Ray Shero';s time as the Pittsburgh Penguins general manager is often seen as a
 failure. After all, he had both Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin throughout
their early and mid-20s and only managed to win one Stanley Cup out of it.

He was often praised for the trades he made, most notably acquiring a trio of
wingers for essentially next to nothing during his tenure. First, it was Marian
 Hossa in 2008, then James Neal in 2011 and finally Jerome Iginla in 2013. But
the biggest knock on Shero has come from his draft day history, as only two of
his first round picks (Jordan Staal in 2006 and Olli Määttä in 2012) have
made a real impact at the NHL level. Despite this, has his draft day history
been as bad as it';s made out to be?Shero Set up the Future in Net

With a young Marc-Andre Fleury patrolling the crease, Shero';s main focus
wasn';t finding a goalie, as only four of his 50 draft picks during his tenure
were goalies. His first two, Chad Johnson (2006 fifth round) and Alexandar
Pechurskiy (2008 fifth round) didn';t work out, but he couldn';t have done any
better with his last two, as they turned out to be Matt Murray and Tristan
Jarry.2012 third-round pick Matt Murray has become the future of the Penguins
crease. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The Penguins used the 83rd pick in 2012 to take Murray from the Sault Ste.
Marie Greyhounds of the OHL and just four years later, he stormed onto the
scene and helped lead the Penguins to their first Stanley Cup since 2009.

It was initially thought Murray may need three or four seasons after making
the jump from amateur hockey before he was close to ready for NHL action, but
he looked ready the second he jumped into the professional level during the
2014-15 season, as he posted a 25-10-3 record with a .941 save percentage (SV%)
 and 1.58 goals against average (GAA) along with 12 shutouts in 40 games for
the Wilkes-Barre Scranton of the AHL.

He made his NHL debut in December of 2015 and hasn';t looked back since,
posting a 68-28-8 record with a .917 SV% and 2.58 GAA with six shutouts in 111
NHL games. He';s been even better in the playoffs, posting a 28-15 record in 44
 games (43 starts) with a .923 SV% and 2.08 GAA and six shutouts while helping
to lead the Penguins to consecutive Stanley Cups in both 2016 and 2017. After
the 2015-16 season, the Penguins were quick and smart to sign Murray to a
three-year, $11.25 million contract. At just 24 years old, Murray has the
chance to defend the Penguins net for another 15 years.Drafted 44th overall in
2013, Tristan Jarry has shown flashes of what made him a top prospect. (Charles
 LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

The third-ranked goalie in his draft class by NHL Central Scouting, Jarry
hasn';t developed as quickly as Murray or had the NHL success of his
counterpart. He may actually possess the higher ceiling between the two and has
 shown he has the talent to be a starter. Maybe he doesn';t get that chance in
Pittsburgh because of Murray, but he';s eventually going to be a starter for
someone.

After posting a .936 SV% and 1.61 GAA in 27 games during his draft year in
2012-13 with the Edmonton Oil Kings of the WHL, the Penguins made him the 44th
pick of the 2013 draft. Following up on his draft year, Jarry had a .925 SV%
in the 2014 WHL playoffs before leading the Oil Kings to a Memorial Cup victory
 a month later. His pro debut in 2015-16 didn';t go as planned, with a .905 SV%
 in 33 games with Wilkes-Barre, but he took steps forward in 2016-17, putting
up a .925 SV% in the AHL before making his NHL debut in the Penguins'; final
game of the season.

