For the last few summers, the Dallas Stars have become known for making a big
splash. Whether it';s from acquiring new players through trade or free agency,
a change in coaching staff or front office, or drafting a generational talent,
the team';s exciting offseasons have made up for the lack of playoff hockey.
But however quiet or busy the offseason is for the Stars, the question remains
the same each and every year: Is the team better?

For Dallas, it';s been a decade of doubt. The glaring issue is, the Stars have
enjoyed only two playoff appearances in the last 10 years. For a squad that';s
 bursting at the seams with young talented players like Tyler Seguin, Jamie
Benn, and John Klingberg, their playoff drought is shocking. They are close
though.

Season after season, the Stars have come up just short - a couple more wins, a
few one-goal games shy of postseason play, an injury or two from playoff glory.
 But those are excuses. In sports, it';s not about making excuses - every coach
 will tell you that. It';s about recognizing your flaws and improving. But the
adage doesn';t only apply to players, NHL general managers must do the same.

Stars GM Jim Nill has become notorious for making big moves offseason after
playoff-less offseason. From securing Seguin, signing Jason Spezza, or bringing
 in Alexander Radulov, Nill has a knack for making a splash. But after
back-to-back quiet postseasons and only two appearances during his tenure, the
sixth-year GM';s seat is getting warm.

This offseason, Nill has been relatively quiet, opting to sign depth rather
than make a big wave (yet), though the team has been through the rumor mill
with some big-name players. With the start of training camp just a few weeks
away, the question still remains: Is Dallas a playoff team now? The answer
is no. For your pessimistic reading pleasure, I present to you four reasons
why the Stars will again fail to make the playoffs.Disaster in Dallas Depth

The biggest question on every Stars fans'; mind is, where is the secondary
scoring? Peruse the Stars'; Twitter feed and you';ll read an armada of armchair
 GMs talking about the lack of depth. No seriously, go take a peek. But
they';re not wrong. There';s a pretty significant disparity down the Stars';
stats sheet.

Dallas has a dominant top line trio. Unfortunately, the other three lines are
not bearing their fair share of the weight. Seguin (40 goals), Benn (36), and
Radulov (27) were the top three goal and point-scorers for the Stars last
season, accounting for 44.5 percent of the team';s 231 goals. A lower number
would indicate more depth because, in theory, the scoring would be split
evenly between four lines.

Ideally, each line would record roughly 25 percent of the team';s share of
goals. A top line that is scoring almost half of their team';s total is an
overworked one. To put it in perspective, the lowly Buffalo Sabres'; top three
 goal-scorers scored 37.4 percent (74 of 198) of the team';s goals. Even the
Ottawa Senators had more depth, with their top three factoring in on 31 percent
 (68 of 219) of the Sens'; goals.The 32-year-old Blake Comeau recorded 13 goals
 for the young Colorado Avalanche last season, good for eighth on the team.
(Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

What has fans concerned is the lack of discernible depth players being added to
 the roster this offseason. Aside from the return of Valeri Nichushkin and the
addition of aging winger Blake Comeau, the 2018-19 forward group is relatively
the same.

"Dallas has an outstanding No. 1 line with Benn, Seguin, and Radulov, some
great pieces on the back end as well and a great goaltender, so if I am able to
 add some depth to their lineup and create some secondary scoring that will
take some of the burden off the top line, I think all the teams in the NHL that
 are successful have a lot of depth and contributions from different guys."
-Blake Comeau

While Comeau is a serviceable forward who won';t hurt the Stars, he';s also not
 the only answer to the secondary scoring issues. Nichushkin will also need to
prove himself after a couple of up-and-down seasons in Dallas, in which he only
 scored 23 goals in 166 games. Perhaps new head coach Jim Montgomery';s
strategy of "letting the horses run" will help spark the Stars'; lethargic
offense. But without any depth additions, Montgomery';s new, unproven system is
 really their only hope.Slumping Spezza and Secondary Scoring

I took to Twitter to ask Stars fans some of their reasons for concern, simply
asking, why do you feel the Stars will miss the playoffs? The responses I
received were similar to the troubles I';ve noticed. Let';s just say, Jason
Spezza';s name came up many times.

They miss is if Spezza is not revived, and none of the Nill prospects due
(Shore, Dickinson, Smith, Ritchie) take a meaningful step toward being NHL
contributors.  Also injuries that remain to big cap hits like Methot and
Hanzal.

- DrakeUnited (@drakeunited) August 17, 2018

And...

2nd line is too weak is the only problem in my eyes. If the 2nd line is
Janmark-Spezza-Nichushkin as expected, then there's too many questions like can
 spezza rebound, and can Janmark or Nichushkin score 20. We need someone on
there who will put up 50+ points or 25+ goals

- FakMeUp (@FakMeUp12) August 16, 2018

Yes, the second line was mediocre last season. Radek Faksa';s 17 goals were
about as good as it got on the second line. But most of the weight of the
second line';s slump falls on the shoulders of its biggest disappointment:
Spezza. Yes, the $7.5-million center has been a bust but it';s not all his
fault. My Twitter friend above is really speaking about the lack of secondary
scoring in the lineup.

Here';s the problem. The Stars led the NHL with 522 goals between the 2014-15
and 2015-16 seasons. Over the past two seasons, however, they have dropped to
17th with 453 goals. While being middle of the pack is not terrible, it';s a
pretty hefty drop after the previous two seasons; and unsurprisingly, the lack
of goals scored during that span correlated with missing the postseason.

