SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

ZCZC AP50
QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 50  ARLP050
> From Tad Cook, K7RA
Seattle, WA  December 9, 2016
To all radio amateurs

SB PROP ARL ARLP050
ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

Average daily sunspot number for the past week (December 1 to 7) was 40.9, up
10 points from the previous seven days at the end of November.

Average solar flux changed hardly at all, moving from 82.6 to 82.2.

Average daily planetary A index dropped from 13.6 to 4.9, and average
mid-latitude A index from 10.3 to 3.4

The latest prediction from NOAA and the US Air Force shows solar flux at 75 on
December 9 and 10, 70 on December 11 to 15, 78 on December 16 to 18, 82 on
December 19 and 20, 86 on December 21 to 27, 84 on December 28 to 31, 82 on
January 1, 80 on January 2 and 3, 78 on January 4 to 8, 80 on January 9, 82 on
January 10 to 15 and 84 on January 16 and 17.

Their latest projection for Planetary A Index predicts 20, 18, 12 and 8 on
December 9 to 12, 5 on December 13 to 17, then 8, 12, 16 and 22 on December 18
to 21, then 30, 12, 10 and 8 on December 22 to 25, 5 on December 26 to 31, then
 8, 5, 12 and 15 on January 1 to 4, 20, 18 and 12 on January 5 to 7, 5 on
January 8 to 13 and 8, 12, 16, 22 and 30 on January 14 to 18.

Here is a summary of our recent 3-month moving average of observed daily
sunspot numbers, beginning in January 2016 through the end of November 2016. 
The averages were 55.4, 53.5, 49, 45.3, 43.1, 35.4, 33, 33.5, 40, 39 and 29.6.

Monthly average daily sunspot numbers for November were 22.4.  This is down
from 50.4, 37.4, and 29.1 for August through October.

No matter if we observe smoothed 3-month moving average sunspot numbers or
monthly averages the downward trend in activity is obvious and undeniable.


F.K. Janda, OK1HH sent us the weekly geomagnetic forecast from the Czech
Propagation Interest Group.

"Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period December 9, 2016 to January 7,
2017

Geomagnetic field will be:
Quiet on December 14 to 17, 29 to 31, January 1
Mostly quiet on December 13, 18, 27 and 28, January 2
Quiet to unsettled on December 11 and 12, 26
Quiet to active on December 9 and 10, 19, 23 to 25, January 3
Active to disturbed on December 8, 20 to 22, January 4

Amplifications of the solar wind from coronal holes are expected on December 9
and 10 (11, 14 and 15, 18 to 20), January 2 and 3

Remark: - Parenthesis means lower probability of activity enhancement.  -- F.K.
 Janda, OK1HH"


And now, this news from Jeff, N8II of West Virginia:

"It has been an interesting couple of weeks on the bands.  The CQWW CW contest
was tough on the low bands and the high bands, leaving only 20 meters daytime
and early evening as a good option.  At
first, a disturbance caused all bands to be poor to EU.  It was not until
Sunday AM on 20 that things really got rolling into northern Europe and Russia.
  My first QSO's with Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Estonia, and Latvia took place
then along with a good number or Russians.  I could hear several Zone 33 west
Africans on 160 well Saturday night, but they were still working one EU station
 after another.  10 was barely open working only Morocco (barely), Brazil,
Argentina, Uruguay, Chile, Venezuela, and Costa Rica and all 3 continental USA
zones.

A week later, the ARRL 160 meter test featured good to excellent propagation. 
With low power and limited time I worked all of the lower 48 states except WY
and MT, and 12 DXCC countries including
Ecuador, Costa Rica, EU Russia, Ukraine, Wales, Portugal, Sweden, and Germany.

Another disturbance started Wednesday with 15 meters being almost completely
closed after good signals the 2-3 days before from the UK, Germany, Greece, and
 countries southwest of there along with a S9 signal from Per, LA8LLA at 1551Z
on December 6.

The low bands are finally opening well with some outstanding signals!  On
December 7, starting 0320Z, I worked S9+ 4O/KC0W in Montenegro, then stations
in Lithuania, Latvia, and Slovenia.

But the big excitement was tonight (December 8).  For most of the last week
3B9HA on Rodrigues Island at a heading of 71 degrees and a distance of 9770
miles from here has been spotted on 160, but
nothing heard here.  Tonight they were Q5 copy peaking around S9 and working
quite a few USA stations on 160 meters, but I could not break the pile up. 
Right after giving up on 160, I found them on 80 meter CW peaking S9+ 20 dB!  I
 made an easy QSO at 0110Z.  In all of years on the bands, I have never heard
an Indian Ocean station so loud on 80 meters.  SFI is 79 and K has been running
 at 4 since about noon.  73, Jeff N8II"

This weekend, don't miss the ARRL Ten Meter Contest.  Predicted solar flux is
70 to 75, and planetary A index is projected to be 18 and 12 for both days. 
Last year, the contest was on December 12 and 13, and the solar flux was 116.7
and 122.5, while planetary A index was 12 and 8.  On December 13 and 14, 2014
solar flux was 159.8 and 166.34, while planetary A index was 9 and 11.  During
the 2013 contest (December 14 and 15) solar flux was 164.2 and 156.2, while
planetary A index was 16 and 7.

See contest details at http://www.arrl.org/10-meter .


The ARRL encourages participants to try a new Web Log Upload app for this
contest.  See details at http://bit.ly/2gjBDhL .


Solar activity is lower this year, but ten meters still offers many
opportunities, and is especially attractive to the "Little Pistols" (as opposed
 to Big Guns) contest operators.  For casual operators, ten meters is
especially attractive because of the short wavelengths (and antenna lengths)
involved.

For a half wave antenna cut to 28.3 MHz, that's only 16 feet, 6 and 7/16
inches.  1/4 wave is only 8 feet, 3 inches.  Thus a modest portable or
temporary 10-meter installation can be used.

Here are some simple 10 meter antenna suggestions, some from an ARRL Facebook
post of several years ago.

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis...

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis...

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis...

http://bit.ly/2grIjZv

http://www.arrl.org/files/file/Technology/tis...

http://www.amwindow.org/tech/htm/tenmant/tenm...

http://www.davegardner.org/Ham/TenMeter.html

http://www.eham.net/articles/31424

http://bit.ly/2hsEy3Z

Take a look at GREGOR, all about a European space weather observatory.
goo.gl/9ekORN

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical
Information Service at http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.  For an
explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosph...  An archive of past
propagation bulletins is at http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propag...
  More good information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.

Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.

Instructions for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL bulletins are at
 http://arrl.org/bulletins.

Sunspot numbers for December 1 through 7 were 49, 59, 62, 37, 37, 24, and 18,
with a mean of 40.9. 10.7 cm flux was 84.5, 84.4, 84.7, 82.4, 82.7, 79.8, and
77.2, with a mean of 82.2.  Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 4, 3, 2, 4,
7, and 11, with a mean of 4.9. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 1,
1, 2, 6, and 9, with a mean of 3.4.

NNNN
/EX

)\/(ark

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 * Origin:  (1:3634/12.73)