SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP039
ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP39
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 39  ARLP039
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  September 29, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP039
ARLP039 Propagation de K7RA

The past week was a good one for HF propagation. Average daily sunspot numbers
doubled from the previous week, rising from 13.6 to 27, while average daily
solar flux rose from 72.6 to 84.3. Average daily geomagnetic numbers were
lower, with average planetary A index declining from 21.1 to 9.9 and average
daily mid-latitude A index from 17.1 to 7.6.

Last Friday was the autumnal equinox, so we should see a seasonal improvement
in HF conditions.

Predicted solar flux is 91 on September 29 to October 1, 89 on October 2 to 5,
90 on October 6 and 7, then 85, 76, 75, 74 and 73 on October 8 to 12, 72 on
October 13 to 15, then 71, 74, 73, 78, 80, 87 and 90 on October 16 to 22, 95 on
 October 23 to November 2, then 90, 85, 76, 75, 74 and 73 on November 3 to 8
and 72 on November 9 to 11.

Predicted planetary A index is 28, 18, 14, 12 and 8 on September 29 to October
3, 5 on October 4 to 10, 25 on October 11 to 13, then 20 and 15 on October 14
and 15, 8 on October 16 and 17, 5 on October 18 to 21, then 16, 8, 20, 25, 20,
10 and 8 on October 22 to 28, 5 on October 29 through November 6, 25 on
November 7 to 9, then 20, 15 and 8 on November 10 to 12.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 29 to October 25, 2017
from OK1HH.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on October 6, 23
Mostly quiet on October 5
Quiet to unsettled October 3, 10, 16 to 21
Quiet to active on September 29 and 30, October 2, 4, 7 and 8, 11, 14 and 15,
22, 24
Active to disturbed on October 1, 9, 12 and 13, 25

Increases of solar wind, mostly from coronal holes, are expected on September
29 (-30), October (1, 3, 6,) 11 to 16, (17 and 18, 21 and 22, 24,) 25

Remark:
- New activity on the Sun can dramatically change real development, which has
been happening more often lately.
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or lower
reliability of prediction.

F. K. Janda, OK1HH
Czech Propagation Interested Group
OK1HH compiling weekly forecasts since January 1978"



Dr. Tamitha Skov, the Space Weather Woman, has a new video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qVYN0UrSgjY



Recent sunspots:

http://bit.ly/2hAMAwO



Looks like we survived the end of the world again last Saturday, as a new
predicted Armageddon failed to commence. From Phil Plait of Bad Astronomy:

http://bit.ly/2x1FS4X

Of course this report is dated before the September 23 apocalypse, and doesn't
actually report afterward that it didn't happen, but my world seems intact and
I am still here. Are you?



Bob Kupps, HS0ZIA of Chiang Mai Province in Thailand reported on September 25,
"Propagation on 15m was much better than the numbers might suggest - worked
5T5OK, 9J2BO and A25SP on CW all 2 to 3 hours after sunset on Sep 25. Heard
PY1VOY calling the A2 with very strong signals at 1400Z - 3 hours after
sunset."

Be sure to check Bob's page on QRZ.com to see his fabulous location and
antennas.



Rich Zwirko, K1HTV in Virginia reported on September 25, about his adventures
with weak signals via the FT-8 mode. But first, a review:

http://www.iw5edi.com/ham-radio/2283/getting-...

https://w5fc.org/2017/07/15/new-digital-mode-...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QoCngsKW9tc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3iuPyIFhco

From K1HTV, "On Sunday September 24 propagation on the 15 meter band was very
good to Europe, the Middle East and Africa and the 21.074 MHz FT8 frequency was
 packed. The next day, September 25 around 2200 UTC, while listening to 7.074
MHz, the 40 meter FT8 frequency, the band seemed to be in pretty good shape
with many European stations being decoded. Running 75 Watts and a wire antenna
on 40M, I managed to work VK6RZ and VK7AP both via the long path.

Switching to 20 meters, as European FT8 stations started to fade out around
0000Z, the start of the September 26 UTC day, the band started to go long. The
SFI was 90 and the 'K' index was 0. After
working VK6YM via the long path (SE), I moved the beam to the north in hopes
that I'd copy some Asian stations over the northern polar route.

I wasn't disappointed. Over the next three hours, using the new FT8 digital
mode and running 75 Watts to a triband Yagi I worked 16 stations in Asia. 10
stations were in Japan, 2 in Asiatic Russia, 2 in Kazakhstan and HS5SRH in
Thailand. But the best DX of the evening was 9N1AA in Nepal for my FT8 DXCC
country 144. The new FT8 mode has caught on worldwide in a big way. It is not
unusual, during peak hours to simultaneously decode between 20 and 30 stations
during each 15 second sequence, many of them -20 dB or weaker on the
approximately 2 KHz AWGN (Additive white Gaussian noise) channel.

The use of FT8 has resulted in the realization that despite what appears to be
poor propagation, many DX contacts can still be made on the HF bands."



On September 28, K1HTV reported:

"While I'm at it, I thought that you would be interested to know that in the
early hours of September 26 the over the pole conditions to Asia were great.

I was hearing Japan stations until almost local midnight here at my Virginia
QTH. 40 meter conditions at local dawn were good enough to work a few VK
stations. I spent the early to mid-afternoon working FT8 stations in Europe,
western Africa and South America, and later working 5W0RA in Samoa and a VK2
station before the band closed.

By evening and the start of UTC Sept 27 the polar route to Asia was still good
enough to work four stations in Japan, but unlike the previous day, the band
shut down hours earlier as conditions started to deteriorate.  During the
daylight hours of September 27, 20M conditions were pretty good to Europe.

But by later afternoon, with the K Index climbing up to 7, the northern routes
started to suffer.  But on the positive side, while the K Index was 7, I gave
60 meters a try and was happy to work 5T5OK (Mauritania) on CW.

Using the FT8 digital mode, a number of European stations were worked as well
as XT2AT (Burkina-Faso), which was another new FT8 DXCC country. This morning
(September 28), with the K index still high, I got on 40M and was pleasantly
surprised when on FT8 I copied 4S7AB. After only a few calls, the Sri Lanka
station was in the K1HTV log for FT8 country 147."

Rich worked 147 countries with this new weak signal mode in a short period of
time, using low power.



For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 21 to 27, 2017 were 22, 22, 12, 22, 36, 40, and
35, with a mean of 27.  10.7 cm flux was 73, 77.5, 81.2, 86.9, 89.9, 90.7, and
91, with a mean of 84.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 5, 6, 5, 4,
and 37, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 5, 4, 5,
5, 3, and 24, with a mean of 7.6.

NNNN
/EX

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