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Message   The Hockey Writers    All   Panthers' Reimer: Reality Check   August 6, 2018
 9:43 AM *  

Perhaps no player on the Florida Panthers is more polarising than goaltender
James Reimer.

To some, he's adored as an affable netminder with an endearingly awkward,
almost robotic style that, though generally effective, also provides endless
entertainment value.

To others, he's the expensive, inconsistent and overall underperforming
puckstopper who isn't benefitting the Panthers now, and who will take playing
time away from younger, cheaper options in the Cats' system during the final
three years of his deal.

But how do the emotional reactions Reimer elicits stand up to objective
analysis?Reimer's Vital Statistics Above Average

Over the past three seasons, Reimer has accumulated 57 wins in 118 starts, for
an average of 39 starts and 19 wins each year.

Neither the workload nor winning percentage are particularly impressive, to be
sure, though it's important to note Reimer has been part of platoon systems in
both Toronto and Florida, and was decidedly the backup to Martin Jones on the
Stanley Cup Final-bound San Jose Sharks after being dealt at the 2016 trade
deadline.

Additionally, other than the Sharks, Reimer's never played for a particularly
good team, tending goal for the last-place Maple Leafs most of 2015-16, and the
 mostly mediocre Panthers the past two seasons.

Throw in some bad injury luck, and Reimer's limited workload and lack of wins
are easily explained.As he was on the Maple Leafs, Reimer';s part of a platoon
system with the Panthers, this time with future Hall of Famer Roberto Luongo.
(Robert Mayer / USA TODAY Sports)

What's more important is his .918 save percentage over the past three years,
which is tied for eighth-best (17th of 87 overall) in the National Hockey
League amongst goalies with 600 (approximately 10 complete games) or more
minutes played during that time. A .918 SV% is the same as such puckstopping
luminaries as 2018 Stanley Cup champion Braden Holtby, 2018 Vezina Trophy
winner Pekka Rinne and Maple Leafs workhorse Frederik Andersen. Not bad company
 for the 30-year-old Reimer.

For good measure, Reimer's 10 shutouts over that period represent the
sixth-highest total in the league.

By traditional measures, then, Reimer is a decidedly above-average goaltender,
even though he's generally played on teams that have been middling, at
best.Reimer's Advanced Statistics Support Value

Digging deeper, Reimer ranks 20th of 59 in save percentage amongst NHL
goaltenders that have faced 10 or more shootout shots since the beginning of
2015-16, posting a .729 SV%. That's certainly decent enough; for comparison,
batterymate Roberto Luongo is tied for 38th, at .667.

Interestingly, Reimer's faced the seventh-most shootout attempts over that span
 (59), despite his comparative lack of playing time.

Next, as mentioned, Reimer is tied for the eighth-highest save percentage
amongst the 87 NHL goaltenders who've played 600-plus minutes over the past
three campaigns. Breaking it down, Reimer's .927 SV% at even strength is the
fifth-best mark (he ranks 16th overall). That said, his ranking is 30th when it
 comes to the penalty kill (.875 SV%) - still above the median, but decidedly
more average.

In terms of shot quality, Reimer ranks 34th (appropriate) of 87 in high-danger
situations (.798 SV%), is tied for 30th in medium-danger save percentage (.922)
 and is 45th in low-danger save percentage (.977). Oddly then, Reimer seems to
be comparatively better in high-risk situations.Oddly, Reimer seems to perform
better in higher-risk situations - or worse in lower-risk ones, depending on
your perspective. (Jasen Vinlove / USA TODAY Sports)

Whatever your feelings about Reimer, what's abundantly clear is that,
statistically, he's a league-average goaltender at the very least, with
evidence indicating he's somewhat above average.Reimer's Quirks: Endearing or
Irritating?

But that's not to say he's without some pretty noticeable faults.

For one thing, I wouldn't know how to go about quantifying it, but, having
watched Reimer closely throughout his time in Toronto and now in South Florida,
 he seems to play better when given the starting role. Conversely, he sometimes
 struggles to establish rhythm when played in spot duty, whether as a backup or
 in platoon situations.Slow Starts Plague Reimer

As for quantifiable failings, one of the more frustrating parts of Reimer's
game is his tendency to start the season slowly.

For example, in his first 18 starts in 2017-18, Reimer won only six times, with
 an .897 SV% and zero shutouts. From Dec. 19 onwards, Reimer won 16 of 24
starts, posting a .924 SV% and four shutouts. Granted, early on in the year,
the team in front of him was struggling to adjust to the system of first-year
head coach Bob Boughner, but it's not as though Reimer was anywhere near his
best.



Or, how about 2016-17, when Reimer won only seven times in 17 starts to start
his Panthers career, with a .913 SV% and no shutouts, before winning 11 of his
last 22, posting a .925 SV% and three shutouts in the process. Again, there
were extenuating circumstances, with some pretty significant injuries to key
Panthers players, as well as a well-publicised coaching change. But, again, the
 numbers are what they are.

