In this two-part series looking at the Edmonton Oilers'; potential opening
night roster, Part Two assesses the forwards and what lines the club could run
out of the gate. If you haven';t read Part One, in which we took a deep dive
into the goaltending and defense pairings, you can do so here.Predicting Oilers
 Opening Night Roster (Vince Richard/THW)

To catch everyone up to speed, here';s what the Oilers'; goaltending and the
defense could be heading into October:

Goaltenders

Cam Talbot

Mikko Koskinen

Left Defense

Right Defense

Oscar KlefbomAdam Larsson

Darnell NurseMatt Benning

Kris RussellEvan Bouchard

Jakub Jerabek*

Now onto the forwards.Oilers'; Best Lines: Corsi-For Percentage (CF%)

If you incorporate advanced stats into finding the best possible lines for the
Oilers'; upcoming season, some of the results will surprise you. To consider
the Corsi-For percentage, you have to filter out the players that are no longer
 with the club. Patrick Maroon, Mike Cammalleri, and Mark Letestu factored into
 some of Edmonton';s more positive CF% lines in 2017-18.Related: A Make or
Break Year for Oilers, Chiarelli, and McLellan

Maroon was on the three top performing lines according to this stat last season
 (64.6, 57.1, and 56.6) while playing with Connor McDavid, Kailer Yamamoto,
Leon Draisaitl, Cammalleri, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. When you subtract Maroon,
Cammalleri, Letestu, and Iiro Pakarinen, you';re left with nine different line
variations used in 2017-18.Based on CF%, Oilers will miss Patrick Maroon (Amy
Irvin / THW)

 

Oilers'; Best Lines According to Corsi For Percentage (CF%)

CF%GPLeft WingCenterRight Wing

55.430Milan LucicConnor McDavidJesse Puljujarvi

55.340Milan LucicConnor McDavidLeon Draisaitl

53.021Jujhar KhairaLeon DraisaitlRyan Strome

52.826Milan LucicRyan StromeJesse Puljujarvi

52.613Drake CaggiulaLeon DraisaitlRyan Strome

51.714Milan LucicRyan Nugent-HopkinsRyan Strome

50.110Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavidTy Rattie

48.116Milan LucicRyan Nugent-HopkinsJesse Puljujarvi

47.37Drake CaggiulaLeon DraisaitlPontus Aberg

According to the above, the Oilers'; best line that remains from last year is
Milan Lucic, McDavid, and Jesse Puljujarvi. If you play those three together,
Jujhar Khaira, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Strome become the next best line. Most
fans will groan when they see Lucic';s name next to McDavid';s, and they should
 take it with a grain of salt.Related: Predicting Oilers 2018-19 Opening Night
Roster: Goalies & Defense

While Lucic has struggled to keep up with the Oilers captain';s speed, he did
have his best stint of the season alongside No. 97. Then again, is anyone
genuinely hoping the Oilers ice a second line that includes both Khaira and
Strome? Highly unlikely. So what other stats can we use to find the best
performing lines for Edmonton this upcoming season?Oilers'; Best Lines: PDO

We can take those same nine line combinations and run them through the PDO
marker. Comparing the two stats we know that the Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, and
Rattie trio (CF% of 50.1) that clicked during the final stretch of the season
likely overachieved (109.3), and that type of success might not be sustainable
over a full 82-game schedule.Related: 5 Predictions for Oilers 2018-19 Season

The best CF% line of Lucic, McDavid, and Puljujarvi held a PDO of 103.2, which
is slightly above the curve and they likely benefitted from some bounces that
went their way as well. On the flip side, Lucic, McDavid, and Draisaitl (CF% of
 55.3, PDO of 94.3) might';ve been the most snakebitten line the Oilers iced in
 2017-18. The trio';s possession stats were great but they didn';t get the
bounces.Milan Lucic (Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Oilers'; Best Lines According to PDO

PDOGPLeft WingCenter

Right Wing

109.310Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavidTy Rattie

103.230Milan LucicConnor McDavidJesse Puljujarvi

102.57Drake CaggiulaLeon DraisaitlPontus Aberg

101.216Milan LucicRyan Nugent-HopkinsJesse Puljujarvi

100.213Drake CaggiulaLeon DraisaitlRyan Strome

100.521Jujhar KhairaLeon DraisaitlRyan Strome

99.826Milan LucicRyan StromeJesse Puljujarvi

96.114Milan LucicRyan Nugent-HopkinsRyan Strome

94.340Milan LucicConnor McDavidLeon Draisaitl

Drake Caggiula, Draisaitl, and Pontus Aberg float close to that boundary (PDO
of 100.2), and again the Khaira, Draisaitl, Strome line looks like it';s right
where it';s supposed to be as well (100.5). Another takeaway is the number of
combinations in which Lucic appears. He played on five different line
combinations through the year while the club tried to spark him through his
second-half scoring drought.

