SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP37
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 37  ARLP037
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  September 15, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP037
ARLP037 Propagation de K7RA

At 0005 UTC on September 15 the Australian Space Weather Forecast Centre issued
 a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning.

"The previous geomagnetic warning is extended for two more days. The high speed
 streams associated with the coronal hole is expected to persist for a few
days. If the Bz component of the IMF turned strongly southward for prolonged
periods, earth could experience minor storm conditions. Otherwise, expect
mostly unsettled to active condition for the next two days (15 and 16
September).

"INCREASED GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY EXPECTED DUE TO CORONAL HOLE HIGH SPEED WIND
STREAM FROM 15-16 SEPTEMBER 2017

"GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY FORECAST
15 September  Active
16 September  Active"

Over the past reporting week (September 7-13) sunspot numbers and solar flux
were lower, while geomagnetic indicators were higher.

Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 87.3 to 45, and average daily solar
 flux went from 114.1 to 97.6.

Average daily planetary A index increased from 18 to 27.3, and average daily
mid-latitude A index went from 16.7 to 18.3.

Predicted solar flux is 74 on September 15-21, then 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110,
115 and 120 on September 22-29, 125 on September 30 and October 1, then 120,
115, 110, 100, 95, 90, 85, 83, 81 and 84 on October 2-11, 83 on October 12-14,
84 on October 15, 85 on October 16-17, then 88, 90, 92, 95, 98, 105, 110, 115
and 120 on October 18-26, 125 on October 27-28 and 120 on October 29.

Predicted planetary A index is 28 on September 15-16, 26 on September 17, 12 on
 September 18-21, 5 then 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on September 22-26, 20 on September
27-29, then 18, 15, 12 and 8 on September 30 through October 3, 5 on October
4-7, then 7 and 12 on October 8-9, 30 on October 10-12, 20 and 10 on October
13-14, 5 on October 15-16, then 8, 5, 5, 8, 5, 8 and 5 on October 17-23, 20 on
October 24-26, then and 18, 15 and 12 on October 27-29.

Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 15-October 11, 2017 from
 OK1HH:

"Geomagnetic field will be: Quiet on September 23-24 Mostly quiet on September
20, 27 Quiet to unsettled September 19, 21-22, October 4, 6 Quiet to active on
September 15, 17, 25-26, 30, October 1-3, 7-8, 10-11 Active to disturbed on
September 16, 18, 28-29, October 5, 9

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on September
15-19, 27-29, October (1,) 2-5, (8)

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction.

"F.K. Janda, OK1HH Czech Propagation Interested Group"



Here are videos from September 7 by Dr. Tamitha Skov. The second one is an
hour-long program in which she answers viewer's questions about recent
activity. It contains lots of great information. I love it when she tries to
set the record straight about HAARP, that no, it is not a tool for mind control
 or messing with the weather:

https://youtu.be/oMAl5b5cXm0

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ahMAY_GRxpA



A Newsweek article about seven massive solar flares in seven days is available
at:

http://www.newsweek.com/solar-flares-sun-hot-...



Chuck Zabriskie, KE5HPY of Houston, Texas reported on September 9:

"Thought one could add WSPR to the propagation aids discussed in your latest
report. With the high flux report, I put my homebrew 10m WSPR rx on-line and
happily recorded TI, CE, ZL and multiple VK calls for the first time in a long
while.  Of course those were regular events a couple of years ago but now are
rare enough to me get excited to look at the logs.

"Thanks for all your efforts to keep the community well informed about
propagation."



On September, Jeff Hartley, N8II in Shepherdstown, West Virginia wrote:

"While it has been mostly bad, the very high absorption has settled down at
times to make for some interesting openings.

"I observed a total ionospheric blackout at 1703Z Sunday, followed at 2030Z
with some of the best conditions in the Worked All Europe contest of the whole
weekend from then until the end at 2400Z.
Northern and eastern EU were not workable however on either 20 or 40 except for
 Ukraine and southern Russia on 40M. Signals from Germany to the west and south
 were loud on 20M in the 2100Z hour. I was unable to work any EU at 2400Z
Saturday, very depressed high absorption conditions at that time, despite loud
French signals on 20 in the 2300Z hour."


On September 14 Jeff wrote:

"It has been a roller coaster of conditions with some equatorial paths enhanced
 in the past 9 or so days. The only time I heard Asia during the AADX phone
contest Labor Day weekend was Sunday around 0100Z and that was Kazakhstan. That
 weekend, I primarily operated the CO QSO party Saturday and would say that 20
meters was poor a couple of hours in the early afternoon, but otherwise in
decent shape to CO which is a good distance for us for single hop F2 despite a
fairly high K index. 40 meter signals seemed down a bit especially early
evening, but some mobiles and K8TE operating
portable probably with a vertical and barefoot were easy copy by 2400Z (my
local sunset was about 2335Z). Only W7RF who has a pretty big station was heard
 on 80.

