SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP26
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 26  ARLP026
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 30, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP026
ARLP026 Propagation de K7RA

Not much change in the numbers since last week, but all indicators were lower.
Average daily sunspot number moved from 29.4 last week to 20.3 this week, and
average daily solar flux went from 74.6 to 73.6.

Average daily planetary A index went from 9.4 to 6.9, and mid-latitude A index
from 8.1 to 7.4.

Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 30 through July 7, 75 on July 8-14, 76 on
July 15-16, 75 on July 17-19, 74 on July 20-22, 72 on July 23-24, 77 on July
25-28, then 74, 73 and 72 on July 29-31, 73 on August 1, 74 on August 2-3, 75
on August 4-10 and 76 on August 11-12.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 on June 30 through July 1, then 12, 20 and 10
on July 2-4, 5 on July 5-12, then 20, 12 and 10 on July 13-15, 5 on July 16-20,
 then 10, 12, 10 and 5 on July 21-24, 10 on July 25-26, 5 on July 27 through
August 8, then 20, 12 and 10 on August 9-11 and 5 on August 12-13.



Tomas Bayer of the Deptartment of Geomagnetism at the Budkov Observatory sends
this Geomagnetic activity summary:

"Next week, we expect at most quiet to unsettled level conditions only with a
single active episode. The active episodes are possible about June 30 and also
at the end of forecast period.

"Geomagnetic activity increase is possible because of a small equatorial
coronal hole. Nevertheless, we expect the greater activity increase at the
start of the next weekly forecast, i.e. after July 7."

> From F.K. Janda, OK1HH of the Czech Propagation Interest Group:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 30-July 26, 2017.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on July 1, 4-5, 17
Mostly quiet on July 2, 12, 16, 18-20, 24
Quiet to unsettled July 6-7, 10-11, 15, 25-26
Quiet to active on June 30, July 3, 8-9, 14, 21-23
Active to disturbed on July 13

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on July (8,)
9-17, (18, 21,) 22-24, (25)

"Remarks: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction. - As a result of ongoing changes to the
configuration of active areas on the Sun, reliability of forecasts is
temporarily lowered."



Dean Pesnell of NASA says the upcoming solar minimum (over the next few years)
will bring longer lasting coronal holes: http://bit.ly/2sn0Duy



This report is from N8II in West Virginia:

"Going back to June 17, I operated in the WV QSO Party and conditions were
disturbed which may have actually improved conditions for me into the states.

"I worked a total of 892 QSOs with 619 on 20M SSB in 8.3 hours between 1600Z
and 0200Z, with 49 states (no calls from Alaska, but about 6 from Hawaii!), 11
WV counties, and 14 DXCC countries without looking for EU which was fairly loud
 from 1800Z-2300Z.

"There was excellent sporadic-E until about 2400Z with some still toward the
Gulf Coast and FL after that. 20 phone featured direct ionospheric propagation
at some time to all states except AK (maybe), MD, DE, and PA. I was called at
one point from Roanoke, VA which is about 165 miles away and in the first 4
hours I worked many stations in NY and New England. There was apparently no F2
above 20M except to the south on 15M, but I did work Puerto Rico on 10M double
hop Es.

"The other propagation highlight was working a VK2 in Australia on 20 SSB in
the 2300Z hour via SHORT PATH, a first in 47 years of hamming during the Aussie
 morning; long path QSOs are pretty common around 2100-2300Z except in our
summer. I used my 80M dipole in lieu of the 5 element Yagi or tribander fixed
south at times on 20 to get more omni directional coverage as the skip was
short in all directions.  Many NY stations were loudest off the back of my
triband Force 12 Yagi at 60 feet (signals from high angle).

"There was good Es from MI to MN around noon on the 18th on 10M. The highlight
of the week was a multi hop Es opening to Europe on the 19th working F5RAG in
France first at 2111Z also working Spain, England, and Ireland (tremendous
rapid QSB from in the noise to S5) until 2127Z when F5RAG said hello again at
S7 (best signal) then working Northern Ireland an hour later. Wednesday,
Thursday and Friday were pretty quiet with little 28 MHz Es with a few openings
 into TX including 2 Dallas area QSOs on 6M around 1500Z on the 21st.

"Field Day was spent between home and K8EP in the field operating from near the
 foot of a mountain to the west (not the greatest location) near Martinsburg,
WV. I can never remember a FD when the
sporadic-E was so widespread in different directions on 15 and 10M for such a
long duration as 2017!

"There was a high noise level at K8EP on 20M which was found to be a noisy
computer power supply after I left Saturday, but I was very aware of Es to the
west on 20 starting around 2230Z working many MI and 9th call area stations
with OH as the evening progressed as well as some QSOs into New England. When I
 returned to home and fired up at 0215Z, I found W3AO on 15M (distant local) in
 MD first and Bob, W3IDT reported some Es, but 'things are slowing down.'

