Normally, by this point in the summer, NHL rosters are fairly set and I feel
comfortable - if not confident - in publishing my offseason standings
predictions.

This year, not so much. There is still lots of uncertainty around the league,
as we wait for the Erik Karlsson shoe to drop in Ottawa and that anticipated
domino effect.

There is also the Max Pacioretty situation in Montreal, and Carolina could
further shake things up at any moment by moving Justin Faulk and/or Jeff
Skinner. Plus, a number of teams that missed out on John Tavares have the cap
space to improve through trades.

Plenty of trade rumor discussion in here. Karlsson, Panarin, Pacioretty,
Skinner, Faulk... some big names could still switch teams this summer
https://t.co/gyTurdnA7w

- Derek Neumeier (@Derek_N_NHL) July 21, 2018

I'm bracing for a busier August than usual, so any July predictions might be
out the window before training camps open in September and certainly before the
 puck drops in October.

Nevertheless, now that free agency has run its course for the most part, it is
time to tackle my offseason predictions. Time to keep this annual tradition
going - for better or worse.

Truth be told, I haven't been getting any better the past few years. Quite the
opposite. I correctly predicted 13-of-16 playoffs teams for 2015-16, 11-of-16
for 2016-17 and only 9-of-16 for 2017-18.

Yes, last season was a rough one for me - getting just 4-of-8 playoff teams
right in the Western Conference and 5-of-8 in the Eastern Conference from my
offseason predictions.

So this season is all about redemption, or perhaps retirement from the
prediction game.

Latest Stanley Cup odds from Bovada: pic.twitter.com/u4rfb5FTaJ

- Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) July 2, 2018

It's tough to say where I've been going wrong - I don't have that answer, yet -
 and it might simply be the fact that the NHL is becoming less and less
predictable from one year to the next. For that, we can both blame and thank
parity.

I have also been blamed for putting too much stock in fancy stats, which is
funny since I rarely ever reference analytics in my writing. Yes, I do factor
the underlying numbers and data into my work - you'd be a fool if you didn't in
 2018 - but a lot of my predictions are still a gut feeling at the end of the
day.

That's the case again this year, where some of my predictions will seem more
reasonable or justifiable than others. Some may seem outlandish as of today
but, as always, time will tell. So here goes nothing, again . . .

NOTE: In parenthesis is the variation from the final regular-season standings
for 2017-18.Pacific Division(Christian Petersen/Getty Images)
Alex Tuch and the Vegas Golden Knights defied all the odds in making
everybody';s predictions look bad by advancing to the Stanley Cup Final in
their expansion season. What can Tuch and his teammates do for an encore in
2018-19?

1) Vegas Golden Knights (=)

2) San Jose Sharks (+1)

3) Edmonton Oilers (+3)

4) Calgary Flames (+1)

5) Anaheim Ducks (-3)

6) Los Angeles Kings (-2)

7) Arizona Coyotes (+1)

8) Vancouver Canucks (-1)Central Division(John Russell/NHLI via Getty Images)
Blake Wheeler and the Winnipeg Jets hit their stride last season and raised
expectations for the coming campaign.

1) Winnipeg Jets (+1)

2) Nashville Predators (-1)

3) St. Louis Blues (+2)

4) Colorado Avalanche (=)

5) Dallas Stars (+1)

6) Minnesota Wild (-3)

7) Chicago Blackhawks (=)Atlantic Division(Amy Irvin / The Hockey Writers)
Steven Stamkos and the Tampa Bay Lightning will be looking over their shoulders
 this season, but do they have enough firepower to stay on top of the Atlantic
Division?

1) Tampa Bay Lightning (=)

2) Toronto Maple Leafs (+1)

3) Boston Bruins (-1)

4) Florida Panthers (=)

5) Buffalo Sabres (+3)

6) Detroit Red Wings (-1)

7) Montreal Canadiens (-1)

8) Ottawa Senators (-1)Metropolitan Division(Don Wright/USA TODAY Sports)
The Pittsburgh Penguins are sticking with their core - including Sidney Crosby,
 centre, Evgeny Malkin, right, and Patric Hornqvist, left - and that group
still matches up well against anyone and everyone in the Metropolitan Division
and across the league.

