SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP51
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 51  ARLP051
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 18, 2015
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP051
ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

Australia's Space Weather Services issued a geomagnetic disturbance warning at
2224 UTC on December 17. It read in part, "Two coronal mass ejections observed
Dec 16 are expected to impact the Earth in sequence late Dec 18 to early Dec
19. Brief minor to major geomagnetic storm conditions may result."

For December 18 they predicted quiet to active conditions, and on December 19
active to minor storm.

Solar activity increased over the past week, compared to the previous seven
days. Average daily sunspot number on December 10-16 was 74.3, up from 48 over
the previous seven days, December 3-9.

Average daily solar flux increased from 102.2 to 118.6.

Geomagnetic indices were also higher, with planetary A index going from 9.9 to
15.6, and mid-latitude A index from 6.6 to 11.3.

The latest prediction from USAF/NOAA forecasters shows predicted daily solar
flux at 120 on December 18, 125 on December 19-21, 120 on December 22-23, then
115, 110, 105 and 98 on December 24-27, 95 on December 28-29, 98 on December
30-31, 100 on January 1-2, 105 on January 3, 110 on January 4-6, 115 on January
 7-9, and then peaking at 130 on January 11-13 before dropping back below 100
after January 22.

Predicted planetary A index is 16, 42, 18, 10 and 8 on December 18-22, 5 on
December 23-26, then 18, 15 and 10 on December 27-29, 5 on December 30-31, then
 15, 20, 18 and 10 on January 1-4, 8, 20, 18 and 12 on January 5-8, and 10, 8,
18 and 25 on January 9-12. Planetary A index then quiets down to 5 on January
16-22.

The OK1HH Geomagnetic Activity Forecast says to watch for quiet to active
conditions December 18, active to disturbed conditions December 19, quiet to
unsettled December 20, quiet December 21-22,
mostly quiet December 23, quiet December 24, quiet to active December 25-27,
active to disturbed December 28, quiet to unsettled December 29, mostly quiet
December 30, quiet to active December 31,
active to disturbed January 1-2, quiet to unsettled January 3, mostly quiet
January 4, quiet to active January 5-6, quiet to unsettled January 7, mostly
quiet January 8, quiet January 9, active to disturbed January 10, and quiet to
unsettled January 11.

OK1HH expects an increase in solar wind on December 16-19, 26-29, January 2-4
and 7-8. The prediction is less certain on December 16-17, 19, and 28-29.

The Geminid meteor shower has the possibility each year of enhancing conditions
 for the ARRL 10 Meter Contest (due to ionized meteor trails) but this year the
 peak occurred after the contest, on December 14. But still, the shower was
predicted to last from December 7-16.

Mark Schreiner, NK8Q of State College, Pennsylvania sent in this report on the
160 Meter contest from two weeks ago.

"I was also operating in the 160m contest last weekend. While I had some
distractions so wasn't able to put in the full amount of time I would have
liked, I did have a blast running QRP on 160m, especially on Friday night from
0100Z to 0200Z when I was camped out on 1800.35 kHz calling CQ. I had run rates
 like I've never seen while running QRP before (on any band!). The peak was 153
 QSOs per hour in a 10 minute window, but that wasn't just a quick flurry of
activity and then it was done, it kept going for about 1-1/2 hours.

"I had a 60 minute run rate of 53 Qs/Hr which is about double my normal rate.
Unfortunately, I was at a birthday party on Saturday evening so wasn't able to
operate during that obviously prime timeframe, but did get back on around 0400Z
 and stayed on through until about an hour after sunrise at 1300Z on Sunday
morning when I shut down.

"I finished with over 400 QSOs and 60 multipliers with 17 hours of my QRP
efforts (and thanks to all who spent time working to pull my signal out!). I
was especially pleased when a station from the Virgin Islands answered my CQ!
Best DX from central PA to the east was GW, to the south was SFL (South
Florida) and C6 (Bahamas), to the west was AZ and OR and to the north was VY2.
I've heard better conditions but it wasn't too bad."