"Having not worked 15 phone, I started a fast paced run with plenty of callers,
 but prop was limited to mostly W5s (TX was rather weak), 9s, and 0s (no CO,
ND, SD) and 4s in GA, FL, AL, and TN. I switched to 20M around 0300Z and had
nearly perfect coverage to my west from the 9th area and beyond and south from
SC, and TN and beyond running a big pile up with many west coast QSOs. Two KL7s
 in AK called in with loud signals! Without the Es, skip would have been very
long by 0300Z, so many QSOs may have been Es on the east end into F2 out west.

"I returned to the air at 1446Z and single hop Es could not have been much
better in all directions on 15 and 10 meters through 1720Z! I stayed on 10
until 1613Z working stations as close as NY, CT, MA, OH, OH (mobile) and KY.
The band was wide open to New England, but QSO rates into the 9th and 0 call
areas with 4s and 5s to boot were much better.

"I worked CO and AZ on double hop Es, no Dakotas. 15M was even that much better
 than 10 working stations as close as EPA (about 150-200 miles away), NJ, NY,
all of New England, OH, KY, and NC. I was called via double hop Es from CO, AZ,
 NV, CA (many, mostly San Francisco south), and WA as well! In 5 hours total
time I worked 557 QSOs, 272 on 15M and 195 on 10M.

"The few times I checked 6M, there was surprisingly not much Es.

"73, Jeff N8II FM19cj Shepherdstown, WV"



Harry Rudolph, WX8C of Grand Blanc, Michigan sent this Field Day
report:

"Operated from SE Michigan with battery power, running around 75 watts to an
all band dipole. Early Sunday afternoon, local time, made 42, 6 meter contacts
from New England to Florida and then along the Gulf Coast and stretching to
West Texas. Most stations were loud."



Rich Zwirko, K1HTV of Amissville, Virginia sent this 6-meter report:

"On June 25th, for the second time in this month, 50 MHz signals from Japan
were copied at the FM18ap Virginia QTH of K1HTV. The first signal heard on June
 9th was at 2149Z from JR1LZK. The last Japanese station heard was JA9SJI, 2
hours and 22 minutes later at 0011Z June 10th!

"Of the 142 minutes between the start and finish of the UTC June 9/10 opening:
- 25 different JA stations were copied during 42 different minutes.
- The PSKreporter website reported that 7 stations in Japan copied K1HTV.
- 126 lines of data were received from Japanese stations.
- 2-Way QSOs were completed with JH4UYB and JG1TSG.

"During the UTC June 9/10, 2017 opening, 3 or more JA stations were
copied during their one minute transmit periods at:

UTC  - Nr. of stations
2243 - 7
2247 - 4
2249 - 5
2305 - 10
2307 - 8
2309 - 6
2311 - 4
2313 - 4
2315 - 8
2317 - 7
2319 - 8
2321 - 5
2323 - 5
2325 - 4
2335 - 5
2339 - 3

"The second 50 MHz opening between Japan and the K1HTV QTH occurred on June 25
but was much shorter than the one earlier in the month, lasting only 10
minutes. Again, using the JT65 mode, the first station, JP1LRT, was copied at
2325Z and the last copied, ten minutes later at 2335Z was JA7QVI. Using the
JT65 mode, 7 different JA stations were received, JP1LRT, JO1ALS, JK1SQI,
JM1IGJ, JE1BMJ, JN1GTG and JA7QVI. I was unable to make any 2-Way QSOs during
this opening.

"Earlier in the month on June 12th at 1450Z, I copied a CQ by 4X4DK in Israel
on the 50.276 MHz JT65 frequency. But his signals quickly disappeared in a few
minutes before a QSO could be made.

"On June 19, JT65 transmissions from TY2AC in Benin were copied at 1216, 1220
and 1252 UTC. After completing a QSO with another station, Nic copied my call
but lost commercial power and the use of
his PA. He came back on the air running only 100 Watts using a small backup
generator, but was too weak to copy here. By the time commercial power was
restored, the propagation had changed, so the
contact could not be completed.

"The next day, June 20, was another exciting but frustrating day on the Magic
Band. I copied 9K2OD in Kuwait calling CQ at 1324 and 1326 UTC. After a fellow
PVRC member, John, K3AJ, worked Osama, I again called. 9K2OD reported on the
cluster that he had heard me, but we were unable to complete the 2-Way QSO
because the propagation had changed and his JT65 signal faded into the noise.

"I can't wait for the K1JT software development team to complete their work on
a new digital mode that can better handle rapidly changing multi-hop
propagation that is experienced by 6 Meter DXers."



