SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP18
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 18  ARLP018
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  May 5, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP018
ARLP018 Propagation de K7RA

Each of the weekly solar and geomagnetic indicators that we track were lower
this week. Average daily sunspot number dropped 10.6 points to 25.1, and
average daily solar flux was 4.5 points lower
than the previous week at 76.9.

It is comforting to see though that we have not witnessed a day with 0 sunspots
 since April 17. Average planetary and mid-latitude A index were both 5.6, down
 from the previous week which had planetary A index at 26.4 and mid-latitude at
 18.4.

The A index is expected to remain quiet until May 17-20.

As of Thursday night, May 4, the predicted solar flux is 76 on May 5-8, 74 on
May 9-12, 75 on May 13-14, 80 on May 15-18, 85 on May 19-21, 80 on May 22-23,
77 on May 24-27, 75 on May 28-30, 73 on May 31 through June 8, 75 on June 9-10,
 80 on June 11-14, 85 on June 15-16, and 88 on June 17.

Predicted planetary A index is 5 and 8 on May 5-6, 5 on May 7-9, then 8, 5, 8,
8, 5, and 8 on May 10-15, then 15, 30 and 25 on May 16-18, then 45, 50, 15, 10
and 8 on May 19-23, then 5 on May 24-27, then 12 and 8 on May 28-29, 5 on May
30 through June 1, 8 on June 2-4, and 5 on June 5-10, then 8, 15, 30, 25, 45
and 50 on June 11-16.


Also related to planetary A index is the OK1HH bulletin from the Czech
Propagation Interest Group:

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on May 10, 14-15,
Mostly quiet on May 9, 13, 16, 25-30
Quiet to unsettled May 5-6, 22-24, 31
Quiet to active on May 7-8, 11-12, 19-21
Active to disturbed on May 17-18

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on May (5-9,)
 16-19, (20).

"Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement and/or
lower reliability of prediction."

Remember, you can get a new and revised 45-day forecast for solar flux and
planetary A index daily, usually after 2100 UTC from NOAA at,
ftp://ftp.swpc.noaa.gov/pub/forecasts/45DF/ .


Dr. Tamitha Skov released a new space weather video commentary yesterday:
http://bit.ly/2pdyRv7 .


Bob Kile, W7RH of Las Vegas, Nevada noticed a nice sporadic-E 6 meter opening
on May 3:

"Spring is here and so was the first sporadic-E propagation on 6m for the
season. There were openings on 6m from the SW to mid-west on May 2nd and 3rd. I
 happened to be listening on May 3rd when the band opened up at about 00:00 to
the mid-west. Beacons were copied in Colorado, Oklahoma, Texas and Kansas. I
could not hear the guys in California but a few in southern Arizona could be
heard at times.

"Stations worked were in West Texas, Wyoming, Idaho and Colorado. Of special
note two stations in Cheyenne, WY WY7HR and WY7KY were solid copy for several
hours when the band finally closed about 0200 UTC."

Bob at his home QTH is using a 3 element Yagi on 6 meters mounted low on his
patio. But I think more interesting is his HF remote base station literally in
the middle of nowhere in the Northern Arizona desert, a good distance northeast
 of Seligman, and approximately 240 miles from Bob's home in Las Vegas.

You can check his QRZ.com listing or http://w7rh.net/ for a deeper rundown.


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
 an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for April 27 through May 3, 2017 were 23, 35, 34, 33, 11, 25,
and 15, with a mean of 25.1. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 78, 77, 77.4, 75.3, 77.2,
and 74.9, with a mean of 76.9. Estimated
planetary A indices were 7, 6, 6, 6, 5, 5, and 4, with a mean of 5.6. Estimated
 mid-latitude A indices were 10, 6, 6, 6, 5, 4, and 2, with a mean of 5.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

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