1) Pittsburgh Penguins (+1)

2) Washington Capitals (-1)

3) Philadelphia Flyers (=)

4) Columbus Blue Jackets (=)

5) Carolina Hurricanes (+1)

6) New Jersey Devils (-1)

7) New York Islanders (=)

8) New York Rangers (=)

Western Conference Playoff PictureFirst RoundPacific Division

P1) Vegas Golden Knights vs. WC1) Calgary Flames

P2) San Jose Sharks vs. P3) Edmonton OilersCentral Division

C1) Winnipeg Jets vs. WC2) Colorado Avalanche

C2) Nashville Predators vs. C3) St. Louis BluesSecond RoundPacific Division

P3) Edmonton Oilers vs. WC1) Calgary FlamesCentral Division

C1) Winnipeg Jets vs. C2) Nashville PredatorsThird Round

C1) Winnipeg Jets vs. P3) Edmonton OilersEastern Conference Playoff
PictureFirst RoundAtlantic Division

A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. WC1) Columbus Blue Jackets

A2) Toronto Maple Leafs vs. A3) Boston BruinsMetropolitan Division

M1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. WC2) Florida Panthers

M2) Washington Capitals vs. M3) Philadelphia FlyersSecond RoundAtlantic
Division

A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. A2) Toronto Maple LeafsMetropolitan Division

M1) Pittsburgh Penguins vs. M2) Washington CapitalsThird Round

A1) Tampa Bay Lightning vs. M1) Pittsburgh PenguinsFourth RoundStanley Cup
Final

C1) Winnipeg Jets vs. M1) Pittsburgh Penguins

Draft Lottery Order

1) Ottawa Senators (Colorado Avalanche)

2) New York Rangers

3) New York Islanders

4) Vancouver Canucks

5) Montreal Canadiens

6) Detroit Red Wings

7) Arizona Coyotes

8) New Jersey Devils

9) Buffalo Sabres

10) Chicago Blackhawks

11) Minnesota Wild

12) Carolina Hurricanes

13) Dallas Stars

14) Los Angeles Kings

15) Anaheim Ducks

Pacific Division1) Vegas Golden Knights

ANALYSIS: The Golden Misfits - the best story in hockey since the turn of the
century - won't sneak up on anybody in their sophomore season. They proved in
the playoffs that their expansion campaign was no fluke - that their
division-winning success was more than mere luck - but, rest assured, everybody
 will be taking Vegas seriously from the outset this time around.

The Golden Knights are now the team to beat in the Pacific and that will make
for many tougher nights, especially with opposing teams knowing what to expect
from the new kids on the block in terms of line combinations and systems.
Almost everything went right for Vegas in their debut - at least up until
Braden Holtby's miraculous paddle stop in Game 2 of the Stanley Cup Final - so
it'll be difficult to duplicate in an encore.

The Golden Knights lost some scoring on the wings with James Neal (Calgary) and
 David Perron (St. Louis) departing through free agency, but they got even
deeper down the middle with the signing of Paul Stastny. George McPhee might
still be able to put a rabbit out of his hat or an ace out of his sleeve if he
can land Karlsson from Ottawa, likely with Bobby Ryan in tow.

Either way, I've lost enough pride (and money) in betting against Vegas from
start to finish in 2017-18, so I'm going to give the Golden Knights the benefit
 of doubt for 2018-19. They won't be as good as last season for the reasons
mentioned above, but Vegas will come out on top of a highly competitive Pacific
 Division.2) San Jose Sharks

ANALYSIS: The Sharks didn't win the Tavares sweepstakes, but Doug Wilson still
has the cap space to be a pre-season buyer. As mentioned, there are several
potential targets in play - perhaps even Phil Kessel from Pittsburgh or Artemi
Panarin from Columbus, to throw two more names out there.

Joe Thornton is coming back, and as long as he's in the fold, San Jose will be
in win-now mode in hopes of getting their longtime leader that elusive Stanley
Cup. The Sharks' window to win may not last long - with the Joes, Thornton and
Pavelski, past their prime - so they may as well go for it while they can.

Logan Couture and Evander Kane are now locked up long-term, and the rest of the
 core remains the same with Brent Burns and Marc-Edouard Vlasic on the back
end, and Martin Jones between the pipes. That group doesn't scream Cup
contender, but I don't think Wilson is done.

I also think the Sharks are going to grow from within as Tomas Hertl and Timo
Meier continue to develop into potent power forwards. The depth is above
average and that should keep the Sharks above the playoff cutline for
2018-19.3) Edmonton Oilers

ANALYSIS: The Oilers didn't improve much on paper - they couldn't because of
their cap crunch - so this prediction will raise eyebrows and probably bring
out the ΓÇÿhomer' critics. However, I'm never going to bet against Connor
McDavid. He's the best player in the game and becoming one of the best
goal-scorers too. Providing McDavid stays healthy, his team should always stay
in the playoff picture.

