SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP45
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 45  ARLP045
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  November 4, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP045
ARLP045 Propagation de K7RA

At 2347 UTC on November 3 Australia's Space Weather Services issued a
geomagnetic disturbance warning: "Expect Unsettled to Active conditions with
periods of Minor Storm levels in the Australian region for the next UT day, 4
November, if a small coronal hole in the Southern hemisphere will become
geoeffective."

But as of November 3, the prediction from NOAA/USAF for planetary A index for
November 4 and 5 is only 10 and 8.

Over the past reporting week (October 27 through November 2) we saw two days
with no sunspots, October 28 and November 2. Prior to the past week, in recent
memory only October 1 had no sunspots either. Average daily sunspot number for
the week was 9.1, down from 18.7 over the previous seven days.

Average daily solar flux rose, but only slightly from 76.9 to 77.5.

Geomagnetic indicators were slightly lower, with average daily planetary A
index declining from 20.3 to 18.1, and mid-latitude A index from 16.7 to 13.4.

Predicted solar flux is 78 on November 4-7, 75 on November 8-11, then 80, 78
and 75 on November 12-14, 73 on November 15-16, 78 on November 17-18, 77 and 75
 on November 19-20, 78 on November 21-22, 80 on November 23-25, 78 on November
26, 80 on November 27-29, 78 on November 30, 82 on December 1-3, 80 on December
 4-5, 78 on December 6-7, and 80 on December 8-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10 and 8 on November 4-5, 5 on November 6-10,
then 10, 15, 18, 10 and 8 on November 11-15, 5 on November 16-18, then 8, 15,
54, 42 and 24 on November 19-23, then 18, 22, 18, 15 and 12 on November 24-28,
then 8 on November 29 through December 1, then 5 and 8 on December 2-3, and 5
on December 4-7.

Looking at our three-month moving average of sunspot numbers, the average
sunspot value for August 1 through October 31 was 39. Over the same three-month
 period in 2015 the average was 64.5, and in 2014 it was 108.4.



Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sent us this on
October 3.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period November 4-November 30, 2016

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on November 7-8
Mostly quiet on November 4, (9-10), 15-18, 29-30
Quiet to unsettled on November 5-6, 11, 14, 19, 27-28
Quiet to active on November 12-13, 20, 24
Active to disturbed on November 21-23, 25-26

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected: on November
5-6, 12-13, 20-26

"Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement."



Richard Dillman, W6AWO of Point Reyes Station, California saw the reference to
the ARRL National Parks on the Air activity by N8II in last week's bulletin,
and wrote:

"I hope/assume you have bagged K6KPH, one of the only permanent stations in a
national park (Point Reyes National Seashore). With separate 1.5kW transmitters
 and gain antenna for each frequency we
get out pretty well - propagation permitting!  We're on the air each Saturday
and Sunday from 1200 to about 1700 Pacific time."

Indeed, I see their weekly Saturday schedule listed under Events on the NPOTA
web site:  https://npota.arrl.org/nps-events.php



Jimmy Mahuron, K9JWJ, submitted this reference to construction of a VLF
receiver for detecting Sudden Ionospheric Disturbances:

https://www.aavso.org/improved-gyrator-tuned-...



Regular contributor David Moore sent this about recent aurora:

https://shar.es/1I0Ivj



Richard Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts sent this a week ago, just after
 I submitted last week's bulletin to Newington, on October 28:

"6 Meters has been pretty quiet here, brief Es opening on October 25 at 1754Z
one hour. Worked 5 stations in GA and one AL Es.  Been hearing some activity on
 50145 Meteors.

"There was a brief Au opening on the October 26 around 2200Z, called CQ with
beam to the north but no takers."



Ran across this from Discover Magazine about solar seismology:

http://bit.ly/2f7cvGU



Jeff, N8II reports again this week from West Virginia, this time about last
week's CQ World-Wide SSB DX Contest.

"Starting Monday before the contest, the K index was 4 or higher almost all
week and storm levels moderate w/G3 or strong(?) w/G4 were common. Despite
this, paths from east through south to west were not that bad up to 15 meters.
I was able to work a loud JE1 in Japan on 20M SSB one night and JA1NUT on 20 CW
 another both around 2220Z and small portable/mobile stations from National
Parks were mostly near normal signal levels, very workable. Thursday seemed to
be the worst day and Friday 2nd worst.