Last season, the 23-year-old appeared in 26 games for the Penguins and posted a
 .908 SV% with a 2.77 GAA. Despite those numbers, Jarry had more ups than downs
 and showcased the athleticism, lateral movements and talent that made him such
 a highly regarded prospect. It';s likely he';ll spend the upcoming season in
the AHL in order to get as much game action as possible, but he could be the
full-time backup by 2019-20. With a cheap cap hit ($675,000) for the next two
seasons, the cap-strapped Penguins would have just $4.4 million invested in two
 NHL starting caliber goalies.The 2012 Draft Changed the Blue Line

During the 2012 draft, Shero made two moves in the span of about 90 minutes
whose benefits have been reaped by the present-day Penguins defensive core. The
 first one was a trade, where the team moved away from its three-center
philosophy by trading Jordan Staal (who found out about the trade on his
wedding day) to the Carolina Hurricanes for the eighth overall pick (Derrick
Pouliot), Brandon Sutter and defensive prospect Brian Dumoulin.Acquired on
Draft Day in 2012, Brian Dumoulin has become a top pairing defenseman in
Pittsburgh. (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

The biggest piece of the deal was supposed to be the pick used to select
Pouliot, but of course, things don';t always work out. The biggest name from
that deal ended up being Dumoulin. After playing just 14 games with the
Penguins between 2013-14 and 2014-15, Dumoulin burst onto the scene for the
Penguins in 2015-16, playing a shutdown role and elevating himself up to the
first pair with Kris Letang, a pairing which has quietly become one of the best
 in the league over the last three seasons.

Chart from @ChartingHockey 

Dumoulin also played an integral role in the Penguins consecutive
championships, especially in 2017, sliding in as the defacto number one
defenseman following Letang';s neck surgery. All this despite reportedly
breaking and re-breaking his hand multiple times during the run. His efforts
earned him a six-year, $24.6 million contract which will keep him in Pittsburgh
 until 2023. His lack of offense played a role in the lower cap number, but his
 defensive stability is invaluable to the Penguins. THW';s Julie Stumbaugh
wrote about why re-signing Dumoulin made sense despite the lack of offensive
output.

The 2017 Cup is the first time the Penguins have won in the modern era without
 Letang. And while doing it, they leaned on Dumoulin. That serves as
an indication of how important Dumoulin's role with the Penguins has become.

The second move of the night was the selection of Finnish defenseman Olli
Määttä with the 22nd overall pick. Although he turned just 24-years-old a
few weeks ago, he';s the longest-tenured Penguin not named Crosby, Malkin or
Letang.Olli Määttä has become a core piece of the Penguins defense. (Amy
Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Määttä made the Penguins 2013-14 opening night roster as a 19-year-old.
Despite his youth, he played like a 10-year veteran and was an integral part of
 the blue line from the get-go, averaging 18 and a half minutes a game. He
recorded 29 points in 78 games and finished fifth in Calder Voting. His rookie
performance proved vital as Letang struggled with injuries and a stroke.

The 2014-15 season was not kind to Määttä, as he limited to just 20 games,
and was diagnosed with a cancerous tumour on his thyroid, the mumps and
eventually suffered a season-ending shoulder injury in January. Määttä was
at full strength for 2015-16 but struggled when he was on the ice, routinely
turning the puck over and having defensive mishaps. Feeling it was just a down
year, the team signed him to a six-year, $24.5 million extension in February of
 2016.

It seems to have been a good gamble by the front office over the last two
seasons, as Määttä and Justin Schultz have become a consistent second pair
for the Penguins and played a huge role in the second of the teams back-to-back
 Stanley Cups. As he further distances himself from injuries he dealt with
early on in his career, he';s begun to play better. He showed it in 2017-18, as
 he was arguably the teams most consistent defenseman.

 

Chart from @ChartingHockey

Kris LetangΓÇÿs season-long performance in his return from neck surgery didn't
inspire a ton of confidence, and Schultz suffered a year-to-year dip in points
per game (from 0.65 in 2016-17 to 0.43) and relative shot share (from plus-1.9
percent to minus-2.1). Those guys aren't without value, but it's not a stretch
to call Dumoulin and Määttä the team's two most reliable defenders heading
into 2018-19- Matt Gajtka, Pittsburgh Hockey Now

Making one move in a season which reshapes a team';s defensive core is
impressive, but two in a single day is unheard of.Two Key Third-Round Forwards

Finding talented, young offensive players has been a challenge for the Penguins
 during the era of Crosby and Malkin. It was thought first rounders Angelo
Esposito (20th overall, 2007) and Beau Bennett (20th overall, 2010) would be
key cogs in the Penguins lineup for years, but neither were. Esposito never
played a game for the Penguins, as he was dealt to Atlanta in the Hossa deal.
Bennett had the looks of a future member of the Penguins core, but his
inability to stay healthy ultimately derailed that.