We also need to consider one player that';s on the bubble who might factor into
 the club';s opening night plans: Kailer Yamamoto. He started last season with
McDavid and Maroon and the trio had a CF% of 57.8, and a PDO of 94.5. So
there';s plenty of combinations, but as we';re starting to go through this
exercise, maybe we need to apply some reality to this. We know who the Oilers';
 four centers will be but who are the best wingers for those centers?Oilers
Best Lines: The Eye Test

Analytics are nice to consider but the best test is the eye test. If you';ve
read my writing over the past few years, you';ll know I';m not much of a
numbers guy. I';m not throwing the numbers away but I won';t let them dictate
how I';d construct the Oilers'; roster for the upcoming season.Related: 5
Oilers Prospects To Watch in 2018-19

The building blocks (as mentioned above) are set down the middle: McDavid,
Draisaitl, Strome, Brodziak. You can substitute Draisaitl for Nugent-Hopkins
when needed but for now, let';s start Nugent-Hopkins on the wing which is where
 he ended the 2017-18 campaign. We';ll also pencil Nugent-Hopkins into the top
left side spot next to McDavid to start this exercise and build the rest of the
 roster around this. We';ll do the same with Zack Kassian, who';s the No. 4
right winger.Connor McDavid: The Ultimate Building Block (Andy Devlin/NHLI)

 

Building the Oilers 2018-19 Forward Lineup

Left WingCenterRight Wing

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavid???

???Leon Draisaitl???

???Ryan Strome???

???Kyle BrodziakZack Kassian

We';re essentially looking at six spots in the lineup that are up for grabs. We
 also need to add free-agent signee Tobias Rieder, as well as Scottie Upshall,
who';s on a professional tryout (PTO). Rieder, 25, is a nice addition to the
Oilers because of his ability to play top-nine minutes at five-on-five
(5-on-5). Looking at Rieder';s usage last year, he played 33 games (nearly 228
minutes at 5-on-5) alongside Derek Stepan.

He also played 10 games (over 72 minutes at 5-on5) alongside Jeff Carter with
the Los Angeles Kings. His style as a two-way forward with limited scoring
upside complimented both Stepan and Carter. Rieder scored 12 goals and 25
points in what was considered a down year. If you';re hoping for Rieder to go
back to being the 34-37-point player he was in the two previous years, you';ll
want him alongside a reliable scoring center.Tobias Rieder & Leon Draisaitl: A
Second-Line Match?

Draisaitl might be the one to unlock that scoring potential and he';s closer
than anyone else in the system to the type of player Rieder played with last
year. Rieder also has excellent breakaway speed, can play at different speeds,
and does a great job of finding time and space. Put that together, and we have
a dependable low-key addition that could complement Draisaitl';s game.

Draisaitl likes to slow things down when he enters the offensive zone and he
sees the ice well. Rieder';s abilities to think the game are right up there,
and the two built some chemistry playing together in international
competitions. Maybe there';s a fit here to explore with a player that plays
both wings.Leon Draisaitl (Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports)

Aside from playing alongside McDavid for stretches of the 2016-17 and 2017-18
season, Draisaitl and Lucic haven';t played a lot of games together with No. 29
 at centre. The Oilers want a player with a $6 million price tag to deliver
results so they should give Lucic a chance to redeem himself after a
challenging campaign.

If the goal is to utilize Lucic in a top-six role, it shouldn';t be alongside
McDavid and it should be with Draisaitl. Ideally, Lucic';s purpose on this line
 would be to win puck battles and create space and opportunities for Draisaitl
and his other linemate. He might not be able to keep up with McDavid which
limits his overall ability to produce, however, with Draisaitl, who plays the
game at varying speeds, there';s an opportunity worth exploring.

