SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP24
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 24  ARLP024
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 10, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP024
ARLP024 Propagation de K7RA

I thought it was too early in the decline of this solar cycle to start seeing
days with no sunspots (when the sunspot number is zero) but I was wrong.

There were no sunspots on June 3 to 6.  2015 had zero spotless days, 2014 had
just one, and there were no spotless days in 2012 and 2013. There were just two
 spotless days in 2011, so we have already seen twice the number of spotless
days that 2011 had.  2010 had 51 spotless days, and 2009 had 260 spotless days.

The last time there were four or more spotless days was December 18 to 24, 2010
 when there were no sunspots for an entire week.

The average daily sunspot number dropped to 7.7 this week, from 33 the week
before.  Average daily solar flux went from 87.4 to 80.7. Geomagnetic
indicators were up slightly, with planetary A index going from 8.9 to 11.6 and
mid-latitude A index from 9 to 9.4.

As of Thursday, June 9, sunspots and solar flux both seemed to be recovering.

Daily sunspot number on June 7 to 9 was 12, 15 and 22, and daily solar flux was
 78.5, 80.1 and 85.2.

Predicted solar flux for the near term is 85, 90 and 95 on June 10 to 12, 90 on
 June 13 and 14, 95 on June 15 and 16, 90 on June 17 to 20, 85 on June 21 to
24, 80 on June 25 to 28, 78 on June 29 through July 4, 82 on July 5 to 7, 85 on
 July 8 to 11, 90 on July 12 to 17 and 85 on July 18 to 21.

Predicted planetary A index is 8, 14, and 18 on June 10 to 12, then 12, 8 and 6
 on June 13 to 15, 10 on June 16 to 18, 5 on June 19 to 22, then 10, 12 and 8
on June 23 to 25, 10 on June 26 and 27, 5 on June 28 through July 1, then 25,
20 and 8 on July 2 to 4, 5 on July 5 to 8, 12 on July 9 and 10, then 8 on July
11 and 12, then 5, 15 and 10 on July 13 to 15, and 5 on July 16 to 19.

Petr Kolman, OK1MGW of the Czech Propagation Interest Group sends his
geomagnetic forecast:

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on June 19 and 20, July 1
Mostly quiet on June 15 and 16, 21 and 22, 29 and 30, July 5 and 6
Quiet to unsettled on June 10, 14, 25, 28, July 4
Quiet to active on June 11 to 13, 17 and 18, 23 and 24, 26 and 27
Active to disturbed on June (18), July 2 and 3

Increases of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on June 11 to 13,
17 and 18, 23 and 24, 26 and 27, July 2 and 3.

Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.

Average daily solar flux over this past week was 80.7, but back in December
2010 that week of no sunspot numbers had an average daily solar flux of 79.3,
very close.

Sunspot numbers are somewhat subjective, based on a visual count of sunspot
groups, the number of sunspots in those groups, and the total area covered by
sunspots.

Solar flux is an actual measure of one type of radiation reaching us from the
sun, radio energy with a wavelength of 10.7 cm, or 2.8 GHz. This is supposed to
 give us a clue about how much our ionosphere is being charged, although x-rays
 have greater significance.  Also remember that because the distance from earth
 to the sun varies slightly throughout the year, this affects the solar flux
number because it is weaker when we are farther away.

We are only two weeks away from Field Day weekend, so what conditions might we
see on June 25 and 26?  The predicted solar flux for June 24 to 26 is 85, 80
and 80, while the predicted planetary A
index is 12, 8 and 10, which is not bad.

We are including Friday in the data report, even though Field Day only runs
from 1800 UTC Saturday, June 25 until 2059 UTC Sunday, June 26 because Friday
conditions should affect conditions on Saturday.

We received this from N8II on June 9, which he titled "Late WPX Report":

"Recently the solar flux has dropped substantially to 80 as of today and I
heard no signals on 15 meters an hour before sunset here.  It was over 100 as I
 recall during the WPX CW contest May 28 and 29 and the band really came to
life for the contest.