Whatever the case, Reimer';s early-season inconsistency has to be frustrating
 for teammates, the organisation and Panthers fans, alike.

The stretch runs are fantastic, make no mistake; Reimer (and Luongo, for that
matter) standing on his head the second half of 2017-18 is a big reason the
Panthers finished the year on a 25-8-2 run. That said, the Panthers would be
better off if he played that way all year, or, at the very least, if he played
steadily to his end-of-season average throughout the entire campaign.Does
Reimer Have a Weak Glove Hand?

One of the most pervasive issues surrounding Reimer's career has been his
alleged weakness on his glove side.

There are other frequent complaints, to be sure. Rebound control is one, while
puck-tracking (i.e. through traffic) is another. For the most part, these
concerns, common to all goaltenders, don't seem to have much merit. Reimer is
simply a goaltender that, when he's off his game, he's really off his game,
with any errors being blatantly obvious. By and large, though, the numbers show
 he doesn't exactly make a habit of it.

But the glove hand thing just never seems to go away. Guy Boucher, then-coach
of the Tampa Bay Lightning, indicated back in 2011 there might have been a book
 on Reimer, with the results suggesting a number of teams felt the affable
Manitoban had weaknesses up high, particularly on his glove side.If Reimer
really did have such a defined, noteworthy weakness, would he really have
lasted as long as the has in the NHL - not to mention playing at the level he
has? (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Even if it was true at one time, over seven years have elapsed since then. With
 access to some of the very best coaching in the world, I can't see Reimer
having not addressed said issue - if it ever was an issue - a long, long time
ago.

Instead, I believe the perpetuation of this notion has more to do with
confirmation bias than anything else. If players tend to shoot more towards
Reimer's glove side, it's only natural more goals will be scored there. When
more goals are scored there, it's only natural to interpret this is an inherent
 weakness in Reimer's game.

It's very difficult to separate these variables and confounds from Reimer's
actual technique and performance. Again, looking to the numbers, weak glove
hand or not, he's still solidly in the top half of NHL netminders.Reimer's
Injury History Worrying

Another concern with Reimer is the fact he's often injured. He's missed
significant time throughout his career, both with some pretty serious
concussion issues, as well as a number of less serious, though arguably more
annoying groin ailments.

While groin injuries are common amongst goalies, and while one can't exactly
control when Brian Gionta or Brian Boyle decide to drill you in the head
(neither offense was punished by the NHL), the facts are what they are.



Given his thoroughly respectable numbers, it's reasonable to suggest perhaps
the biggest reason Reimer has not been given the role of full-time starter
either with the Maple Leafs or the Panthers has nothing to do with his play -
or even perceptions of his play, but rather his unfortunate history of
injury.Comparable Contracts Favour Reimer, Panthers

So, yes, good numbers or not, Reimer can be incredibly frustrating at times.

However, before breaking out the pitchforks, consider the fact he's not only a
reasonably good goalie, but he's also reasonably good value for money.

The five closest matches for Reimer's five-year, $3.4 million (cap hit) per
season contract he signed in the summer of 2016 are Thomas Greiss, Devan
Dubnyk, Scott Darling, Brian Elliott and Jonathan Bernier, in that order. Other
 than maybe Dubnyk, who it should be noted makes more money ($4.333 million
against the cap) for more years (six), I really can't see anyone taking any of
these goaltenders over Reimer.Part of building a contender, especially for a
budget team like the Panthers, involves having - and keeping - proven players
on good contracts. Thus, I can';t see general manager Dale Tallon being overly
eager to trade Reimer. (Photo by Francois Laplante / FreestylePhoto / Getty
Images)

Focussing solely on cap hit amongst goaltenders under contract for 2018-19,
Reimer's $3.4 million puts him in the neighbourhood of Andrei Vasilevskiy, Cam
Ward, Jacob Markstrom, Jonathan Bernier, Matt Murray, Philipp Grubauer and
Thomas Greiss.

Murray and Vasilevskiy certainly stand out, but they're both on three-year
bridge-esque deals. Come the summer of 2020, both of them will be paid
handsomely, no doubt.

As for the other five netminders, again, I'm pretty sure everyone's taking
Reimer over most, if not all of them.

It doesn't make for a particularly attractive headline, but Reimer's a
reasonable goalie making reasonable money. Sometimes, boring is
beneficial.James Reimer as Keith Yandle

James Reimer is a good goaltender. Even at the worst of times, he's generally
competent, while his tremendous in-season upside makes him a pretty decent
option for the Panthers, all things considered.

Ultimately, I think much of the disdain for the 30-year-old comes from the fact
 his bad bits are so noticeable. And noticeable they are, make no mistake. But
that doesn't mean he's not a net benefit between the pipes for the Panthers.

Think of Reimer as the Keith Yandle of goaltending, then; often infuriating
but, on the whole, you can't argue with the results.

(All advanced stats are thanks to Corsica and NHL.com. All metrics are in all
situations, unless otherwise specified.)

The post Panthers' Reimer: Reality Check appeared first on The Hockey Writers.

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