SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP23
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 23  ARLP023
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  June 9, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP023
ARLP023 Propagation de K7RA

Big event this week was multiple sporadic-E linkups on 6 meters yesterday.

Average daily sunspot number rose this week from 15.6 to 19.3. This was largely
 due to the fact that there was one zero-sunspot day last week, and no days
with zero sunspots this week.

Average daily A index, planetary and mid-latitude were both 5.6 this week. Last
 week they were 13.3 and 10.6.

Predicted solar flux is 72 on June 9 and 10, 75 on June 11 to 13, 72 on June 14
 and 15, 78 on June 16 to 26, 80 on June 27 to July 1, 78 on July 2 to 8, 80 on
 July 9, and 78 on July 10 to 23.

Planetary A index is predicted at 5 on June 9 to 11, 8 on June 12 and 13, 5,
12, 25 and 10 on June 14 to 17, 8 on June 18 and 19, 5 on June 20 to July 10,
then 10, 12, 25 and 10 on July 11 to 14, 8 on July 15 and 16, and 5 on July 17
to 23.

Field Day weekend, June 24 and 25 shows a changed prediction for June 23 to 25
with a solar flux at 78, and planetary A index of 5 on all three days. This is
improved from last week's forecast in
ARLP022 which projected a higher geomagnetic (A index) forecast and lower solar
 flux.

Our usual Czech source for geomagnetic forecasts is away this week, so here is
another Czech resource with predictions for only the next week:

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period June 9 to June 15, 2017

Quiet:        Jun 9 to 12, 14 and 15
Unsettled:    Jun 13 and 14
Active:       Jun 14 and 15
Minor storm:  possible Jun 15
Major storm:  0
Severe storm: 0

Geomagnetic activity summary:

Except the last days, we expect at most quiet to unsettled conditions till the
next week. From June 13 and 14 the unsettled conditions may be more frequent
but the general activity forecast should remain at the quiet to unsettled
level.

Because the last flare occurred at the central part of solar disk, we expect an
 active episode at the end of the forecast period. About June 15, active
conditions can also reach minor storm level.

Tomas Bayer
RWC Prague
Institute of Geophysics of the ASCR, Prague
Department of Geomagnetism
Budkov observatory (BDV)"



AC4G, Bruce Smith of Taft, Tennessee wrote:

"Just wanted to inform your readers that on 7 June at approximately 2100z, I
heard PA2M (Netherlands) calling CQ into my area EM65, southern Tennessee. I
went down to 50.081 called CQ (CW) and began working many European stations on
6m. When the bands finally faded after about 2 hours, I ended up making QSOs
with 18 European stations such as PA, G, GM, and GD (were the main areas
worked)."



Jim Wilson, K5ND of Grapevine, Texas wrote:

"I'm sure you're getting plenty of comments about the recent openings on six
meters. I've observed daily openings into Europe, with no luck from Texas. But
this afternoon was able to work into Japan for the first time ever, running 100
 watts, JT65, into a Moxon antenna at 25 feet.

I wrote up my experience, along with screen shots, at
https://www.k5nd.net/2017/06/six-meters-once-...

I look forward to hearing what your other readers are experiencing.

73

Jim Wilson
www.k5nd.blog"

According to Rick Lindquist, WW1ME, K5ND is the organizer of the annual Boy
Scout Jamboree on the Air. Check out the K5ND bio at QRZ.com, and of course his
 blog at www.k5nd.blog.



Dick Ferry, K2KA of Westford, Massachusetts wrote:

"On June 7, 2017 was another epic opening on 6M. I have never seen the band lit
 up like that before. NA working NA, mid-west NA working EU. I worked 32 NA
stations (wasn't hearing EU) and 2 new states (Idaho and Wyoming). All signals
were strong. Mid-west was working JA too, so was EU. Wall to wall stations
2230Z to well beyond 2359Z.

Today June 8 the band has been open all morning again, but there does not seem
to be as much activity. We'll see how it goes.

Hoping these great conditions extend into the weekend during the ARRL June VHF
test."



W3IUU wrote:

"SWPC.NOAA.GOV does some nice alerts, watches and warnings for ionospheric and
flare events above the R1, S1 or G1 levels. I should have saved the report for
May; it is in reverse chronological order for a month at a time. Anyway, it
showed that the K index went to 5 just after 2200Z on the May 27, as I
remember, to 6 after 2300Z, and to 7 at I think around 0430Z.

Around 0300Z we had strong signals from the Washington, DC area to several
points west on 20, and to the west coast and out to ZL and VK on 15. WWV was
very loud on 20 MHz, with some flutter on their signal; but not really audible
on 25 MHz. One Texas beacon was still copiable on 10 meters; I probably missed
a lot of 10-meter action before or after that time.

Having heard some of this during severe disturbances in the late 1950s while
living in Iowa, I think some of this is auroral E layer propagation, multi-hop
in some cases. At least the E layer needs to be factored into the mix.

73,
Lloyd Rasmussen, W3IUU, Kensington, MD
http://lras.home.sprynet.com"



George Hall, N2CG of Saddle Brook, New Jersey wrote in a message titled "June 7
 2017 Long Hours of Single and multi-hop 6 meter E's openings":

"I'm located in Northern New Jersey FN20wv and I knew earlier in the day on
June 7th that there was ongoing US East Coast and Midwest 6m openings to Europe
 by observing the spotting websites on my tablet at work. However by the time I
 got home from work at 6 PM EDT (2200Z) the band shifted to single and double
hop Es openings over a large part of the US and Canada.

A few minutes after 2200Z I turned on my rig and I immediately started hearing
the VE4VHF beacon in Winnipeg, MB EN19 on 50.036 MHz with a true 599+ signal
report. Shortly after I began tuning around and began hearing several more
beacons, all with RST 589 to 599+ signals as follows: W9JN/B 50.062 MHz EN54,
N8PUM/B 50.068 MHz EN66, and K0KP/B 50.073 MHz EN36. So, based on the signal
strength of these beacons I knew I was in store for a good 6m band opening but
had no idea how long this opening would last.

During the course of the next 6-1/2+ hours I worked on CW or SSB mode stations
in WA, OR, MT, ID, WI, MN, IL, KS, MO, TN, KY, GA and AL. I most likely would
have easily worked more stations but I had to go QRT for over 2 hours and when
I got back on the air at 0035Z (08 June) I thought perhaps the "wireworks"
would be over... but that was NOT the case. I was pleasantly surprised to hear
the band was still wide open to the Midwest as well as the Pacific Northwest.
Around 0130Z I started hearing the N0LL beacon on 50.078 MHz in EM09 and
remained coming in to my QTH for over 2 hours with signal strength ranging from
 RST 559 to 579.

I don't work the JT digital modes but I know those ops were also very busy
because I monitored their frequencies (50.276 to 50.280 MHz) several times
during the opening and I could hear their warbling signal tones indicating much
 JT digital mode activity.

The 2017 Es Season started off very slow for me and I missed the big Es opening
 to Europe and elsewhere when I was attending the Hamvention in Xenia Ohio a
few weekends ago. This June 7th Es opening sure made up for my slow start of
this year's Es Season for me."


For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag...  More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for June 1 through 7, 2017 were 18, 19, 22, 23, 22, 18, and 13,
 with a mean of 19.3. 10.7 cm flux was 75.7, 78.2, 77.9, 77.7, 79.4, 75.4, and
75.5 with a mean of 77.1.  Estimated planetary A indices were 7, 5, 9, 3, 5, 5,
 and 5, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 6, 9, 3,
5, 5, and 5, with a mean of 5.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... Can I help it if everyone else is wrong ?
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