Mark operated the club station at the Nittany Amateur Radio Club, with 5 watts
and a 160 meter half-wave inverted-Vee antenna.

http://www.nittany-arc.net/station.html

Jeff, N8II reported on December 12:

"I am in the 10 meter contest right now, conditions surprisingly good
especially to the states, but openings shorter than last year although good to
7 land from 1630Z until local sunset (2200Z). I
will send a report later. On a usual day there is almost no USA activity in
mid-day (making you think the band is not open); wow was there plenty today!"

On December 17 Jeff wrote:

"I just sent a report on the 10 meter contest, it was not a total collapse (in
reference to N0JK comments - Tad), but conditions were noticeably down all day
Sunday compared to Saturday and the skip zone was much longer, especially to
the south in the afternoon.

"Conditions and activity were a bit better than expected in the ARRL 10 meter
contest last weekend. The K index was running mostly at 3 the first day and 1-2
 Sunday with SFI up to 123 Sunday, but
continuing the pattern I have observed recently, Saturday was actually a
significantly better day.

"Friday evening, conditions were worse than I can ever remember. The band was
almost totally dead as it was after 24Z Saturday evening as well. I worked only
 ME and two FL stations on meteor scatter Friday, the rest were all within
local working range which extends out to OH (barely), CT, NY, and NJ.

"Saturday, my first QSO at 1224Z when I fired up was on CW with a French
station peaking around 120 degrees vs. normal heading of 55 via F2 scatter.
Sunrise was about 1220Z. I continued to work the East Coast on backscatter,
Canary Is., Czech Republic, Netherlands, and Germany all on F2 scatter except
for African stations.

"At 1250Z, the first loud direct path Caribbean station was in the Virgin Is.
Around 1320 a couple of loud Quebec stations called via Es on CW. Still on
scatter beaming 90-120 degrees, numerous DLs in Germany, Switzerland, Croatia,
and Italy were logged until finally at 1353Z a loud direct path CR7 in Portugal
 was found on SSB and many EU QSOs followed until 1600Z when the band rapidly
closed in that direction.

"The northernmost extent of the opening was Scotland, Germany, and Poland with
a good number of Mediterranean area stations including Macedonia and Israel.

"Dutch stations were loud and numerous as well as England for a shorter time.

"Surprisingly, at 1432Z a fairly loud US5 in the Ukraine called (never heard
one in the CQWW on CW). Last year into EU lasted much longer and farther north
into all of northern EU at times. BY 1600Z, stations to the west were loud and
numerous which lasted all day until 2100Z when the band started to fade.

"The skip zone was the shortest around 1700-1800Z right around local noon here
and just west of here.

"The skip zone with loud stations was as short as MS, LA, and MN aided by some
Es which probably also added some loud Texans. But, the band never opened well
to KS, MO, NE (one loud station only),
IA, and SD.

"CA was weak at times, but never almost gone like last year and the Rocky
Mountain states plus WA, OR, and AZ were easy to work as well as VE4-VE7
(Manitoba thru British Columbia).

"Signals were good to the south as well down to Brazil and Argentina, but the
northern Caribbean faded out by around 1900-2000Z. I was called by Hawaii, New
Zealand, and a weak QRP station in Australia, but nothing else from the Pacific
 was heard and I had to QRT at 2120Z before any hope of Asia might appear.

"Sunday was slow for new QSOs and propagation was worse despite better solar
indices. The first sweep of SSB band was devoid of any signals. My first QSO
was a OQ4 in Belgium at 1222Z on CW aided by Es to the Canadian Maritimes which
 lasted until past 1345Z, but activity in Canada was low (was called by PEI).

"I found few new stations in EU and had few answers to CQs. Most signals were
not strong that were worked all morning. Around 1400Z was the peak of EU with
Turkey, Ukraine, Poland, Czech and Slovak Republics calling in on CW.

"Backscatter to the Eastern USA/VE beaming south around 1430-1530Z was strong,
but I had few callers on SSB despite some signals near S9. The northern
Caribbean was also loud that time, but faded out for good by 1800Z.