Yes, I realize McDavid had a great year last season and the Oilers missed, but
I think Edmonton was making strides in the right direction during garbage time
and showing signs of becoming a playoff team again.

For that to happen in 2018-19, Cam Talbot, Milan Lucic and Edmonton's power
play need to rebound. Those three held the Oilers back in 2017-18, prompting an
 overhaul of the assistant coaches and an overpayment for KHL free agent Mikko
Koskinen to solidify the goaltending alongside Talbot. I do think the power
play will be improved, with tweaking from Glen Gulutzan and Manny Viveiros, and
 the other two are veteran players with pride who should still be in their
prime. I have more confidence in Talbot returning to form in a contract year
than Lucic, but both should be better to some degree.

Depth is something of a concern, particularly on right wing and right-side
defence. As a result, the Oilers will be counting on significant contributions
from their top prospects - starting with Jesse Puljujarvi but also including
Kailer Yamamoto and perhaps even Evan Bouchard. If those three can stick in the
 NHL and be consistently productive, Edmonton will soar back up the standings.
But betting on youth is always a big IF!

That said, the expectations - certainly external - are lower than last season
and that might be the biggest factor in the Oilers' resurgence since their
young group should perform better without that pressure. No homer, I like
Edmonton's playoff chances.4) Calgary Flames

ANALYSIS: The Flames finished ahead of the Oilers last season and have improved
 their roster much more in the offseason. Calgary now has a good - solid and
deep - team on paper thanks to Brad Treliving's handiwork in acquiring Noah
Hanifin and Elias Lindholm from Carolina (for Dougie Hamilton and Micheal
Ferland), signing James Neal and Derek Ryan as free agents, and hiring Bill
Peters as head coach.

The Flames' forward group is impressive and should be able to attack in waves
with four scoring lines. The defence is decent, albeit overrated in recent
years, and the goaltending hinges on Mike Smith's health.

All in all, Calgary has the makings of a playoff team, but it's going to be a
real battle for these middle-four positions in the Pacific standings. Injuries,
 luck and head-to-head results will determine which two make the cut. I went
with the Alberta clubs over their California foes.5) Anaheim Ducks

ANALYSIS: This division is tougher to rank than usual and I debated back and
forth between these next two before deciding to give the Ducks a slight edge.
Anaheim is returning much the same roster that finished second in the Pacific
last season, but might be missing Ryan Kesler again for some or all of 2018-19.

Without Kesler, I may be inclined to drop the Ducks another spot. This team is
trending down, but Ryan Getzlaf should have at least one more good year left in
 him and Corey Perry should be a bit better than last season too. That old
guard will eventually pass the torch, but there isn't much elite talent there
to take it and run.

Rickard Rakell is the real deal, the Ducks' top four on defence are all in
their prime years, and a case can be made for John Gibson as the division's top
 goalie. Adam Henrique, Jakob Silfverberg and Ondrej Kase are complimentary
pieces, plus Anaheim is expected to get Patrick Eaves back from a season lost
to illness. There is some hope that Sam Steel and Troy Terry will be ready to
step into regular roles as well, with or without Kesler in the lineup.

So the Ducks aren't washed up just yet, but the rest of the division might be
passing them by and many still believe the game has passed by Randy Carlyle.
Bob Murray obviously believes his workhorses can get the job done again, but I
have my doubts about Anaheim going forward.6) Los Angeles Kings

ANALYSIS: The Kings could really go either way. A healthy Jeff Carter, a full
season of Dion Phaneuf, and the addition of Ilya Kovalchuk has Rob Blake's boys
 looking primed for at least one more playoff appearance. But Anze Kopitar and
Dustin Brown could experience letdowns, Jonathan Quick's body seems to be
wearing down, and the forward depth is still lacking for L.A., which was
evident during that first-round sweep at the hands of Vegas.

Kovalchuk is the wild card in his return to the NHL and how he clicks with
Kopitar - or Carter - will be a big factor in the Kings' success or lack
thereof. If That 70s Line, with Carter centering Tyler Toffoli and Tanner
Pearson, can rekindle their chemistry and Kovalchuk can fill the net while
flanking Kopitar and Brown, then the Kings could score enough to make the
playoffs again.

Los Angeles will get its share of offence from the defence and a healthy Quick
can steal low-scoring games in goal. The bottom-six forwards leave a lot to be
desired in a division where depth is king, but Adrian Kempe has a lot of upside
 and Gabe Vilardi might be able to make an immediate impact as a rookie.

