SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP053
ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP53
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53  ARLP053
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 30, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP053
ARLP053 Propagation de K7RA

The Australian Space Forecast Centre issued a Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning
on December 29 at 0010 UTC.

"A recurrent equatorial coronal hole will soon reach geoeffective location on
the solar disk. The size of the current coronal hole is relatively larger
compared to its characteristics during the previous rotation. The co-rotating
interaction region and subsequent high speed streams associated with the
coronal hole is expected to affect Earth from late 30 December. Auroras may be
visible on the local nights of 30 and 31 December in Tasmania and possibly from
 the coastline of Victoria."

The warning said to expect active geomagnetic conditions on December 30 and 31.

The past two and a half weeks have seen seven days with 0 sunspots, spread over
 four periods of one to three days each.

The first was December 10, then two days over December 16-17, then three days
on December 23-25 and finally yesterday, December 29.

Over the latest reporting week, December 22-28, average daily sunspot number
was 7.6, down from 11 over the previous seven days. Average daily solar flux
changed only slightly from 73.2 to 73.6. Average daily planetary A index
increased from 7.9 to 17.3 and mid-latitude A index from 5.7 to 11.6.

Predicted solar flux is about the same as recent indices. 72 on December 30, 75
 on December 31 through January 6, 79 on January 7-9, 77 on January 10-13, 75
on January 14-19, 73 on January 20-23, 75 on January 24-27, 77 on January 28
through February 1, 79 on February 2-5, and 77 on February 6-9.

Predicted planetary A index is 10, 24, 18, 10 and 12 on December 30 through
January 3, 24 on January 4-5, then 16, 14 and 6 on January 6-8, 5 on January
9-13, 10 on January 14, 5 on January 15-16, then 25, 20 and 25 on January
17-19, 18 on January 20-21, 10 on January 22, 5 on January 23-25, then 15, 10,
5, 8, 10 and 20 on January 26-31, then 22, 16, 14 and 6 on February 1-4 and 5
on February 5-9.

We also have a geomagnetic activity forecast from Petr Kolman, OK1MGW, for the
period December 30 2016 to January 25, 2017.

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on January 10-12
Mostly quiet on January 8-9, 25
Quiet to unsettled on January 1-3, 13-16, 23-24
Quiet to active on December 30 January 6-7, 17-20
Active to disturbed on December 31, January 4-5, 21-22
Increased solar wind from coronal holes expected on December 30-31,
January 4-7, and then 17-22.



Bob Hillman, AG6XC/VE7EK wrote:

"I find the reports of value and look forward to each one.

"While I take the time to dig into the science, I've developed a fondness for
the candid comments of hams reporting their personal experiences.

"All are different and reading them reminds me why I developed a life-long
interest in the hobby.  I like hearing from the guy who perseveres and finds
some DX with a limited station and limitless
patience.

"It keeps alive some of the 'mystery' and 'magic' of the art, with some unique
stories of success, even in light of poor HF propagation conditions.

"Warmest wishes for a Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!"



Don't forget, Straight Key Night happens this weekend. Unpack your old J-38,
Speed-X or Lionel (or any other) straight key and put it on the air. Details at
 http://www.arrl.org/straight-key-night .

Here are a few images of straight keys to whet your appetite for tomorrow:

http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/sop-1...

http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/P1020...

http://www.maxmccoy.com/Western-Electric-Key....

http://farm4.staticflickr.com/3273/2874491297...

http://www.arrl.org/images/view/Soapbox/A%20S...

http://www.i2rtf.com/assets/images/SPARK_SCON...

https://sites.google.com/site/wb9lpu/D40-0258...

http://www.kn5l.net/morse/vibro_straight.jpg

http://www.qsl.net/ur3ijc/ur3ijc_trcvr.jpg

http://www.telegraphkeys.com/images/straightk...

http://bit.ly/2hC0fmK

http://www.wj1b.com/uploads/8/4/0/9/8409204/9...

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the
author at k7ra@arrl.net.



For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals. For
 an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...

An archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag... More good information and
tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.  Instructions for starting or
ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 22 through 28 were 12, 0, 0, 0, 13, 14, and 14,
with a mean of 7.6. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 73.7, 73.1, 72.5, 73.8, 73.7, and
73.3, with a mean of 73.6. Estimated planetary A indices were 23, 24, 14, 21,
22, 11, and 6, with a mean of 17.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15,
17, 10, 12, 15, 8, and 4, with a mean of 11.6.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

Always Mount a Scratch Monkey
Do you manage your own servers? If you are not running an IDS/IPS yer doin' it
wrong...
... No sorrow like the loss of friends.
---
 * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)