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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   Make or Break Year for Oilers, Chiarelli   September 5, 2018
 10:20 AM *  

The Edmonton Oilers will be opening training camp soon ahead of their 40th
anniversary season. This is going to be a pivotal year for the franchise as
they look to get back into the playoffs rather than miss them for the 12th time
 in 13 years. Another misstep in 2018-19 could be the straw that breaks the
camel';s back and sends a ripple effect throughout the roster and front office.

It goes without saying that general manager Peter Chiarelli and head coach Todd
 McLellan are both on the hot seat. Both are under immense pressure within the
market to deliver results. This is a team that was one win away from the
Western Conference Final in May 2017. Fast forward a year, and Edmonton missed
the playoffs by 17 points.

So part of this is a question of what team are the Oilers closer to; the team
that was one win away, or the non-playoff pretender? For Chiarelli, McLellan,
CEO and vice-chair Bob Nicholson, and owner Daryl Katz, the hope is the former
rather than the latter. There';s a lot of work that went into righting the ship
 this summer. A new coaching staff was constructed around McLellan. Mikko
Koskinen was signed to a lucrative deal for a backup.Related - Predicting
Oilers Opening Night Roster: Goalies & Defense

The hope and prayer is that the combination of a bounce-back year from Cam
Talbot and a steady backup in Koskinen gives Edmonton 82 games of solid
goaltending, something they didn';t have in 2017-18. On defense, the team
snagged a stud prospect in Evan Bouchard, and he will challenge for a job
whether some fans like it or not.Peter Chiarelli (Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY
Sports)

Last year when Andrej Sekera went down, Chiarelli banked on his internal group
to cover his bet. It didn';t work out as expected, and when faced with the same
 issue this summer, Chiarelli went out and signed Jakub Jerabek to an NHL deal,
 and Jason Garrison to a professional tryout (PTO). They';ll compete with Kevin
 Gravel (another free agent signing), and Keegan Lowe for the No. 6-7 jobs in
camp.Related: Oilers Options to Replace Andrej Sekera

Upfront the club didn';t sign a bonafide top-six scoring option. Instead,
Chiarelli is doubling down his bets (again) in hopes that players on
cost-effective deals provide results. Ty Rattie and Jesse Puljujarvi are the
two perched atop the right wing depth chart, with Kailer Yamamoto circling the
wagons. If one or two of them can score 20-plus goals in 2018-19, it';ll get
the club that much closer to a playoff position.Peter Chiarelli: Oilers GM
Doubling Down on His Bets

Still, Chiarelli is on the hot seat as the season opens, at least with the fans
 in the market. He started his time in Edmonton off with a bang being in the
enviable position of being the architect behind a squad built around Connor
McDavid. However, it hasn';t been as easy as it sounds. The club has made the
playoffs just once during Chiarelli';s time behind the reigns.Related: 5
Predictions for Oilers 2018-19 Season

If the club falters for the third time in four years, you can bet the
higher-ups within the organization might serve him his walking
papers. There';s plenty of good that';s happened under Chiarelli';s watch
though. The prospect pipeline might not be flourishing, but it';s more
representative of an NHL club';s prospect pool than it was in years prior.
Kailer Yamamoto, Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner, Ethan Bear, and Tyler Benson
give plenty of hope for the future.Peter Chiarelli (Dave Sandford/NHLI via
Getty Images)

In the meantime, Chiarelli has strengthened Edmonton';s depth down the middle,
with Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Strome, and Kyle Brodziak all suiting up behind No.
97. Aside from that, Chiarelli has a lot of unanswered questions around the
rest of the roster. Will Cam Talbot bounce back? Is Mikko Koskinen a true
NHL-caliber backup that can potentially push Talbot? Can Darnell Nurse take
another step forward?Related: 5 Oilers Prospects to Watch in 2018-19

Will Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson rebound from their setbacks in 2017-18? How
 about the scoring depth on the wings? Is that mishmash of hopeful dreams going
 to equal results come puck drop? It';s a precarious situation, and part of
the blame has been Chiarelli';s mismanagement of the Oilers total salary cap
situation. It led to the club trading out favorites like Taylor Hall and Jordan
 Eberle.

It';s led to fans souring on Milan Lucic who arguably had the worst year of his
 career last season. To fill all the gaps in between, Chiarelli has had to
search through bargain bins trying to shore up certain spots on his roster.
Part of the onus is on the players to deliver results, but a large part of that
 onus is on the man constructing that roster. There';s a lot of hope that this,
 this, and that happens with this roster versus having some certainty.Todd
Mclellan: Searching for Answers

Where Chiarelli has held blame for the club';s failures, so has McLellan. Some
resounding faith from the organization has him back this season with a whole
new coaching staff this year. Glen Gulutzan, Trent Yawney, and Manny Viveiros
were hired this summer in varying capacities to assist McLellan. The real
question is what is the real problem here. Is it McLellan';s poor bench
management, or is this a case a general manager handcuffing his coach and not
giving him the right horses to stay in the race?Related: Edmonton Oilers Top 10
 Prospects

The first 20 games of this season will be pivotal in the McLellan narrative. If
 he falters and the Oilers are on the lesser side of a .500 winning percentage
through those first 20 games, is the hot water under his seat going to reach a
boiling point? It';s clear Edmonton';s special teams need some work. The hiring
 of Yawney should ideally help the penalty kill (PK), whereas Viveiros'; hiring
 should do the same for the power play.Todd McLellan (Amy Irvin / The Hockey
Writers)

In five years with the Anaheim Ducks, they had the second-best PK at
83.7%. They had two different head coaches, but Yawney was a constant while
overseeing the PK. Viveiros held the title for the best PP in the WHL last
season at 29.7% with the Swift Current Broncos. On paper, the Oilers found two
of the top candidates out there to correct the problems. Now, will we see
tangible results?Related: The Oilers New Coaching Staff

In the end, it';s all about what McLellan does, how much he leans on his new
coaching staff, and how much he';s willing the bend to some of these new
visions. It';s McLellan';s bench at the end of the day, and he';ll do what he
feels is right. It';s predominantly taken an average of 93.2 points to get into
 the playoffs over the past five years. With that math, McLellan needs to find
a way to make up a difference of 15 points or more to get his club back into
the playoffs.

If he can';t carry that pace through the year, especially if they once again
stumble out the gate, the club might have to go in another direction behind the
 bench. Matter of factly, if this club doesn';t find themselves in the playoffs
 this spring; both Chiarelli and McLellan will likely be seeking employment
elsewhere.

The post Make or Break Year for Oilers, Chiarelli & McLellan appeared first on
The Hockey Writers.

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