Enter Bryan Rust and Jake Guentzel, two third-round picks made by Shero who';ve
 come up and become important pieces of the current day Penguins.Bryan Rust
(17) and Jake Guentzel (59) have become two of the Penguins most important
forwards.  (Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports)

Rust, the 80th overall selection in 2010, has quietly become one of the
Penguins best all-around forwards in short order. After spending four seasons
at Notre Dame, the winger made the jump to professional hockey in 2014-15 with
Wilkes-Barre and even played 14 games at the NHL level that year. However, he
didn';t earn a full-time spot with the big club until midway through the
2015-16 season.

Rust made a name for himself during Game 7 of the 2016 Eastern Conference Final
 as he scored both of the Penguins'; goals in the 2-1 victory over the Tampa
Bay Lightning. Without Rust';s heroics, it';s likely the team doesn';t win the
Stanley Cup. Rust carried that momentum into the 2016-17 season, recording 28
points in 57 games and adding to his playoff resume with the clinching goal
during the Penguins'; 2-0 victory in Game 7 of the second round against the
Washington Capitals.

Although last season, Rust established himself as one of the Penguins most
valuable forwards. In 69 games, he recorded 38 points while flashing his
ability to play at all situations and on any line. His continued development
and performance earned him a three-year, $14 million extension, which could
turn out to be a bargain.

Chart by @ChartingHockey

Guentzel was selected 77th overall in 2013, a pick the Penguins acquired in the
 Brenden Morrow trade during the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. Like Rust,
Guentzel went the college route, spending three seasons at the University of
Nebraska-Omaha. He only needed 42 games in the AHL during his first
professional season to make the jump to the NHL and he impressed, as he
recorded 33 points in 40 games. He was even better in the playoffs, putting up
one of the best performances by a rookie in recent memory with 13 goals and 21
points in 25 games, helping lead the Penguins to a Stanley Cup.

2017-18 saw Guentzel have some regular season up and downs, but he played all
82 games and scored 22 goals and 48 points in his first full season. His
playoff run managed to be even better this time, as Guentzel recorded 21 points
 in 12 games, including a four-goal effort in Game 6 of the Penguins
first-round victory over the Philadelphia Flyers. At one point, he and Crosby
were the only two players producing for the team.

It';s easy to stop at his offensive production, but his carefulness with the
puck is another important part of his game. He turned the puck over 18 times
last season, second-fewest among Penguins who played over 700 minutes and his
36 takeaways was fifth on the team. The Penguins also controlled 53.6 percent
of shot attempts with Guentzel on the ice as well.

Here';s a look at how Guentzel and Rust have performed over the last two
seasons and along with how they contributed offensively last season.

Chart by @CJTDevil, Data by @ShutdownLine 

 

Chart by @ChartingHockey, Data by @loserpoints

Unlike Rust, though, Guentzel isn';t locked up past the 2018-19 season and the
23-year-old is going to get paid when the time comes, writes our Greg
Thornberry.

There is no reason to believe that he will not reach the 30-40 goal range,
which puts him in a much higher tax bracket than he would have been if general
manager Jim Rutherford had locked him up prior to the start of the season -
which could still happen but is unlikely.

Like most general managers, Shero had his share of draft misses and he covered
those up by trading those prospects and picks, which delayed the struggles seen
 in 2013-14 and 2014-15. Make no mistake, Jim Rutherford has modelled this team
 and has rightfully earned the credit he';s been given. Although in recent
years, the draft day moves made by Shero in the back half of his tenure have
begun to show its results, and he deserves credit for it as well.

The post Penguins Seeing Results of Shero';s Draft Day Moves appeared first on
The Hockey Writers.

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