Building the Oilers 2018-19 Forward Lineup (Continued)

Left WingCenterRight Wing

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavid???

Milan LucicLeon DraisaitlTobias Rieder

???Ryan Strome???

???Kyle BrodziakZack Kassian

The possession stats aren';t terrible either. Lucic with Draisaitl isn';t as
bad of an idea as it sounds. There are four spots to fill with Aberg, Caggiula,
 Khaira, Puljujarvi, Rattie, Upshall, and Yamamoto in the mix.Oilers First-Line
 & A Balanced Lineup

Rattie is a bit of an unproven commodity despite having a strong 2017-18 season
 overall. The 25-year-old was excellent in the AHL (43 points in 53 games) and
has an excellent scoring touch at all levels, except the NHL. His nine points
in 14 games were the best stretch of his career since being drafted 32nd
overall in 2011. He was a scoring sensation in junior with the WHL';s Portland
Winterhawks but his glory days are over.

The NHL focuses on 'what have you done for me lately?'; Rattie has turned a
corner as a player. It';s likely that Chiarelli and McLellan will do everything
 in their power to set Rattie up for success by giving him the opportunity in
training camp to cement his place as the No. 1 right winger at 5v5.Ty Rattie
(Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports)

That means that at 5-on-5 the club is left to decide between Puljujarvi and
Yamamoto for that No. 3 right wing spot. It';s easy to go with Puljujarvi, who
is due for a breakout year in 2018-19. With some increased power-play time, the
 fourth overall pick from 2016 could score 20-plus goals this season. For
Yamamoto, a glorious developmental opportunity awaits with the Bakersfield
Condors where he can play top-line minutes in all situations.Related: Edmonton
Oilers Top 10 Prospects

Testing Yamamoto against the AHL';s top competition and defense pairings would,
 ideally, yield the Oilers a more NHL-ready pro when he';s recalled. Khaira is
by far the Oilers'; best checker and will be able to transition into the
top-nine in due time. Having him alongside Brodziak and Kassian gives Edmonton
one of the better fourth lines in the NHL.

Left WingCenterRight Wing

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavidTy Rattie

Milan LucicLeon DraisaitlTobias Rieder

Drake CaggiulaRyan StromeJesse Puljujarvi

Jujhar KhairaKyle BrodziakZack Kassian

Pontus Aberg*

Scottie Upshall*

In a roundabout way, that leaves one spot on the roster to decide; the No. 3
left wing. That spot comes down to Aberg, Caggiula, and Upshall. Aberg was
quickly in the doghouse after coming over in a trade with the Nashville
Predators and will hopefully get a clean slate when camp opens. Caggiula just
got a $1.5 million-per-year extension. Upshall is at camp on a PTO.

As camp opens, Aberg is likely on the outside as the club';s 13th forward. Then
 again, Upshall has been an adept penalty-killer and was one of the St. Louis
Blues'; most utilized penalty killers last season alongside Kyle Brodziak. With
 the Oilers looking to improve their PK, it';s worth keeping Upshall
around.Final Oilers Opening Night Roster: Review

When the season starts, we';ll review this lineup prediction and see how it
compares to the Oilers'; lineup for the first game of the season. With two
goaltenders and seven defenders, they need 14 forwards to complete their 23-man
 roster.

This is my prediction of who the Oilers will ice on opening night:

Goaltenders

Cam Talbot

Mikko Koskinen

Left Defense

Right Defense

Oscar KlefbomAdam Larsson

Darnell NurseMatt Benning

Kris RussellEvan Bouchard

Jakub Jerabek*

Left WingCenterRight Wing

Ryan Nugent-HopkinsConnor McDavidTy Rattie

Milan LucicLeon DraisaitlTobias Rieder

Drake CaggiulaRyan StromeJesse Puljujarvi

Jujhar KhairaKyle BrodziakZack Kassian

Pontus Aberg*

Scottie Upshall*

Do you agree with this roster? Are there any changes you';d make? Who would you
 plug in and plug out? Let us know in the comment section below.

The post Predicting Oilers'; 2018-19 Opening Night Roster: Forwards appeared
first on The Hockey Writers.

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