Interestingly, there is also a correlation between Spezza';s slump and how well
 the team does. When Spezza is on his game, his teams rarely lose. When he
records at least 60 points in a season, his team has only missed the playoffs
three times in his 15-year career, the 2008-09 and 2013-14 seasons, both with
the Ottawa Senators, and the 2014-15 campaign, his first as a Star.Jason Spezza
 was a healthy scratch for the first time in his career last season. (Photo
by Andy Martin Jr).

During the 2015-16 season, Spezza scored 33 goals and 63 points in 75 games.
The result: the Stars had their first 50-win season in a decade and their best
finish in points (109) since the 2005-06 season. Last season was by far
Spezza';s worst, at least statistically, excluding his 33-game rookie year in
Ottawa (seven goals, 14 assists). He managed only eight goals and 18 helpers
in 78 games and was benched for the first time in his career; though it only
lasted one game before the aging center came back with a bang, notching two
goals in his return. That';s what the Stars need more of.

If Spezza can record 30 goals and 60 points - which is certainly not too much
to ask from your second-line, $7.5-million center - the Stars have a very good
chance of making the postseason. But if last season was any indication that he
may be nearing the end of his career, it';ll be another tough season for the
Stars.Poor Power Play

What should be a strength for the Stars has been one of its most glaring
weaknesses over the past few seasons. With Seguin, Benn, Radulov, Klingberg and
 Spezza, Dallas should be scoring on just about every power play. The problem
is they are not. Last season, their power play ranked 19th in the league with a
 19.3 percent success rate. Believe it or not, that was a slight improvement
from the season before. During the 2016-17 campaign, they ranked 20th with a
lowly 17.9 percent conversion rate.

The top line scored 63.8 percent of the team';s power-play goals. Ideally,
you';d like to see more of a 50-50 split between the two units (see "Disaster
at Depth". Don';t get me wrong, having the 19th-ranked man advantage isn';t
the worst, but there';s plenty of room for improvement.

Of the 16 playoff teams last season, only the Anaheim Ducks had a worse power
play (23rd) than the Stars. It';s a similar story for the 2016-17 season. Only
two playoff teams, the Senators (23rd) and San Jose Sharks (25th) had worse
power plays than the Stars and made the postseason. The point is, there';s a
correlation between strong power-play units and the team';s ability to make the
 playoffs.Tyler Seguin led the Stars in power-play goals (14) and points (25)
last season. (Photo by Andy Martin Jr)

While we';re at it, the Stars aren';t great at protecting the puck on the man
advantage either. Dallas has allowed an NHL-high 36 short-handed goals over
the last three seasons. They are the only team to allow 10 or more per season
in each of the last three years. Yikes. For the Stars to be a successful team,
 they will need to cash in on the power play. Last season, Jim Montgomery';s
Denver Pioneers'; power play ranked 13th out of 60 teams in DI hockey, so
perhaps there is some hope for this season.Mediocre Netminding

When the Stars signed Ben Bishop to a six-year, $29.5 million contract last
summer, the expectation was that Dallas was getting an elite NHL goaltender.
While it';s unfair to grade a goalie on one season, that is the only data there
 is for Bishop in Dallas. The good news is Bishop wasn';t too bad. The bad news
 is, his knees were.

The 31-year-old netminder was solid in his first year as a Star with a 26-17-5
record, five shutouts, a .916 save percentage and a 2.49 goals-against average.
 The issue was the knee injuries he sustained toward the end of the season. In
early March, the Stars were in the thick of the playoff race but a left knee
injury sidelined Bishop for five games and, in his second game back after the
first injury, he tweaked his patella again and missed the rest of the season,
resulting in an eight-game losing streak down the stretch and a missed
opportunity for postseason play.For the Stars to make the playoffs, they';ll
need Bishop to return to the prime form we saw in his days with the Tampa Bay
Lightning. (Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports)

The unfortunate reality about knee injuries is the likelihood of re-injury.
This is one of the many reasons why having a capable backup goaltender is a
must in the NHL. And unfortunately for the Stars, Kari Lehtonen wasn';t cutting
 it anymore. After nearly a decade in Dallas, Lehtonen was excellent at times
but overall was just a serviceable backup, and mediocrity won';t win you a
Stanley Cup. After filling in for the injured Bishop at the end of the season
and posting a 4-6 record, Lehtonen sealed his free agency fate and played his
last game as a Star.

One of the biggest priorities for Nill this offseason was getting a capable
backup goaltender. Enter Anton Khudobin. Despite being a bit older than the
Stars'; no. 1 netminder, Khudobin stands to be a solid upgrade. Last year with
the Bruins, Khudobin posted a 16-6-7 record with a .913 save percentage and a
2.56 goals-against average, similar stats to Bishop.

The hope is the journeyman goalie will provide the depth in net that the Stars
have dearly missed for the past few seasons. If Bishop can stay healthy, he';s
an elite NHL netminder. If Khudobin can provide a bit of relief, the Stars may
have a nice tandem in net.Pessimism Prospers in Big D

After a decade of mediocrity in Big D, there still isn';t much potential for
Dallas to make the playoffs. The Stars are quickly fading and little has been
done about it. Hiring a new and unproven head coach and failing to address the
 secondary scoring problems or the team';s disastrous depth isn';t exactly the
offseason moves that Stanley Cup champions make.

But hey, maybe it';ll all work out. However, a much improved Central Division
will be even tougher to fight through this season.  Another losing season
would spell disaster in Big D. Making the playoffs will be a tall task for this
 young Stars team. An offseason with very little reason for optimism has fans a
 little on edge heading into October. For now, we wait. Dallas has 82 games
they';ll need to fight through. Let';s just hope there are more than that.

The post The Dallas Stars Won';t Make the Playoffs appeared first on The Hockey
 Writers.

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