"After 1520Z, EU was nearly gone working last one EI2 in Ireland at 1539Z. BY
1530Z stations in the far western USA were loud, so I turned my attention that
direction with excellent signals also from Mexico where several new XE states
called in on CW. By 18Z backscatter had gotten weaker and continued to worsen
and only mostly deep SA stations were workable to the south. I did have decent
conditions to CO/NM and farther west and worked quite a few CA stations, but
OR/WA was much weaker than Saturday. The west coast was gone by 2200Z only 10
minutes past sunset and my last SA QSO was with Peru at 2225Z which ended any
ionospheric propagation for the day. Of note was a QSO with VE8NSD in the NW
Territories at 2049Z on SSB, my only Arctic QSO (no AK). I worked all of the
provinces except for Nunavut and Yukon between both modes.

"I ended up with 140 California QSOs, 82 from Arizona, and 73 from Washington,
60 from Maryland (locals) totaling 1317 with 204 multipliers.

"Both QSOs and multipliers were way down from 2014, but there was plenty of
activity except a bit sparse Sunday afternoon."

David Moore sent this link to a time-lapse video from way back in 2003 of a
huge solar flare. Just click on the big black space between the two blue arrows
 to watch at, https://shar.es/1Gg1US .

The snow-like artifacts were caused by radiation from the flare overloading the
 camera in the observatory (SOHO). Check this for more info on SOHO at,
http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/ .

David also sent a link about the NRAO Very Large Array studying solar flares:

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/12/...

More info on the VLA:

http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExp...

I like this image:

http://public.nrao.edu/explorer/vla/TheVLAExp...

We have a couple of reports from Jon Jones, N0JK, first regarding the recent 10
 meter contest:

"The 10 meter band 'collapsed' Sunday afternoon (December 13) for many stations
 in Central and northern South America to North America in the ARRL 10 meter
contest. Steve, PJ4DX posted in his '3830' contest report that he was
frustrated hearing loud PY and LU stations still running mainland USA stations
Sunday afternoon and these NA stations were completely inaudible for him."

PJ4DX is on the island of Bonaire, which lies off the coast of Venezuela in the
 Southern Caribbean.

Two days later, on December 16, Jon wrote:

"A long lasting 6 meter Es morning opening December 16.

"Here in Eastern Kansas, Michigan and Ohio stations were loud including the
NF8M/b 50.076 MHz in EN82 which was 599 at 1710z. It runs just 5 watts to a
ground plane antenna!

"Later the Es moved west and as I write stations in western Colorado and Utah
are working the Pacific Northwest at 1935z."

The beacon station that Jon mentioned in his report:

http://www.nf8m.com/

For the next two weeks, even with the holidays, this bulletin will still come
out on Friday, December 25 and Friday, January 1. There will be no ARRL Letter
during those weeks.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
an explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph... An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag...
 More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

My own archives of the NOAA/USAF daily 45 day forecast for solar flux and
planetary A index are in downloadable spreadsheet format at
http://bit.ly/1VOqf9B and http://bit.ly/1DcpaC5 .

Click on "Download this file" to download the archive, and ignore the security
warning about file format. Pop-up blockers may suppress the download.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 10 through 16 were 86, 77, 89, 74, 81, 64, and 49,
 with a mean of 48. 10.7 cm flux was 108.5, 113.7, 116.7, 122.5, 124, 118.9,
and 126.2, with a mean of 102.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 20, 12,
 8, 22, 17, and 7, with a mean of 9.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were
18, 14, 8, 6, 15, 13, and 5, with a mean of 6.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

"So let me ask you a question about this brave new world of yours. When you've
killed all the bad guys, and when it's all perfect, and just and fair, and when
 you have finally got it exactly the way you want it, what are you going to do
with the people like you? The trouble makers. How are you going to protect your
 glorious revolution from the next one?" - The twelfth Doctor

... The first step binds one to the second. -French Proverb
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 * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)