15 meters sounded so good Friday night, I decided to try single band.  I never
have heard so many New Zealand prefixes as I worked Friday evening, ZL1, 4,
ZM1, 2, 3, 4 and there were multiple ZL1's and 4's active.  To boot I worked
5W1 (western Samoa), WH6, NH7, KH6 x 3, VK2, 3, 4, 6 (though on 15 meters),
VK7, JA2, 3, JH4 (Japan, all weak).

The biggest surprise was a loud EA3 in Spain with my Yagi west (off back).

CA stations were noticeably weak most of the evening as were some 7's.  I
closed out the evening with an A31 at 0230Z with 135 QSO's in the log.  At
1747Z I found almost no EU (did get A60, United Arab Emirates) and not many USA
 stations either, so I bagged it in after 8 minutes.  A check of the band at
2025Z revealed not only southern EU, but loud northern EU, UR, and UA6 area
stations. About the only areas missing were North Russia, France, Netherlands,
and British Isles.

I logged several Lithuanians, Swedes, and Finns (Aland Is. very loud).  The
activity died off by 2120Z, but I was still working a mixture of EU and
Caribbean/SA up until 2154Z when I worked a loud
Sicilian and QRT'ed for dinner.

Conditions from 2330Z were similar to the day before with a weak JA opening
from 0151 to 0211Z when I QRT'ed.  Of note was a S7 Finn at 2340Z or 0234 local
 in Finland!  Again CA was weak most of the evening, but there were some nice
prefixes to the south like XR0Y (Easter Is.) and T49.

Sunday AM I missed a good opportunity, because the band opened well much
earlier to EU than it ever has for weeks!  Signals were loud from all of EU at
my 1253Z start and even a RU9 was loud.  UP0
(Kazakhstan) was S9+ at 1416 and I found XW1 Laos, very rare from the east USA!

Conditions seemed the best at 1300Z, but I was running stations fairly well off
 and on thru 1515Z.  This included two western Siberia area QRP stations.

Signals from the Baltic states and Finland were louder than stations farther
south at times.  Again 15 closed early to EU about the time the sun was setting
 on the EU side or even earlier.  By 1800Z, most of EU had died out and the few
 stations north of the Med area worked were weak and fluttery.

However there was good activity to the south and several stations in the
Carib/SA area were running with low numbers sent.  I spent over an hour picking
 off new prefixes mainly to the south.

At 2100Z a few stations from Black Sea Russia and many Ukraine stations were
back in along with Turkey, DL, YT, SP, HA, CT, F, 9A50 and I which was not as
widespread as Saturday.  From 2133 to 2156 three weak JA Japanese were worked.

After a nice steak I grilled, it was back on at 2300Z to finally find decent
strength JA's, but activity was low.  USA 6, 7, 9, 0's were all quite loud.  In
 the last 25 minutes E/SE Asia beyond JA
started coming thru working BY5 in South China and very weak two QSO's with
Eastern Malaysia and one Western Malaysia.  It was a thrill to hear loud EU and
 work Asian DX again on 15 after a dreadful month of May with April not much
better.  The only areas not worked were southern AF (no activity?), Indonesia,
and NE Asia west of JA.  This was a huge improvement from what I expected.

There was a good opening on 15 to Indonesia on June 4 from around 1230Z to
1400Z or later.  I logged 4 or 5 stations there all with good signals except
one about S4 with the rarest being a YC6. This was the first time I have heard
them on 15 since mid-April. Sporadic E has been rather poor so far, very few 10
 meter openings that I have been able to catch."

David Moore sent this article about coronal holes:

http://www.livescience.com/54958-nasa-spots-h...

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...  An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag...
  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 2 through 8 were 27, 0, 0, 0, 0, 12, and 15, with a
mean of 7.7.  10.7 cm flux was 85.2, 83.2, 80, 79.1, 78.5, 78.5, and 80.1, with
 a mean of 80.7.  Estimated planetary A
indices were 4, 3, 4, 29, 26, 9, and 6, with a mean of 11.6. Estimated
mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 5, 23, 21, 10, and 6 with a mean of 9.4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey

... We never think before we light the fuse.
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 * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)