The Kings have enough star power, but do they have enough depth and can Quick
hold up? Those are the big question marks for me and this placement in the
standings suggests I'm leaning towards ΓÇÿno' for those answers.7) Arizona
Coyotes

ANALYSIS: Rick Tocchet had the Coyotes playing better hockey in the second
half, so there is some optimism in Arizona for 2018-19. Understandable, but I
don't think this team is ready to compete for a playoff spot just yet. It's
possible, sure, but it's not probable in my opinion.

Antti Raanta, Alex Galchenyuk and Dylan Strome could change my mind if they all
 get off to good starts, but my confidence in those three remains lukewarm.
Raanta came on strong once healthy and posted some of the league's better
goaltending numbers down the stretch, but those were meaningless games and
we'll see if he can pick up where he left off when the pressure is really on.
Galchenyuk needed that change of scenery from Montreal, but his linemates in
Arizona won't be much better unless he's paired with Clayton Keller. Strome's
deployment has also been puzzling, but he still has a high ceiling if his
skating continues to improve.

Arizona's defence is a strength, though it's uncertain how much time Jakob
Chychrun will miss to start the season. That group should be able to help
Raanta keep the goals-against down, but the offence will be a work in progress.

I wasn't a big fan of picking Barrett Hayton over Filip Zadina and Quinn Hughes
 at fifth overall. Hayton is further away and may not have elite upside,
whereas the other two could have been difference-makers already this season and
 may have given the Coyotes a push towards the playoffs. I saw that a missed
opportunity and I see this as another building year for Arizona.8) Vancouver
Canucks

ANALYSIS: The Canucks are planning to sink or swim with their youth in the
post-Sedins era. I like that approach, even if I didn't like the free-agent
contracts handed to Jay Beagle, Antoine Roussel and Tim Schaller.

With the 2019 NHL draft in Vancouver next June, the home team should be in the
spotlight with another top-10 and likely top-five, if not a top-three pick.
Travis Green doesn't want to hear that and he might be able to get more out of
the Canucks than most expect, but Green also shouldn't have to worry about his
job security if they do wind up a lottery team. The coach should be afforded an
 opportunity to grow with this young group over the next few seasons.

Brock Boeser burst onto the NHL scene as a rookie goal-scoring sensation in
2017-18, and Bo Horvat is the likely candidate to become Vancouver's new
captain as the club's No. 1 centre. The latter title may transfer to Elias
Pettersson in the years to come, with the Swedish teen projected to debut in a
prominent role this season. Promising defender Quinn Hughes might also turn
pro, leaving college to play in the city where his brother Jack is the
favourite to go first overall in 2019.

A portion of Vancouver's fan base will be hoping to unite the brothers, but
owner Francesco Aquilini has always been more of a win-now, butts-in-the-seats
type boss. If he can embrace the rebuild, now that the Sedins have retired, it
would be in the Canucks' best interests.Central Division1) Winnipeg Jets

ANALYSIS: The Jets will be reaping the benefits of their draft-and-develop
strategy for the better part of the next decade and are primed to take another
step this season - even without Stastny.

That loss will be felt, along with moving Joel Armia to Montreal (as part of
the Steven Mason salary dump) and the departure of a character veteran like
Matt Hendricks to Minnesota, but Winnipeg can plug those holes from within by
promoting the likes of Jack Roslovic, Nic Petan and Brendan Lemieux, or
possibly AHL standout Mason Appleton or 2017 first-rounder Kristian Vesalainen.
 On the blue line, another AHL sensation, Sami Niku, and Joe Morrow will
compete for Tobias Enstrom's playing time.

Kevin Cheveldayoff was quiet in free agency, only adding Laurent Brossoit to
compete with Eric Comrie for the backup role, but he was busy locking up his
core group, including starting goaltender Connor Helleybuck and defenceman
Jacob Trouba, with captain Blake Wheeler also needing an extension as he enters
 the final year of his contract. Cheveldayoff has set the table so well that he
 can focus on housekeeping and still ice a team that is favoured to win the
division banner.

Winnipeg isn't the nicest place in the middle of winter, but the Jets are fast
becoming the envy of the league and should be seen as a Cup contender for years
 to come.2) Nashville Predators

ANALYSIS: The Predators aren't going anywhere either. Nashville remains stacked
 and should be a force to reckon with in 2018-19 thanks in large part to David
Poile's ability to negotiate bargain contracts for his best players. That is
and will continue to be a key component to the Predators' on-ice success and
roster flexibility. They can build around their core for the foreseeable
future.

