBHKY) June 19, 2018

Cap Crunch & Hard Decisions Should Force a Trade

When a team starts winning tough decisions have to be made, and that is where
Cheveldayoff finds himself heading into the 2018-19 season. The battle for the
 goaltending backup has been covered at length, and so has how the club should
handle its prospects.

The Jets depth chart shows that there are a few large barriers for Petan to
clear before becoming a full-time NHLer on the Jets roster. Sticking with the
bottom-six valuation indicated by his numbers, strong and talented players
stand in his way, with Adam Lowry and Andrew Copp pegged as the Jets'; third
and fourth line centres, as well as Mathieu Perrault, Marko Dano, and JC Lipon
on the left side.

Lowry and Copp both dwarf Petan physically, experientially and statistically -
both have played in excess of 200 NHL games and clear six feet tall - while
Perrault is a versatile veteran on a team-friendly deal, and both Dano and
Lipon are poised to fight for the final roster spot. Petan is, unfortunately,
the odd man out and will likely be unwilling to continue being paid the league
 minimum to toil in the minors. The answer for Petan is a change of scenery.

The best option would be to trade Petan and recoup some assets. Declan
Schroeder has pegged the centre-starved Montreal Canadiens as a prime target
and with their reported interest in the young-gun this offseason, a trade seems
 likely. The Habs already have smaller forwards like Jonathan Drouin and
Brendan Gallagher, so sticking Petan in their bottom-six makes sense.

However, only time will tell the story of Nic Petan';s place with the Winnipeg
Jets.

The post The Steady Decline of Jets'; Petan appeared first on The Hockey
Writers.

http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheHockeyWrite...
--- SBBSecho 3.06-Win32
 * Origin: TequilaMockingbird Online - Toms River, NJ (1:266/404)