The Vegas Golden Knights are still in on the Erik Karlsson trade sweepstakes,
depending on who you believe. They have the cap space and, potentially, the
trade chips available - and adding a generational talent like Karlsson would
surely help shore up a back-end that needs some help.

But...at what cost?

Perhaps the reason he has yet to be moved is that the price is HIGH -
reportedly as steep as two first-round picks, a high-end prospect, a couple
good young players the Ottawa Senators can plug into their lineup right away,
as well as the ability to absorb Bobby Ryan';s albatross contract in the deal.
Not many teams have the ability to do that, but the Golden Knights might be one
 such franchise.Erik Karlsson reportedly was almost traded to the Vegas Golden
Knights at the 2018 trade deadline. What will he cost this summer? (Amy Irvin /
 The Hockey Writers)

After locking up defenseman Colin Miller, the Golden Knights currently have
roughly $15 million in available cap space, with restricted free agents William
 Karlsson, Shea Theodore, Tomas Nosek, and William Carrier yet to sign. Of
course, some of these players might be pieces of the trade, but more on that
later.

First, let me say straight away that I am against a trade for Erik Karlsson,
gifted as he may be, for a few reasons:

What he will cost.His injury history.There';s no guarantee he would sign an
extension.THAT COST!

Vegas Could Let Early Success Get to Their Heads

The Golden Knights'; inaugural season was undoubtedly one of the best sports
stories of the year, and there is reason to believe they can continue to
contend this coming season and beyond just by staying the course they';re
already on.The Vegas Golden Knights were Western Conference Champions in their
inaugural season. Did they set the bar too high for an encore? (Photo by Jason
Halstead/Getty Images)

However, they';ve shown that they aren';t afraid to toss plans out the window
and go all-in on "win now" mode. They just reached a three-year extension with
goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury, who will turn 34 in November, and already made a
splash in free agency with the surprising signing of 32-year-old Paul Stastny.
Since they let James Neal and David Perron walk, they could use one more
top-nine forward, and a top-flight defenseman would certainly be the cherry on
top.

Enter Erik Karlsson, the veritable cupcake-topper. Oh, and hey there Bobby
Ryan, looking to rejuvenate his career. The two would certainly address a team
need and fit the bill for an "all-in" run. The Knights would instantly go from
"Yeah, they';ll probably be good again, but maybe not that good," to one of the
 Stanley Cup favorites.Drawbacks: Karlsson';s Health & Price

But Karlsson hasn';t always been the healthiest player. He had his Achilles
tendon severed in 2012 and had surgery to repair torn tendons in his left foot
following the 2016-17 playoffs, forcing him to miss the start of last season.
Karlsson himself admitted to having lost a step after his most recent surgery
and having to modify his game. But that';s what the great players do, and
Karlsson still put up 62 points last season despite being on a terrible team
with a broken locker room, recovering from offseason surgery, and enduring
personal tragedy.Does Erik Karlsson want out of Ottawa? No one would blame him
if he did. (Photo by Andre Ringuette/NHLI via Getty Images)

Karlsson certainly wouldn';t be blamed if he wanted a change of scenery, and
surely won';t take a hometown discount to stay, which the Senators have
reportedly asked for with their offer of a contract extension. He will command
at least the $11-million cap hit Drew Doughty was just given in his new
contract, setting the bar for the elite defensemen. That cap hit, plus Bobby
Ryan ($7.25 million until 2021-22), is a lot of money to take on, and some
would need to be moved off the books to make room.

So with all that being said, I don';t mind playing a devil';s advocate armchair
 GM for a bit and entertaining some ideas of what the cost for Karlsson might
be. Let';s take a look.Karlsson for Karlsson

Yes, hot-take alert. This one hasn';t been mentioned, and I';m not sure why
not. The William, or "Wild Bill" version of Karlsson just had an astronomical
season, and his value will never be higher. He entered the season with 18
career goals, then went and scored 43 in his first season as a Golden Knight.
He had a ridiculous 23.4-percent shooting percentage that he likely won';t
approach again.William Karlsson had a career year with the Vegas Golden
Knights. Will his value ever get higher? (Photo by Jeff Bottari/NHLI via Getty
Images)

Karlsson (William) had been in a fourth-line role previously in his career, and
 is clearly a gifted defensive forward with wheels to go with now-tapped
offensive ability. But what can you really expect from him year in and year
out? There will absolutely be some regression, but 50-60 points per season
seems like a reasonable expectation.

Perhaps capitalizing on his breakout season would help alleviate some of the
blow from the deal, but it would break up the Golden Knights'; dynamic top line
 and take away their most valuable forward. However, perhaps Paul Stastny can
slot into that top line for now until one of top prospects Cody Glass or Nick
Suzuki are ready.

Speaking of whom...The Prospects: Glass, Suzuki, Brannstrom & Hague

While it would make for an interesting law firm, the reality of an Erik
Karlsson trade is that Vegas would have to part with (at least) one of its
top-tier prospects in centers Glass and Suzuki, and defensemen Erik Brannstrom
and Nicolas Hague.Vegas Golden Knights prospect Nicolas Hague could be
requested in a potential deal for Erik Karlsson. (Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY
Sports)

With only two draft classes, the Golden Knights don';t have a very deep
prospect pool to draw from, especially since this year';s first-rounder was
sent to Detroit as part of the Tomas Tatar trade. Part of being an expansion
team is slowly but surely growing the farm system, and a trade for Erik
Karlsson would damage that process. The Senators would in all likelihood want
Cody Glass in the trade, but the Golden Knights seem more likely to part with
Nick Suzuki. Adding in either the sleek-skating Brannstrom or the monster,
Victor Hedman-esque, Nicolas Hague would sweeten the deal.