That P.K. Subban for Shea Weber blockbuster is, predictably, looking better and
 better for Nashville with every passing season. The Predators' top four on
defence, with Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm surrounding Subban, is
still the NHL's best group, though Tampa Bay might take that title if they land
 Karlsson to go with Victor Hedman, Ryan McDonagh and Anton Stralman.
Regardless, Nashville's defence is elite and its goaltending is upper echelon
as well with Pekka Rinne returning to Vezina form last season and Juuse Saros
pushing for more action as his successor.

Both Winnipeg and Nashville are equipped to roll four scoring lines, with the
Predators getting a boost from a full season of Ryan Hartman and potential
Calder candidate Eeli Tolvanen, their 2017 first-rounder who tore up the KHL
last season before getting a brief taste of the NHL.

It's an embarrassment of riches up front for Peter Laviolette and the
Predators' window to win is wide open for a handful of years. Nashville is a
playoff lock, but getting past Winnipeg will prove even more difficult this
time around.3) St. Louis Blues

ANALYSIS: The Blues were the most improved team this offseason, adding an
entire forward line through free agency with Tyler Bozak, David Perron and
Patrick Maroon, while also trading for Ryan O'Reilly. Doug Armstrong deserves
mad props for those efforts in retooling St. Louis into a probable playoff team
 and a possible contender again.

Another team that can run with four scoring lines, the Blues should be able to
hold their own against Winnipeg and Nashville, and might be as good as any team
 in the Pacific despite slotting third in the Central.

St. Louis needs more consistency from Jake Allen and has to hope for healthy
seasons from veteran blueliners Jay Bouwmeester and Carl Gunnarsson, though the
 blue line will be anchored by Alex Pietrangelo, Colton Parayko, Joel Edmundson
 and Vince Dunn going forward.

That's a good group overall, a good roster overall, and the pressure now falls
on Mike Yeo to get the most out of his new-look squad - even if the most
amounts to a first-round playoff exit against the second seed, be it Nashville
or Winnipeg.4) Colorado Avalanche

ANALYSIS: The Avs shouldn't be a one-year wonder, not with Nathan MacKinnon now
 the superstar most expected him to be, and anticipated growth from the likes
of Mikko Rantanen, Tyson Jost, Alex Kerfoot and J.T. Compher up front, plus
Samuel Girard and Nikita Zadorov on the back end. They should all take the next
 step in their development, benefitting from their first playoff experience.

Colorado's goaltending stands to improve too, with the tandem of Semyon
Varlamov and trade acquisition Philipp Grubauer, though Jonathan Bernier also
performed admirably last season. The Avs also signed Pavel Francouz from the
KHL as an insurance policy in case Varlamov gets hurts again.

Joe Sakic has constructed a young roster that could still go either way - up or
 down - in one of the league's more competitive divisions top to bottom, but I
 like Colorado's chances of making the playoffs again as a wild-card team. I
wouldn't bet my life savings on the Avs making it, with more veteran teams
pushing upward, but I wouldn't bet against Jared Bednar's group either.5)
Dallas Stars

ANALYSIS: If another team, besides St. Louis, were to overtake Colorado this
season, my money would be on Dallas. I'm a big fan of the Stars' new-look
coaching staff, with Jim Montgomery and Todd Nelson, and the roster is
certainly strong enough to be a playoff team.

That becomes more of a certainty if the Stars acquire Karlsson, even if it
costs them stud prospect Miro Heiskanen. Jim Nill will continue his efforts to
get without giving on that front, and it may depend on Karlsson's willingness
to sign an extension with Dallas, but he'd put the Stars over the top, at least
 in terms of making the postseason. In Dallas, Karlsson could be reunited with
former defence partner Marc Methot, while also playing alongside John
Klingberg, Esa Lindell and perhaps Heiskanen and/or Julius Honka. That would be
 a stacked blue line, but the Stars are solid on the back end even if Karlsson
doesn't come to fruition.

Up front, there's the big three of Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Alex Radulov,
but the Stars were also in the running for Tavares, so you know Nill is still
big-game hunting. Montgomery and Nelson might be able to spark a resurgence
from Jason Spezza and a breakout from Mattias Janmark or Brett Ritchie. There
is more forward depth in Dallas than people realize, especially if Martin
Hanzal can get healthy and with Valeri Nichushkin returning from the KHL.

Health is going to be a big factor for the Stars and that extends to Ben
Bishop, who is capable of being a top-10 goalie, but I'm expecting Dallas to
take a step forward and be knocking on the playoff door or possibly kicking it
down. The Stars will be in the wild-card mix in 2018-19.6) Minnesota Wild

--- SBBSecho 3.05-Win32
 * Origin: TequilaMockingbird Online - Toms River, NJ (1:266/404)