And finally, a report from Scott Bidstrup in Costa Rica:

"The latest on propagation from down here in the single-digit latitudes:

"This year's sporadic-E season on 6 meters here in Central America at least,
has been short but spectacular. It began way later than usual, but certainly
made up for lost time, with reliable openings into W4, starting around the end
of May. By the end of the first week in June, we had been seeing propagation
into Europe on an almost daily basis, at least until about a week ago, when the
 openings have begun to die down, both in frequency and intensity.

"Phil Phillips, TI5/N5BEK and I have been taking full advantage of this, with
my working two new European countries on 6m and his working several more,
sometimes working the same stations for several days running. The first
European opening of the season this year was a spectacular one, which, of
course, happened during my morning nap - when I got up and came into the shack
to check the decodes in the activity window on WSJT-X, I astonished and
dismayed to discover that I had just missed working both Gibraltar and Slovenia
 - proof positive that, on 6m at least, when you snooze, you can sure lose. Big
 time.

"In discussing this during our early morning coffee klatch on 75m a few days
ago, Phil and I concluded that it's not that the band has been in spectacularly
 good shape this year, in fact it's probably been poorer than in most recent
years. Rather, it's been that the JT65 protocol makes the very weak openings
sufficient to establish QSOs where none would have otherwise been possible on
SSB or even CW. Contacts into both Belgium and Germany this year with my
peanut-whistle station running 60 watts into a 5/8 vertical, would not have
been possible on SSB, and unlikely even on CW - but when a QSO can be completed
 at a signal-to-noise ratio of -25dB, much more is possible. JT65 has improved
my 6m country and states totals rather significantly this year, particularly
for Europe. So far, I've had only one SSB contact into Europe this year, but
have had an abundance of JT65 contacts. Increased states totals, too, have been
 made possible by the use of JT65 - I've added several new states to my total
since getting on JT65 late last year. Even better results will likely happen
when the new, faster protocols that Joe Taylor is working on, are finally ready
 for 6m prime time and become widely adopted.

"MSK144 via Es extension has produced some interesting results here on 6m
recently as well. There are very few stations on MSK144 within one-hop range of
 me as you would expect (in fact, other than Phil, I don't know of any), mostly
 because the population is so sparse within the one-hop range, so trying to do
meteor scatter within the one-hop range is pretty much a waste of time, and
trying to do a coincident double-hop means working against the stubborn laws of
 probability. I've left the receiver running for a week at a time and have not
seen a single decode other than tests and CQs from Phil.

"But when there is heavy sporadic-E activity along the Gulf Coast, the
situation can be quite different - decodes of Stateside stations, usually in
the Midwest, can occur with regularity, and Phil has managed several contacts
with that method, though I have not managed it yet so far. I was the first to
see a signal (from NZ8D), and try as we might, we were not able to complete,
but Phil was the first to manage a two-way contact via this mode from here.

"Clearly what is happening is the meteor burst near us is being extended via
another hop with the aid of a sporadic-E cloud over the northern Gulf of
Mexico. So far as I know, Phil's success with this mode is the first from
Central America.

"The low bands haven't been anything to write home about lately, as one might
expect from the rather dismal solar activity. Tuning around the 20m band in
mid-day has revealed our mid-day blackout,
particularly intense in the summer months, to be reduced in intensity compared
to recent years - doubtless the result of a lessening of the intensity of the
D-layer ionization that causes it.

"Occasional signals, mostly from South America and Western Europe occasionally
hit S9, which is pretty good for our mid-day break, but there simply aren't a
lot of them. Frequently I can tune from one end of 20m to the other and never
hear more than a half dozen signals, and those from the States are typically in
 the S3-S6 range. What a contrast from my memories of the peak of Cycle 19 as a
 child, when I could tune across any band and never hear a gap anywhere from
one end of the band to the other, on any band I tried. But that was at higher
latitudes (southern Idaho). The good news is that this year, the mid-day break
has been beginning later and ending earlier than in past years.

"A quick tune across both 15m and 10m as I am writing this at 1230 in the
afternoon failed to reveal a single signal on either band. It's beginning to
look like it's 20m or nothing these days, particularly at mid-day. A check of
17m revealed a single JT9 signal. That was it. Under conditions like this, it's
 gotta be monster beams or forget it. But a bit later in the day, when the
D-layer absorption has gone down, the band will open into Europe and signals
can become quite strong, even spectacularly so at times. One must be patient. 
And take one's naps at midday - and hope that 6m doesn't open while you're
doing it.

"73, Scott Bidstrup TI3/W7RI"



If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
 an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 22 through 28, 2017 were 23, 22, 28, 20, 19, 17, and
13, with a mean of 20.3. 10.7 cm flux was 73.7, 73.7, 74.1, 73.7, 73.7, 74.1,
and 72.1, with a mean of 73.6. Estimated
planetary A indices were 6, 5, 9, 11, 7, 5, and 5, with a mean of 6.9.
Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 8, 6, 8, 11, 9, 5, and 5, with a mean of
7.4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
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... I call things as I see them; If I didn't see them, I make them up!
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