On Aug. 3, Brock Nelson and the New York Islanders will present their cases to
an arbitrator in Toronto. Nelson is the only Islander without a contract for
the 2018-19 season and as a restricted free agent, has used his right to file
for arbitration. Coming off a three-year deal worth $7.5 million ($2.5 million
AAV), Nelson is looking for a substantial raise.

The question is, how much of a raise will the 26-year-old receive?Arbitration

Typically, players who file for arbitration are able to work out a deal with
their club before the meeting takes place. In fact, last year there was only
one arbitration hearing after 30 players had filed, between defenseman Nate
Schmidt and the Vegas Golden Knights.Vegas Golden Knights defenseman Nate
Schmidt (John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports)

This summer, 44 players filed for arbitration and the meetings have been taking
 place since Jul. 20. Forty-eight hours after the hearing, the arbitrator will
present a verdict and if the team does not accept it, the player becomes an
unrestricted free agent. So far, only one case was settled by an arbitrator
with the Winnipeg Jets accepting the verdict and signing defenseman Jacob
Trouba to a one-year deal worth $5.5 million.

Twenty-three of the 44 cases were worked out between the player and club
without (or before) an arbitrator being involved.Islanders'; SituationIslanders
 left wing Ross Johnston (Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports)

The Islanders had nine restricted free agents (RFAs) and elected to qualify
just five of them, letting go of Brandon Davidson, Shane Prince, Alan Quine,
and Kyle Schempp but retaining the rights to Devon Toews, Kyle Burroughs, Ross
Johnston, Ryan Pulock, and Nelson.

Of the five players retained, three were eligible for arbitration including
Johnston, Toews, and Nelson. Nelson was the only one that filed and remains the
 only RFA who is un-signed.

According to CapFriendly, the Islanders have an estimated $14.8 million
available in cap space, fourth-most in the league.

Throughout his NHL career, Nelson has primarily played at center but has had
stints on both wings. The Islanders'; weakest position is center. Not including
 Nelson, the team';s center depth chart looks like this: Mathew Barzal, Jan
Kovar, Casey Cizikas, Valtteri Filppula. Of course, losing John
Tavares didn';t help but they';re better off with Nelson than without
him.Nelson';s Situation

This is the second time in Nelson';s career that he has been an RFA in need of
a new deal. However, this is the first time he is arbitration eligible and has
 expressed his right to a hearing.

When Charles Wang was the majority owner and Garth Snow was the general
manager, the team had a strict policy. If an RFA didn';t agree to a deal before
 the day training camp started, they would sit out the season. The NHL has a
similar deadline but it';s substantially later: Dec. 1.Former general manager
Garth Snow of the New York Islanders talks on the phone during the 2017 NHL
Draft at United Center on June 24, 2017, in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Dave
Sandford/NHLI via Getty Images)

There have been some very close calls because of the team policy: Josh Bailey
signed an extension hours before training camp began in 2011, Nelson signed his
 most recent contract the night before training camp in 2015, and Ryan Strome
signed his contract extension three days before training camp in 2016.

Management isn';t bluffing either. In the 2006 offseason, two RFAs, Sean
Bergenheim and Denis Grebeshkov, did not sign before the team-mandated deadline
 and spent the 2006-07 season in Russia. However, with Lou Lamoriello now in
charge and with new ownership (Jon Ledecky and Scott Malkin), it is unknown if
the rule is still in place especially since Snow is still with the organization
 as is Wang who remains as a minority owner.Nelson';s Importance

Nelson, the 30th overall pick in the 2010 NHL Entry Draft, is coming off his
fifth NHL season. In 398 regular-season games, he has scored 99 goals and 188
points. The Warroad, Minnesota native has scored 20-plus goals in three of his
 five NHL seasons and fell just shy of a fourth-straight 20-goal campaign with
19 last year.

Last season, Nelson spent the majority of his time centering the third line. As
 one of just four players on last year';s roster to play in all 82 games,
Nelson had several different linemates including Andrew Ladd, Josh Ho-Sang,
Tanner Fritz, Anthony Beauvillier, Prince, Nikolay Kulemin, Quine, and Jason
Chimera. Still, he managed 19 goals and 35 points, good for eighth on the team
 in scoring and sixth in goals.Islanders center Brock Nelson (Tom
Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Playing on the second power-play unit, Nelson scored four power-play goals and
eight points. He was also third on the team in faceoff wins, winning 389 of 805
 draws (48.3 percent).Salary vs Term in Final Contract

Assuming the Islanders and Nelson go to arbitration, what will the settlement
turn out to be? In my opinion, Nelson will be awarded a two-year deal worth $8
 million ($4 million AAV). He is a consistent 20ish-goal scorer and with goals
hard to come by these days, that is valuable. A $1.5 million raise is a fair
offer given that he sometimes goes missing for stretches.New York Islanders
forward Brock Nelson (Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)

Whatever the actual salary, it is important that the Islanders get term on the
deal. If Nelson is awarded a one-year deal, he will become an unrestricted free
 agent (UFA) in 2019. With pending UFAs Robin Lehner, Filppula, Kovar, Anders
Lee, Jordan Eberle and others to deal with next offseason, adding Nelson to the
 mix will hurt the Isles.

The post Predicting Brock Nelson';s New Contract appeared first on The Hockey
Writers.

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