SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP03
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 3  ARLP003
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  January 20, 2017
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP003
ARLP003 Propagation de K7RA

Last week's Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP002 featured zero sunspots for
the entire seven days.

This week (January 12-18) the average daily sunspot number rose to 22.6.

Average daily solar flux rose from 72.5 to 77.1. Average planetary A index
declined from 14.3 to 6.

Predicted solar flux is 80 on January 20-23, then 78, 77 and 75 on January
24-26, 77 on January 27 through February 1, 76 on February 2, 75 on February
3-8, 76 on February 9, 77 on February 10-14, 78 on February 15, 80 on February
16-21, 78 on January 22, and 77 on January 23-28.

Predicted planetary A index is 15, 12, 10 and 8 on January 20-23, 5 on January
24-26, then 12, 15, 7, 10, 12 on January 27-31, then 16, 18, 20, 16, 12, 10 and
 8 on February 1-7, and 5 on February 8-12, then 8, 22 and 18 on February
13-15, 16 on February 16-18, then 12 and 8 on February 19-20, then 5 on
February 21-22 and 12, 15, 7 and 10 on February 23-26.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period January 20-February 15, 2017 from
 F.K. Janda, OK1HH.

"Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 25-26, February 10, 13-14
Mostly quiet on January 24, 30, February 6, 9, 11-12
Quiet to unsettled on January 23, 27, 31, February 1, 3
Quiet to active on January 20-22, 28-29, February 7-8
Active to disturbed on January February 2, 4-5, 15

"Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on January
20-21, (22-25,) 26, (31,) February (1-5,) 9, (15)

"Remarks:
- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.
- Observed indicia of upcoming MAJOR CHANGES in solar activity!
  Therefore, the current forecast is less reliable.

"F. K. Janda, OK1HH"


Time now to examine the average daily sunspot number for 2016, which was 36.8.
Starting from Solar Cycle 24 minimum in 2008, annual average daily sunspot
numbers were 4.7, 5.1, 25.5, 80.1, 82.3, 97.1, 121.2, 70.1 and 36.8.

The January 11, 2017 issue of ARRL Contest Update (current and back issues
available at http://www.arrl.org/contest-update-issues ) mentions a new online
propagation prediction program from G4FKH via RSGB. The link to ITURHFprop is
at http://bit.ly/2jTVHFQ .

The Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array (ALMA) telescope in Chile is
providing new detailed images of the Sun. See http://bit.ly/2ka6JKh for
details.


More info from regular contributor David Moore:

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01...


John Kelley, K4WY wrote on January 17:

"Great timely info as always thank you! I wanted to share with you that on
January 2 on 17 meters I worked E51DMC, VK2DX and ZL4FF all within a spread of
an hour. I was in VA and running 100 watts to a loop and was really surprised
when I checked the SN count, A and K indexes.  Could not have been much worse!
So - I am at a loss as to how to explain the propagation! But I liked it at
least for that hour. 73."

The sunspot number was 0 on that date, and the day prior. There was one brief
sunspot appearance the next day, then none at all from January 4-11. But given
those numbers and daily solar flux (around 72-73) there should be some pretty
good propagation during that period. W6ELprop predicts for that date that ZL4FF
 might receive your 17 meter, 100 watt signal from 1530-1930z fairly reliably.


To VK2DX the prediction shows good propagation 1800-2100z. To E51DMC (South
Cook, I assume?) it looks good on 17 meters from 1700-2030z.


If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
 an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or
ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for January 12 through 18, 2017 were 11, 24, 25, 23, 24, 26,
and 25, with a mean of 22.6. 10.7 cm flux was 75.5, 74.9, 76.6, 77.5, 78.3,
78.6, and 78.6, with a mean of 77.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 4,
4, 5, 3, 4, and 17, with a mean of 6. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3,
3, 3, 2, 2, 3, and 11, with a mean of 3.9.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... My reality check just bounced.
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