"The forecast for the CQ WW DX contest was for disturbed conditions, and boy
did we get that and more! A week before the CQWW last Sunday 15 M was wide open
 to every corner of Europe at 1330Z, but
absolutely no northern EU or even zone 16 worked in the WW. The zones missed on
 all bands were 18 (heard RW0A, Russia on 40), 22, 23, 26, 27, 28, 29 (nothing
heard from Australia on 20 LP and looked),32 (only heard ZM1A, New Zealand
calling a station), 34, and 37 (worst ever missed list with serious effort). My
 best/biggest surprise DX QSO was VR2, Hong Kong on 40 M over the south
magnetic pole after sunrise.

"The other big surprise was EU on 10 M from 1519-1553Z on Sunday working Spain,
 Portugal, France, and Balearic Is. Also worked on 10 were Canary Is. (many),
Morocco, South Africa, Cape Verde Is.,
Senegal, Ceuta, and Ascension Is. 10 never seemed to open west farther than
Mexico, no Hawaii. Queensland, Australia was worked 3 times around 21Z on 15 M.
 Even 20 never opened well to northern EU; Poland and Belarus had deep polar
flutter on 20 Sunday morning, but I made the QSOs. The low bands were pretty
much a disaster with high absorption. Everything past zone 33 in NW Africa was
weak on 40 both Saturday and Sunday evenings. I did work a VK4, Australia on
both 40 and 75 M, and T32AZ on Christmas I. (south of Hawaii) 75 M.  There were
 thousands of Russians active, and I worked none at all in my 24 hours of
operating except RW0CN on 20 M around 22Z Saturday on the Kamchatka peninsula
near Alaska! Alaska was worked around 20Z on 20M only. UP2L, a big station in
Kazakhstan saved me from missing zone 17 on 20M around 1230Z Sunday.

"There were some pluses against the obvious minuses. Sporadic-E opened 10
meters to almost all of the Caribbean early Saturday morning with S9+ signals.
At the same time there seemed to be Es from central to west EU on 15 (stations
running at very high rates). There was also strong auroral Es Saturday evening
to the north on 20/40 with booming VE2s and 3s, but no big over the pole
opening. I did work about 6-8 Japanese on 20 with weak signals then as well as
zone 19.  It seemed like Puerto Rico/Virgin Is. was in a sweet spot for
propagation and they were well represented with activity. Propagation to the
south did seem enhanced at times especially on 10 M. From my perspective, the
most under represented country was New Zealand (no QSOs, worked a passel in WPX
 CW), and the biggest turnout was Chile with an explosion of new calls on 10
and 15 Sunday afternoon/evening. The Canary Is. were also out in big numbers.
Thank goodness there were many Spanish stations active, but turnout from France
 and Italy did not seem quite up to normal.

"Most DX operators did a very good job under challenging conditions; 20 was
absolutely jammed with south EU most of Sunday as was 40 at the start. I missed
 many northern/eastern European countries that I normally always get on 20 and
15 meters. On 20 I worked only one station each from Denmark, Sweden (barely),
and Norway, and two from Finland, no Aland Islands. Many Caribbean/Central
America/South America stations were worked by me on all 3 higher bands as there
 was less to work in Europe, and many other NA stations were looking south."

Thanks, Jeff!


In closing, the ARRL CW Sweepstakes is this weekend. See
http://www.arrl.org/sweepstakes for more information.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
 an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph... An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag...
 More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for October 27 through November 2 were 12, 0, 16, 12, 12, 12,
and 0, with a mean of 9.1. 10.7 cm flux was 78.9, 79.2, 79.1, 76.2, 76.7, 76.5,
 and 76, with a mean of 77.5. Estimated
planetary A indices were 28, 17, 27, 18, 11, 11, and 15, with a mean of 18.1.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 18, 16, 18, 13, 8, 9, and 12, with a mean
 of 13.4.

NNNN
/EX

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