One might think the Senators would ask for Shea Theodore as part of the deal,
but with his skill set almost identical to Ottawa';s young stud defenseman,
Thomas Chabot, it would make the players redundant and thus Theodore not as
valuable to the Sens.The Bobby Ryan Factor

All along in the rumors surrounding an Erik Karlsson trade is the fact that
whoever gets Karlsson might also have to take on Bobby Ryan and his
$7.25-million cap hit. But what if Vegas asked for Matt Duchene instead? This
would fill the hole left at first-line center with William Karlsson being a
part of the deal, and give the Golden Knights a player in his prime to build
around.

Yes, he just got his change of scenery last season, but would anyone be upset
about getting traded away from Ottawa right now? Like Karlsson, Duchene also
has only one season remaining on his contract and would become a UFA at the end
 of the season. It';s a reach, but that';s what this whole article is
about!Winger Bobby Ryan is thought to be a package deal for anyone hoping to
acquire Erik Karlsson. (Marc DesRosiers-USA TODAY Sports)

As for Bobby Ryan, he has been an unmitigated disaster in Ottawa, and there is
perhaps no player in the league who could benefit from being dealt to a new
team more than him. When motivated, Ryan can still be a solid, top-six wing,
using his big body and creativity to generate scoring. Remember the 2017
playoffs when he played more like the player Ottawa thought they were getting
from Anaheim years before instead of the one who has a total of 58 points over
the last two seasons?

Perhaps he too could drink from the fountain of youth at Caesar';s Palace and
be born again as a Golden Knight, something we';ve seen happen a bit here in
the team';s one season of existence.Draft Pick Issue: The Jack Hughes
Sweepstakes

This is a major factor in everything. I';ve seen some chatter about Ottawa
dumping salary, mailing in their season, and loading up for the future. Much of
 this hangs upon winning the 2019 entry draft lottery and landing blue-chip
prospect Jack Hughes.Jack Hughes is the prize of the 2019 draft class, but he
won';t be playing in Ottawa. (Photo by Dave Reginek/Getty Images)

The problem is, the Senators can';t go into full tank mode in hopes of scooping
 up Hughes because they traded away their pick in the Matt Duchene deal last
November. Ottawa chose to hang onto their first-round pick in this year';s
draft, which wound up being Brady Tkachuk, meaning Colorado gets the Senators';
 first-rounder next year. So if they mail it in and win the lottery? Well, that
 pick belongs to the Avalanche, and a good young team in the West would get
richer.

Since two-first found picks are thought to be the asking price, and with the
Golden Knights only making this trade because they want the Cup now, Ottawa
would be looking at later picks rather than getting into the lottery. Vegas has
 a bevy of second- and third-round picks to offer as well, since an expansion
team forking over consecutive first-round picks seems outrageous.

But heck, why not?Finishing Touches

One would think the Senators would also be looking for a defenseman who could
slot into their lineup right away in return. Someone like the aforementioned,
recently-signed Colin Miller fits the bill here. Ottawa could also use a young
goaltender to serve as their heir-apparent to aging Craig Anderson, who himself
 is rumored to be on the trade block. The Knights have two enticing young
netminders in Malcom Subban and Oscar Dansk, each of whom look the mold of a
future starter. With Fleury now locked up until 2021-22, one of them is now
expendable.

Other pieces may be involved to help with salary cap considerations, This is
usually when another team somehow gets involved in the deal, but we';re just
entertaining the idea of a two-team trade.

Perhaps the Senators would be willing to take on the dead money that is the
remaining two years of David Clarkson';s contract at $5.25 million per year as
part of the deal to alleviate some cap concerns. And someone like Oscar
Lindberg, without a real role on this Golden Knights team, may be sent as well
for a new opportunity.

So here';s this absolute bonkers trade I have put together:

Vegas Golden Knights receive:

Erik Karlsson

Matt Duchene

Bobby Ryan

Ottawa Senators Receive:

William Karlsson

Colin Miller

Oscar Lindberg

Malcolm Subban

Nick Suzuki

1st-round pick 2019

1st-round pick 2021

2nd-round pick 2020

3rd-round pick 2019

Contract of David Clarkson

The Golden Knights'; opening night line-up would look like this:

Marchessault-Duchene-Smith

Ryan-Stastny-Tatar

Haula-Glass-Tuch

Bellemare-Eakin-Reaves

McNabb-Karlsson

Holden-Schmidt

Theodore-Engelland

The Senators then re-sign Mark Stone, who becomes their new captain. They hedge
 their bets on him, Thomas Chabot, Brady Tkachuk, Colin White, Logan Brown, and
 their new acquisitions and future picks to build a future contender.So the
Question Is...Is it Worth it?

As I said earlier-no! It';s not. But it sure is fun to speculate, isn';t it?

The post What Would Erik Karlsson Cost the Golden Knights? appeared first on
The Hockey Writers.

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