Most NHL teams actively try their hardest to avoid player arbitration. Last
season Nate Schmidt and the Golden Knights were the only one out of 30
potential cases to make it before an arbitrator. Now the Golden Knights look
destined to wind up back at the table when William Karlsson's case comes on
Aug. 4. Both sides seem to be on opposite ends of the spectrum when it comes to
 an agreement, but one way or another, Karlsson will be getting a new contract
before August is up.Golden Knights Want to Keep It Short-Term

Vegas general manager George McPhee would love to avoid the arbitration
hearing, but there is actually a benefit to letting the contract dispute go in
front of the third-party arbitrator, as the contract is guaranteed to be no
more than two years. The Golden Knights need to keep this contract short in
order to keep the team as successful as possible in the future. If they were to
 reward Karlsson now for his career season they'd be foolishly buying high on
the otherwise unproven center.The Golden Knights selected Karlsson in the
expansion draft from the Columbus Blue Jackets, where he collected a grand
total of 16 goals and 47 points in 165 games. Vegas has to be reasonably
concerned Karlsson';s numbers next season will dip significantly considering
his past performances. (Amy Irvin/The Hockey Writers)

Last season Karlsson was a fantastic player at both ends of the ice and a
certifiable first-line center. However, the chances he repeats a career season
like he just had are low. His shooting percentage of 23.4 percent is the
third-highest any full-time player has had in a season during the past 20 years
 behind Mike Ribeiro's 25.2 percent in 2007-08 and Curtis Glencross's 23.6
percent in 2011-12. Karlsson is no doubt part of the future of this
organization, but giving him a bridge deal will allow the team to lower the
value to a more sustainable price assuming some regression next
season.Short-Term Comparable: Brock Nelson

While Nelson had nowhere near the amazing season of Karlsson, he has been more
consistent overall. Nelson has scored 188 points in 398 career games with the
New York Islanders, good for 0.47 points per game compared to Karlsson's 0.48
points per game. But the real comparison here is the contract.Nelson didn';t
come close to matching Karlsson';s goal-scoring numbers last season, but he has
 been an impressively consistent winger, hovering around 20 goals and 40 points
 for the past four seasons. (Robert Duyos/USA TODAY Sports)

Nelson and the Islanders avoided arbitration with a one-year, $4.25-million
bridge deal for the player to prove he deserves long-term money. The Golden
Knights are looking to give Karlsson a similar contract in order to see whether
 or not his season was an anomaly before diving head-first into a rich
long-term contract.Karlsson Wants to Cash in Long-Term

After putting up a remarkable season, Karlsson would like to turn his success
into guaranteed stability. However, it is clear the team and player were on a
different page as soon as Karlsson and his agent filed for player-elected
arbitration.

WILD season

for

WILD Bill

🤠 pic.twitter.com/HFIxYH7TBy

- Vegas Golden Knights (@GoldenKnights) July 6, 2018

Unlike for the team, there really is no gamble in arbitration for Karlsson. He
either gets a long-term deal before the hearing or settles for a bridge deal
and looks to repeat his play next season. While a short-term deal will likely
cause him to miss out on a larger contract next offseason, he had no choice but
 to go through arbitration if the Golden Knights were refusing to entertain
signing him for more than a season or two. But most teams try their hardest to
avoid the hearing, giving Karlsson plenty of pressure to put on the
organization in the meantime.Long-Term Comparable: Jason Zucker

Plenty of long-term deals can still be struck out in the days leading up to
arbitration; see Winnipeg's Connor Hellebuyck or Calgary's Elias Lindholm, who
both signed six-year deals before their hearings. More recently, Jason Zucker
signed a five-year, $27.5-million contract with the Minnesota Wild after he
broke 30 goals and 60 points for the first time in his
career.Related: Niederreiter & Zucker and Playoff Scoring

Each player's scenario is a little different, but their main arguments are the
same: last season was not a fluke. And while Zucker has more history on which
to back up his stats on, Karlsson was much more important to his team';s
success. Karlsson received enough votes on the Selke Trophy ballot to place
sixth in the league for best defensive forward and spent over a full minute
more per game on the penalty kill than Zucker while being matched up against
opposing team's top lines all season long. Karlsson also vastly outplayed
Zucker during the playoffs, posting 15 points in 20 games compared to the Wild
winger's zero points in five games.Zucker';s increase in goals last season came
 from an increase in shots on net more than an increase in shooting percentage.
 Karlsson can learn from this in a way. If he can find the net on more shot
attempts more often than he did last season, a decrease in shooting percentage
won';t affect his goal totals as significantly. (Isaiah J. Downing/USA TODAY
Sports)

Using Zucker as a comparison, Karlsson can get away with asking for $6.5
million per season at a minimum for five or six years. Regardless, it is up to
 the Golden Knights whether Karlsson gets a long-term deal or not. If the team
doesn't feel comfortable taking a gamble all they have to do is wait for the
arbitration hearing.Sustainability Is the Question for Karlsson

Obviously, the big stumbling block in this negotiation for the Golden Knights
is whether or not Karlsson can repeat his success. That is why the team is
looking for a bridge contract in a time when bridge deals are becoming rare
around the league. They can't be caught with a massive contract if Karlsson's
season was a one-off success.Related: NHL Bridge Deals Are Falling Down

Unfortunately for Vegas, if he does show a repeat in success next season, that
following contract is only going to get bigger. McPhee has to hedge his bets on
 what is best for the team. It may not be worth bartering with Karlsson for a
shorter contract if his demands are reasonable. Jonathan Marchessault led the
way for his team by signing a six-year, $30-million contract in January despite
 being worth more on the free agent market. If Karlsson is willing to sign a
similar contract to stay on the team, the Golden Knights have to jump on that
despite their trepidations.Prediction: Golden Knights Will Get Their Wish

As of now, there has been little news on the status of negotiations. It is
looking like Karlsson's arbitration hearing won't be avoided with a last-second
 contract like many others have been. On one hand, the Golden Knights will get
their short-term contract, but any arbitration hearing is bound to further
divide the player from his team; just ask Tommy Salo.Perhaps most importantly
in this situation, Karlsson will be back with the team for at least one more
season. Since the player elected to go through arbitration, he automatically
accepts any ruling handed down by the arbitrator. (Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty
Images)

With most of the stats on their side, the arbitrator will be siding closer to
the team than the player once all is said and done. We have not heard yet what
either side is asking for, but my prediction would be a one-year, $4-million
contract being the end outcome of the meeting. While the contract will
certainly be low for a player coming off a season in which he was third in the
league in goals scored, Karlsson will have to prove that what he did was no
fluke. If he comes back next season and pots another 40 goals, the Golden
Knights will be more than happy to reward the efforts of their number-one
center.

The post Predicting William Karlsson's New Contract appeared first on The
Hockey Writers.

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