"The CW ops open contest started at 2000Z on 9/2 and there seemed to be some Es
 into the W4/5 call areas; there were many loud signals and western EU stations
 were workable without having to move my main Yagi from the west. Later there
also seemed to be some Es into the Midwest allowing loud signals CO past when
F2 would normally fade; I was still working CO at 0139Z.

"Tuesday 9/5 was an above average day despite fairly high K index. In the 1200Z
 hour on 20 SSB I worked ZS3Y in South Africa long path, VK4FW/P in a park and
VK6JDW Australia, and P29LL Papua New Guinea. Then I checked 30 meters to find
VK4FW/P about 10 dB louder than 20M and also E51JHQ in the South Cook Is. with
a good signal. At 1308Z I tried  a CQ on 15 phone after hearing a fairly strong
 British station on CW and F4BWX a yank living in Royan, France answered saying
 I was the first USA station he had heard on 21300 during over 4 weeks of
monitoring. He was a solid S5 here running only 100W to a dipole. I went on
starting at 1444Z to work several stations in England and Germany on 15M CW and
 phone. The biggest EU surprise was a good signal from Ivan, RA7A in Krasnodar,
 Russia (Black Sea area).

"Then I saw a spot from NC of James, 9V1YC in Singapore on 15M CW and amazingly
 he was a solid S5-6 here and I went right into his log at 1534Z. I also heard
a weak Indonesian station on 17M around 1300Z. This was the best day of the
week/past several months on 15M. After that the flares and high absorption
limited anything non-equatorial.

"On the 7th at 0045Z, I worked special anniversary calls XK150YT and CI1AAA
operating from Whitehorse, Yukon, Canada who was S9, but CQs toward Asia were
fruitless and no spots of Asians were noted. FK8IK, New Caledonia had a good
signal on 15CW at 0051Z. He was worked in NA on 12 and 10M earlier.

"Since then conditions have been fairly poor. The Worked All Europe contest was
 9th-10th and was quite a challenge. The first good opening I found on 20M was
around 2300Z on Saturday evening, but I was gone most of the day. Spanish and
French stations were loud, but no stations were loud enough to hear me on 40
due to disturbed conditions. Sunday morning signals were poor on 20, but I did
manage QSOs with northern Sweden and the Aland Islands along with other EU big
guns. There was a fairly brief limited opening on 15M working UA7K southern
Russia at 1335Z and Spain, Slovenia, Croatia, and Malta around 1445Z. There was
 a total blackout on all bands when I checked at 1703Z with the X8 class flare,
 but by 2000Z signals from Germany, Italy, the Balkans and closer were fairly
normal and I was able work the same areas on 40M in the 2300Z hour, but
activity was pretty low."



So in last week's bulletin ARLP036 we reported a remarkable increase in solar
activity. On the air, HF radio operators reported fantastic conditions, at
least in quieter periods between solar flares.

The average daily sunspot number was 87.3 reported in ARLP036. How long since
we have seen similar activity?


Last year in bulletin ARLP034 on August 19, 2016 the average sunspot number
reported was 73.9, and it was 86.6 in ARLP007 on February 12, 2016, but the
last time we reported a higher average weekly sunspot number than last week's
bulletin was November 6, 2015 when it was 90.3.

Looking back further in 2015 we saw these numbers:

120.9 40  Oct 2, 2015
112.4 33  Aug 14, 2015
104.5 32  Aug 7, 2015
112.4 24  Jun 12, 2015
146.9 20  May 15, 2015
120.9 17  Apr 24, 2015

The number after the average sunspot number on the left is the propagation
bulletin number for that year.

Perhaps we will see a return to this level of activity in 3-4 years, after a
projected minimum in 2019-2020, perhaps in 2021-2022.



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. 
For an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for September 7-13, 2017 were 94, 89, 49, 38, 23, 11, and 11,
with a mean of 45. 10.7 cm flux was 128.5, 116.8, 107.2, 100.2, 79.9, 75.5, and
 75.1, with a mean of 97.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 38, 96, 6, 7,
11, 18, and 15, with a mean of 27.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 23,
50, 6, 12, 8, 16, and 13, with a mean of 18.3.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... Never hire an engineer to fix a leaking faucet.
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